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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

That would actually be a pretty good track for deeper in the south but the wave is cutting off like I've seen on other models, so that's going to mean this will be a swing and a miss on any precip outside of Texas.

Edit: Outside of Florida of course and actually SE Georgia.
 
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Now there's a 996 just off the north Florida coast. Can't imagine there's too much precip tbh though with it being cut off, maybe I'm wrong.

Edit: 850s are icky though, yikes.
 
996mb off Florida and the northern stream misses. The interesting part though is the next S\W is speeding up.
 
Lack of cold air is a killer but there is still some room for improvement. BTW...It appears to me that FV3 is indeed leading the way on this storm.


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Arcc said:
PV pressing in from the north, it can't go poleward much.
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Kind of a catch 22 for most of us. No strong tappable high pressure so we’re relying on the PV to inject our cold into the equation but the further south it is the further south our energy goes. I think we’ve found another way to lose in the south with this one
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Now there's a 996 just off the north Florida coast. Can't imagine there's too much precip tbh though with it being cut off, maybe I'm wrong.

Edit: 850s are icky though, yikes.
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There is precip concentrated around the low as you’re suspecting with lots in FL and a moderate amount along and just inland the SE coast. Not nearly cold enough for wintry.
 
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Kind of a catch 22 for most of us. No strong twppable high pressure so we’re relying on the PV to inject our cold into the equation but the further south it is the further south our energy goes. I think we’ve found another way to lose in the south with this one
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Three ways to lose here.

1: Full early phase and system amps.
2: System gets crushed by PV and/suppressed
3: S/W slows down and gets in between waves, second s/w dives south and pushes up ridges.
 
If the northern stream interacts just a bit, it will come north, and the 850s will respond too.

Right now, it’s being left alone by the northern stream and the 850s, and subsequently the surface temps, are bleeding out.
 
RollTide18 said:
What do we need to get the cold air?
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An Arctic high to the north feeding into it. That’s lacking here. On the 0Z, there was a 1032 Arctic high feeding cold air, which allowed it to be cold enough for big AL snow.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
The thing we need to supply our cold air with this system is also the thing causing it to develop in the Bahamas. It really is incredible
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However I'm now looking at the 2/12/10 reanalysis maps again and I'm not sure there's really much of a high pressure, my guess is, the cold airmass is fresher with it (what I alluded to with Upstate SC possibly being okay with the later phase with this). It'd help if a weak one appeared and honestly that track is actually good for deeper in the south if you can have a fresh cold airmass, a weak HP, and the system doesn't cut off.
 
I actually very, very happy with this depiction, minus the lack of an antecedent arctic air mass being in place. ALL we need here to get somebody some snow is for there to be a digging northern stream wave that can interact with the system before it pulls away. That is simply noise at this range.
 
GaWx said:
An Arctic high to the north feeding into it. That’s lacking here. On the 0Z, there was a 1032 Arctic high feeding cold air, which allowed it to be cold enough for big AL snow.
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Exhibit A: see followup 12Z Euro Gulf low, which has a cold high to work with
 
Rain Cold said:
I actually very, very happy with this depiction, minus the lack of an antecedent arctic air mass being in place. ALL we need here to get somebody some snow is for there to be a digging northern stream wave that can interact with the system before it pulls away. That is simply noise at this range.
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Yeah, no doubt still a really good look.
 
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Fire up the thread! Wouldn’t a solution where 850’s and colder surface temps are pulled south (even if it’s still rain for most) bode well down the road and setup for our next fantasy chase at day 8?
 
Oh lawd, the look on the Euro with that later system would actually for sure be good as a deeper south system since that one doesn't cut off. I've said the last of the month has legs too based off what I've seen of late after the 26th-28th on the models I can see but I'm not going to be excited about that one for a while because of how much the models have been bouncing around here.
 
I know a few of us have talked about it already in here, this system for this weekend is either going to be a grand slam or we are going to strike out as it goes to our south. I don’t think there’s going to be any middle ground. The eps will be interesting
 
Too much energy in the flow for models to get even the basics right after 5 days. So all we really know is there is going to a window of opportunity for winter weather somewhere in the south the last week of January.
 
deltadog03 said:
I know a few of us have talked about it already in here, this system for this weekend is either going to be a grand slam or we are going to strike out as it goes to our south. I don’t think there’s going to be any middle ground. The eps will be interesting
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I really don't think there's going to be an in between with this one. In more layman terms, either we're going to get:

1. An earlier phase and the western SE gets dumped on.
2. A later phase and some areas of the deeper south and eastern areas of SC/NC gets a good hit.
3. No phase at all and the system just cuts off, leading to mostly a swing and a miss on precip period.
 
deltadog03 said:
I know a few of us have talked about it already in here, this system for this weekend is either going to be a grand slam or we are going to strike out as it goes to our south. I don’t think there’s going to be any middle ground. The eps will be interesting
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This is what we can compare it to . No way it’s close to the 00z run
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The changes in the modeling today isn't we wanted to see. It's interesting that the GEFS members were showing anything from a whiff to some all out bombs that cut through the mountains. Anytime I see spread like this on the ensembles it tells me there are a lot of variables and to expect plenty of shifts in the coming days. It seems to me the best snow runs for the NC/SC area were when we had some good phasing, this run of the FV3 was just 12 hours ago. By 00z tonight we could again be looking at a much different solution.
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