Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

[Jon]

Round two coming down, almost exactly like the first system, energy digging in a great place. Northern stream sitting nicely too, hold on.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

FV3 looks like a hit for eastern SC/NC (it does get close to Columbia).

 

[Jessy89]

The possibilities is very real that this storm. Is mostly for Columbia to the beach. Coastal North Carolina as well


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[Jon]

Day 10.... TX gulf coast and Louisiana coast hit. This suppression is wild, this will go neutral to negative over the gulf of mexico as well. You got to love it.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

It’s more of a possibility for much of the SE, can’t say areas yet as things are going to change

 

[whatalife]

We want to hold suppression as long as possible...the NW trend will commence eventually due to no blocking. What is deciding this track is solely the ridge out west. That's the only thing steering this shortwave. We will have to thread the needle but I like where the SE as a whole sits this far out.


Edit: this run still jackpots central SC and NC. Going to be a good snowfall map I think.

I was going to post for my midlands friends the location of this system from the Euro run was borderline for us for the very reason you just pointed out.


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[Arcc]

We want to hold suppression as long as possible...the NW trend will commence eventually due to no blocking. What is deciding this track is solely the ridge out west. That's the only thing steering this shortwave. We will have to thread the needle but I like where the SE as a whole sits this far out.


Edit: this run still jackpots central SC and NC. Going to be a good snowfall map I think.

My fear is there is something lurking in that active northern stream. Agree completely, need to keep this suppressed in any case at this stage.

 

[deltadog03]

Nah, I'd bet precip would be much farther NW. Probably a historic storm for Montgomery and Chris though.

I would agree. It’s all noise right now, but that look would smash most of SE and def more precip to I-20

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Everyone seems positive that it will trend nw. I hope it does a few days out but my hopes are not up


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You must be new to weather boards

 

[Jessy89]

I would agree. It’s all noise right now, but that look would smash most of SE and def more precip to I-20

The thing I would bring a word of caution to. Is the possibility that the low develops after the front pushes through. Then people behind the front sees nothing.


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[Forevertothee]

I am new I joined this year. But i love the weather. Only thing I’m concerned with Is a low pressure developing after the front passes a lot of people. I could see Columbia to the coast getting this one. We see though anything still possible


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Based on past storms overproducing precipitation this fall and winter, the NW jog in past storms as the event got underway, and it still being 6 days away, to assume any parts of North AL, GA, SC, and WNC are out of play now are premature. My post isn’t disrespectful to your recent post. Gonna be a fun week of model watching.


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[Ethan80963]

GEFS didn’t look good to me

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

It would've been impossible to be as good as 12z was but the GEFS backed waaayyyy off instead of just a little. Gotta hope that is NOT a trend.

 

[Storm5]

Gefs has suppressed members and members that have now system at all . Massive spread


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[GeorgiaGirl]

This sure as heck looks like backing off for everywhere outside far north Alabama, Tennessee, and maybe a few western areas:

 

[jackendrickwx]

This sure as heck looks like backing off for everywhere outside far north Alabama, Tennessee, and maybe a few western areas:

View attachment 12182

.....
Well dang. What could have caused that big of a change?

 

[Jon]

GEFS didn’t look good to me

Well just keep in mind GEFS is not the FV3 ensemble system. It’s actually a pretty good mean considering the GFS itself is completely wrong. It misses the shortwave digging west of Texas. The GEFS ensembles are actually unreliable until the GFS control run starts looking like other guidance. Until it does, I’d trust the euro ensemble system more.


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[pcbjr]

This sure as heck looks like backing off for everywhere outside far north Alabama, Tennessee, and maybe a few western areas:

View attachment 12182

Wasting server space (and folks' patience, perhaps) here, but a casual observation ... never have I seen one of those long range snow maps actually come close ...

 

[Jessy89]

This sure as heck looks like backing off for everywhere outside far north Alabama, Tennessee, and maybe a few western areas:

View attachment 12182

That surely is the first red flag. If we don’t see improvements by Wednesday may have to lock the thread


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[packfan98]

This sure as heck looks like backing off for everywhere outside far north Alabama, Tennessee, and maybe a few western areas:

View attachment 12182

It's not uncommon for storms that actually produce for the SE to backoff some due to suppression at this point. As long as the energy is still there we have a chance. I don't mind the look of the FV3 right now with a nice 1001mb low in the gulf.