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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

DixieBlizzard said:
Born and raised in Birmingham so just my .02.....You are more likely to get CAD into East Central AL than you are in the NE part of the state. I am talking about areas like Scottsboro, Guntersville, down to Gadsden are less likely to see CAD than Anniston. It used to happen a lot in the 80's.
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When I say northeast Alabama I mean the northeastern chunk so most of east central Alabama as well lol ?. But I see what your saying. Depends how strong it is, on how far it will get really. I just want some snow lol
 
DopplerWx said:
soundings looks like sleet, not frz rain. just need to hope that warm nose isnt stronger than modeled.
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I was talking about the greater Charlotte area. FRAM ice accumulations had a bullseye of 1" ice accrual from Rock Hill to South Charlotte to Monroe. But yes it's possible we stay mostly sleet. It's what's saved us for the past two decades.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
I know some say CAD is always underestimated, but I have also seen times when it ended up being warmer than forecast when there's CAD.
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Sure it has…but also depending on what’s eroding it. The point is we don’t know and can’t accurately predict at this stage.


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Definitely further north but also dang sure looks like it's trying to get a slp going in the panhandle of Fl, that would be different

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png
 
Definitely looks better for a front-end thump of snow than the GFS. I would love to see some front-end snow, at least…looks to be setting up for a MAJOR ice storm for many on this forum, regardless.
 
Modeling the CAD is always the trick. Moisture is NOT going to be a problem with this storm. It's going to be a very bad ice storm for many. Hopefully, most of the ice will be sleet and not fzrn. Whomever gets the fzrn it's going to be lights out, literally. Also, the winds are going to be high, esp once the storm rides up the coast.
 
metwannabe said:
Central NC and down east, horrible track

1642388400-JyoI8AWJlTs.png
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Indeed, though I don’t quite see how it takes that track with such strong CAD. Seems like it would need to be another 50-100 miles east? But I’m a modernweenie .
 
At 96 hours, the GFS and EMCF have nearly the exact same placement of the 500Mb low. Where the difference and improvements come after that timestamp is because the EMCF continues the upper low ene across N. Ga. rather than Kentucky as the GFS does.
 
Potentially nasty ice storm down to I-20. Impressive CAD signature. QPF amounts look a little wonky tho...I would think there would be more precip. Didn't see a ton of convection along the panhandle. Wonder what it could be. I have to be missing something
 
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