• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

Jessy89 said:
If Gfs,Fv3, euro all show nothing today. What would that tell us?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Nothing..... they all were showing historic arctic outbreak the other day and now that's looking less likely. It's still early, be patient and learn to watch trends.... there are some valuable posters on here, read what they are saying closely and use this as a learning experience.
 
CMC is west of last run and bombs the NE with a 971mb low. Also the cold bias is laughable.
gem_T850_us_29.png
 
H5 is still all over the place in the GFS in this time frame. Honesly the NWS should just put the GFS out of its misery and just shut it down. At least if it was consistent (even consistently wrong) we could play off its biases and garner some sort of useful information from it but it's so all over the place and I don't see any reason to even look at it.
 
Chattownsnow said:
H5 is still all over the place in the GFS in this time frame. Honesly the NWS should just put the GFS out of its misery and just shut it down. At least if it was consistent (even consistently wrong) we could play off its biases and garner some sort of useful information from it but it's so all over the place and I don't see any reason to even look at it.
Click to expand...

It would've been gone on the 19th, but sadly it's not due to the shutdown. At least that was when the FV3 technically was going to be made operational.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
We should all be happy with suppressed at this range.

Model chaos continues. Until we see some sort of consistency you are better off not even looking at them.
Click to expand...
Most of us know this but there are some new folks that will realize this soon enough.....:cool:
 
Jessy89 said:
One more question is anyone concerned by lack of cold air?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Pretty sure this “lack of cold air” is just the fact that no precip is falling.

850s are cold. Surface just heats up under sun. Earlier runs had heavy precip falling over the area which kept the surface cold.

IF the upper levels start torching then we worry. But the surface isn’t a big deal right now


See look at surface vs 850
72033FC4-1C77-4B09-A657-784C8959DB9B.pngF1658E64-B5FC-4738-89AD-B85F3A4F5679.png

Cold is there. But the precip isn’t. I’m not worried at surface temps at all as long as 850s stay this cold
 
This reminds me of the lead up to the January 12th storm where the mid-Atlantic thought they were out of it and the Carolinas were getting another big storm. They ended up with a big one. A suppressed look at this point is not the worst thing in the world. It may not come back, but we are not out of it at this point. Just keep watching and learning from each of these potential events. We can also learn when a storm fails to materialize, although it’s not as fun as hitting the jackpot.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Pretty sure this “lack of cold air” is just the fact that no precip is falling.

850s are cold. Surface just heats up under sun. Earlier runs had heavy precip falling over the area which kept the surface cold.

IF the upper levels start torching then we worry. But the surface isn’t a big deal right now


See look at surface vs 850
View attachment 12317View attachment 12318

Cold is there. But the precip isn’t. I’m not worried at surface temps at all as long as 850s stay this cold
Click to expand...

Didn’t think about this. Thanks
 
I'm good with a suppressed look on the FV3 given that it staying steady would probably lead to gentle shifts NW in the end, just hope that it's not still suppressed in the range where it usually locks in!
 
If you want a storm in the south you almost ALWAYS want to see a suppressed look in the mid/long range.

Like 99% of the time you want to see it.

It could always just be suppressed into nothing BUT with a suppressed look we will be on the good side of the NW trend.

No need to panic. Just hang out for the next 24-48 hrs as models search out the right track.
 
RollTide18 said:
I forgot which model did this but days before the 2/12/10 storm a model also suppressed the low down to Cuba. A little food for thought.
Click to expand...

Yep, I said I had a feeling that with this one we're going to have a wild ride in banter, and it's far from over. Better suppression now than a good hit for sure. Pretty sure it was the GFS doing that.
 
yeah Wednesday is the day we should really start looking for the suppressed look to subside if it follows general history with these models.
 
in the 5-7 day timeframe, I want it to look like this. Accuracy in outcome matters zilch at this point. We are only looking for trending not solutions.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
If you want a storm in the south you almost ALWAYS want to see a suppressed look in the mid/long range.

Like 99% of the time you want to see it.

It could always just be suppressed into nothing BUT with a suppressed look we will be on the good side of the NW trend.

No need to panic. Just hang out for the next 24-48 hrs as models search out the right track.
Click to expand...
Agreed. It’s either going to snow or it’s not. I’ve seen storms modeled to be suppressed at this range actually end up being too amped and missed to the north.
 
malak05 said:
yeah Wednesday is the day we should really start looking for the suppressed look to subside if it follows general history with these models.
Click to expand...

I have lived in Eastern and Central NC most of my life.

Every. Single. Major storm goes like this:

1. A few models bullseye us in the 180-220 range.
2. That gets us interested then POOF the models lose it to suppression in the 150-180 range.
3. Models have a Nw trend in the 120-150 and lock in.

That’s literally how every major coastal storm I can think of works out for us.

While it’s nerve wracking to see models lose the storm this is actually following the historical modeling pattern for major storms in the southeast.
 
Wow:

1548090618099.png

It's in the Bahamas too like the GFS lol geez. I've played this game before and think it'll start coming back in a couple days. Wonder what this means for the Euro then.
 
Well how often does a storm really go to the Bahamas in winter? My guess is not very often


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Fountainguy97 said:
If you want a storm in the south you almost ALWAYS want to see a suppressed look in the mid/long range.

Like 99% of the time you want to see it.

It could always just be suppressed into nothing BUT with a suppressed look we will be on the good side of the NW trend.

No need to panic. Just hang out for the next 24-48 hrs as models search out the right track.
Click to expand...
Yes but we want it suppressed due to cold air and strong high pressure. It is suppressed for the wrong reasons which is a big red flag imo
 
Look st how all 12Z models, as you can see from the UKMET map above, are now strengthening the low around the lakes, now 997 or deeper. This is focusing all the energy there and not at the base of the trough. This may help us for the next wave, but this one is going to go by by. Expect Euro to follow suit.
 
Jessy89 said:
Well how often does a storm really go to the Bahamas in winter? My guess is not very often


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Actually? Not often, modeled? More often than you might think..... again there has been numerous post discussing the suppressed look at this lead time and why that does not necessarily mean all hope is lost. I can appreciate the passion, wanting to know what it means for your location and wanting to learn but please read all post. Every question you have asked has actually already been answered. Work with us here, we certainly are.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
How many times have we seen storms suppressed that far south before this far out and then they end up coming back NW? It has happened plenty. I think the Christmas 2010 storm did the same thing on the models, taking it all the way to Cuba before adjusting NW.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top