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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

1300m said:
Depends on how involved the northern stream is. That 06z FV3 run amped up pretty good and was cold all the way to the coast.

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Maybe so, but that track is historically very bad for Central AL and most of GA. I'd love to see that verify though and if we can amp at the right time, it's possible as several of the EPS members yesterday had the same idea.
 
Seeing a very interesting trend on the FV3. The small shortwave over Texas before the one we are watching is trending slower each run. If our shortwave and that one phase it could change things down the road.
 
deltadog03 said:
Gfs is trying y’all
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This thing really still has a chance. The players are all on the field and the potential I not yet dead. Everyone needs to just hold on and let it play out. The only storm I ever saw that don’t waffle all over the place on a hit was Jan 2010. That sucker locked in on all models 5-6 days out. Ever other winner followed a script similar to this so don’t giv up yet.
 
Arcc said:
Seeing a very interesting trend on the FV3. The small shortwave over Texas before the one we are watching is trending slower each run. If our shortwave and that one phase it could change things down the road.
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Brick Tamland said:
I am telling y'all, if the FV3 has a storm, there is hope. It lead the way with the December storm and has been the most consistent one with this storm. It seems to be locking on this one and not letting go.
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Certainly another good test for it

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Arcc said:
If this trend continues, a quicker phase/NW trend is imminent. Everyone except those in SC/NC should run with the FV3 with all they have. Dare say I give some props to the 12z CMC?
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Seems to me that while the surface maps are way different, the driving force does have a defined trend. Good catch.
 
It’s going to be what I’ve thought since yesterday. Columbia to the coast and eastern Nc. Georgia and upstate sc and nc mountains this isn’t our storm


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packfan98 said:
Please put these types of personal pronouncements in the banter thread.
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Sorry I should of worded it differently. This has a very good chance of being a major snow for midlands to the coast up over eastern nc. This does look like the year 2000 storm in a lot of ways.


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This range on the ensembles is so large, this could become a apps runner or a giant bomb off the coast to a suppressed wave that gives us nothing, does anybody know or have a link of the where the energy is for this storm ?
 
It would not be good for the midlands, more likely favored climo areas of sc/nc that get snow, if there was a quicker phase, probably become a “I-85 north” storm but still premature to say anything like this
 
I'd like to see that wave turn the corner a bit sooner, but if that trend starts soon on the FV3, I'm running like the wind from this one as an overall. The endpoint with this one could well be an inland bomb that plasters the western part of the SE.
 
I’ll say this. And I hope it’s not banter material. I was 10 and lived down In Elgin South Carolina in 2000. That storm was not forecasted until the day of. That storm pulled in the cold air knowone had called for it. My point is this is the type of storm that favors Columbia to the coast. I live in the upstate now. But very familiar with what it takes for Columbia snow


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The last storms the fv3 were dealing with cad setups and did a little more iffy with the ice nearly a week ago, but otherwise has done decent with cads, this is a new test for the fv3, will it fold or lead the way ?
 
Watch for the NAVGEM to change at 0z, it can silently show trends, so far it was suppressed
 
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