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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

Snowfan said:
GFS looks better than 12z.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png
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It still closed off our energy but kicked it out of CA faster than 12z
 
I like that look on the 18z fv3, nice western ridge and look at that digging in the sw, this run might go boom or be close
 
It's incredibly suppressed, this run will be like the 12z FV3 and be a whiff...goes neutral to neg tilt over the gulf... I like to see suppression this far out, but it goes without saying we need that vort more north over the gulf states/gulf coast and not over the gulf itself. ha

Snow on the panhandle at 180hrs
 
Psalm 148:8 said:
Weather from times of old.... they had no computer models.. yes.. some of this stuff you hear is nutty... but I know and have observed this to be true.. tons of black birds on the ground... thunder then 10 days later.... extreme cold, snow, ice , or any of the mentioned... I have legitimacy on this... passed down by my family.. my great great grandfather was the sheriff of Cherokee county North Carolina... he married a Cherokee Indian... they only knew things of weather by observing nature.
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Saw several squirrels bury nuts outside today to add to your list ?
 
There's another shortwave diving down the ridge at 180hrs with a northern stream moving in concert...this is different than 12z and we may have round two coming
 
I wouldn’t even watch the rest of the GFS run. It’s atrocious with what it’s doing with our piece of energy out west early’ish in the run. Ever seen a train derail? The cars at the end usually take the brunt of the damage
 
Jon said:
There's another shortwave diving down the ridge at 180hrs with a northern stream moving in concert...this is different than 12z and we may have round two coming
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Sheers to hell and back


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HR 160 FV3. Probably going to be a miss overall. But the takeaway for me is that there is a strong storm signal next weekend; details to be determined. You can pretty much discount the GFS.

gfs_namer_180_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
 
Poimen said:
HR 160 FV3. Probably going to be a miss overall. But the takeaway for me is that there is a strong storm signal next weekend; details to be determined. You can pretty much discount the GFS.

gfs_namer_180_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
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It’s not amped enough


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Jon said:
It's incredibly suppressed, this run will be like the 12z FV3 and be a whiff...goes neutral to neg tilt over the gulf... I like to see suppression this far out, but it goes without saying we need that vort more north over the gulf states/gulf coast and not over the gulf itself. ha

Snow on the panhandle at 180hrs
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From the look above, this is starting to feel like a more amped version of 2/12/10. A repeat of that, much less anything stronger would satisfy many including me with this winter.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
When’s the last time the upstate whiffed on an event in the past 4 months? We’re going to put this atmospheric memory theory to the test next weekend
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I agree but i tell ya Chris justice just did a video. It was very depressing actually maybe a dusting if that. I hope he’s wrong


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We want to hold suppression as long as possible...the NW trend will commence eventually due to no blocking. What is deciding this track is solely the ridge out west. That's the only thing steering this shortwave. We will have to thread the needle but I like where the SE as a whole sits this far out.


Edit: this run still jackpots central SC and NC. Going to be a good snowfall map I think.
 
Jessy89 said:
I agree but i tell ya Chris justice just did a video. It was very depressing actually maybe a dusting if that. I hope he’s wrong


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He’s probably giving some value to the late bloomer/coastal camp as am I. Although, nothing is set in stone yet
 
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