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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

As we observed with the most recent CAD event in the Carolinas, big cold highs to the north don't always lead to the low level cold conveyor belt that's needed to continuously resupply and hasten ambient air mass. Likewise, as 1300m and myself showed a few days ago, the lack thereof also doesn't necessarily mean there can't be strong low-level cold advection to favor frozen p-types, there have been many setups like this in the past w/ a huge PV lobe over SE Canada that still had more than enough cold air to work with even with a surface low over the Lakes. I'm not saying with the aforementioned statement(s) that the low-level CAA will be intense here but I wouldn't immediately hinge this aspect of the forecast almost entirely on the appearance or absence of a cold high to our north especially when we're still at a range where the synoptic pattern is capable of changing the surface features considerably between now & verification. This is far from an ideal setup yes (rarely they are) but I don't want everyone to immediately jump to the conclusion we don't have enough cold air to work with simply because they don't see a big surface high to our north. Believe it or not, there's more than one way to get legitimate low-level CAA ingested at a synoptic-scale level into an oncoming surface cyclone.

Bte, it's also not like we don't have a huge lobe of the polar vortex practically lurking in our backyard or anything. The placement, timing, and intensity of this feature in relation to our storm and the fast moving shortwaves pinwheeling around its base will be crucial going forward and we're still no less than 3 to perhaps 4 days out to getting a good handle on this part of the forecast.


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Webberweather53 said:
As we observed with the most recent CAD event in the Carolinas, big cold highs to the north don't always lead to the low level cold conveyor belt that's needed to continuously resupply and hasten ambient air mass. Likewise, as 1300m and myself showed a few days ago, the lack thereof also doesn't necessarily mean there can't be strong low-level cold advection to favor frozen p-types, there have been many setups like this in the past w/ a huge PV lobe over SE Canada that still had more than enough cold air to work with even with a surface low over the Lakes. I'm not saying with the aforementioned statement(s) that the low-level CAA will be intense here but I wouldn't immediately hinge this aspect of the forecast almost entirely on the appearance or absence of a cold high to our north especially when we're still at a range where the synoptic pattern is capable of changing the surface features considerably between now & verification. This is far from an ideal setup yes (rarely they are) but I don't want everyone to immediately jump to the conclusion we don't have enough cold air to work with simply because they don't see a big surface high to our north. Believe it or not, there's more than one way to get legitimate low-level CAA ingested at a synoptic-scale level into an oncoming surface cyclone.

Bte, it's also not like we don't have a huge lobe of the polar vortex practically lurking in our backyard or anything. The placement, timing, and intensity of this feature in relation to our storm and the fast moving shortwaves pinwheeling around its base will be crucial going forward and we're still no less than 3 to perhaps 4 days out to getting a good handle on this part of the forecast.


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Precisely as I was laying it out in the post directly above. No one can say we don't think alike lol.
 
1300m said:
I'm going to offer some thoughts after some of the 00z runs but I 100% agree with you. There's some aspects I'm seeing too that aren't being discussed regarding the northern stream and availability of cold air.
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Agreed. To me, looking at H5 and 850 we should see more cold and more moisture. Again “noise” for now. To me the euro would be more of a blast for many more of it had more moisture over the SE and I think it should. We shall see how this all plays out but color me optimistic.
 
Curious... and don’t get me wrong... but James Spann mentioned on fb a clipper???? For next weekend. I fully realize that things can change for bust or boom in no time ... and that 7 days out is quite a long time especially forecasting winter precipitation in the south... I was just puzzled as to why he mentioned clipper...??? Thoughts? I haven’t seen anyone on here mention clipper. Btw... I hold him in high regard so this is not a slam post by any means...
 
To piggy back above posts.... can’t ask for a whole more with the PV chunk over southern Canada. That should provide enough cold for this. Too far south with that vortex the thing gets squashed ( falls apart and sheared our) or is further south. Vortex north and we have another issue. Lmao
 
deltadog03 said:
Agreed. To me, looking at H5 and 850 we should see more cold and more moisture. Again “noise” for now. To me the euro would be more of a blast for many more of it had more moisture over the SE and I think it should. We shall see how this all plays out but color me optimistic.
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I have been and continue to be. The fact the ops are starting to catch on honestly has not surprised or altered my thoughts at all from a couple days ago. It's going to come down to how the vorts rotating around the PV interact with the wave and how much cold air can get injected, but it's the exact same look with just sharper waves that was there days ago - the models are just now starting to see it. I do agree with this Arctic frontal boundary sitting near the Gulf Stream that explosive cyclogenesis is a possibility, and with Arctic air available, this has potential to be something special but it could also go the other way -- lots of rain, perhaps heavy snow in the climo favored areas -- and right now neither scenario is more likely than the other and as Webb said is still 3 to 4 days away from being determined.
 
Makes no sense to worry over run to run inconsistency this far out in my opinion. I would just be excited to have a shot at this point. When it gets within 5 days you can start salivating or pulling your hair out over trends
 
1300m said:
I have been and continue to be. The fact the ops are starting to catch on honestly has not surprised or altered my thoughts at all from a couple days ago. It's going to come down to how the vorts rotating around the PV interact with the wave and how much cold air can get injected, but it's the exact same look with just sharper waves that was there days ago - the models are just now starting to see it. I do agree with this Arctic frontal boundary sitting near the Gulf Stream that explosive cyclogenesis is a possibility, and with Arctic air available, this has potential to be something special but it could also go the other way -- lots of rain, perhaps heavy snow in the climo favored areas -- and right now neither scenario is more likely than the other and as Webb said is still 3 to 4 days away from being determined.
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Agreed. This almost reminds me of some storms that are going to show grand slams and some will fail trying to sing the national anthem. I personally think this is the BEST shot for multiple areas. I also agree this could get strong with arctic air around the gulf and Gulf Stream waters and an old arctic boundary.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Then this definitely isn't a clipper as it's not originating near the Great Lakes.
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I think the "clipper" is short for "Alberta Clipper", for the general area of origin. Most (90% ) of the time they are embedded in the northern stream and wring out much of their moisture in the upper plains and midwest before exiting off the mid-Atlantic somewhere. NC can do better with them when the PV is a in southern Canada. I think this system is more of a hybrid situation where we do have some sense of a reflection in the Gulf of Mexico, hopefully.
 
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weatherfide said:
I think the "clipper" is short for "Alberta Clipper", for the general area of origin. Most (90% ) of the time they are embedded in the northern stream and wring out much of their moisture in the upper plains and midwest before exiting off the mid-Atlantic somewhere. NC can do better with them when the PV is a in southern Canada. I think this system is more of a hybrid situation where we do have some sense of a reflection in the Gulf of Mexico, hopefully.
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We here in NC will never forget the clipper of late January in 2003 (23rd I believe). Charlotte recorded a record 49 to 1 snow ratio! They got 8.5 inches of snow with only 0.17 inches of liquid equivalent. I walked through 9 inches of snow here without even lifting my feet.
 
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