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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

Ok folks. Time for the 18z happy hour model madness. I wish everyone the best of luck.

Please remember that we all want snow, so please refrain from wishcasting in this thread. Saying things like “I hope it comes north” ,”e19 for the win” really doesn’t add to this thread and clutters it up fast with so many interested in the model runs.

Be patient as the model runs. If you don’t know how to look at them yourself, don’t ask people what they show for your backyard. Not all of the maps are available at the same time. As big of a threat as this is, someone will post the map you desire when it is available.

Also, if the run doesn’t go as you want, please post whining and complaining in the banter or Whambulance threads.

Thanks!
 
GSP AFD:

"The forecast remains conservative
at this time, with nearly climo 30/20 precip prob and a mountain
snow/Piedmont rain arrangement. Perhaps this is something of a
cop-out, but we need better run-to-run consistency before we get
carried away. Stay tuned."
Can't say I blame them. ;)
 
FFC already has snow in the forecast for N GA on Sunday. Here's what they had to say though:
Extended forecast period continues to look like a significant shift
from our persistent warm winter pattern to a more seasonal period.
Medium-range models continue to be in fairly good agreement
concerning the overall evolution of the long wave pattern dominated
by long wave trough across the eastern U.S. Still a good bit of
inconsistency between models, and to some extent from run-to-run
within the individual models, concerning the timing, path and
impacts of the short wave progression through the long wave pattern.
Still looks like we will be watching for the potential for much of
the forecast area to see a chance of wintry precipitation next
weekend, however, due to the uncertainty in the smaller scale
details, that portion of the forecast period continues to see
limited confidence at this time.
Click to expand...
 
gfs_z500_vort_us_20.png

Here comes the energy.
 
Looks like the energy drops in through Montana on this run...and for a moment I thought the cutoff was it again but it's not, there's better energy to the east.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Looks like the energy drops in through Montana on this run...and for a moment I thought the cutoff was it again but it's not, there's better energy to the east.
Click to expand...

That’s way too east and the gfs is still trying to hang that energy over CA. This isn’t going to cut it


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
ULL in Cali was weaker this run of the gfs, 00z will probably eliminate it
 
Comparing this one to 0z I think this will bloom but later than it did on 0z, and that's what it seems like.
 
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