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If GFS verified would be catastrophic for Charlotte metro!
soundings looks like sleet, not frz rain. just need to hope that warm nose isnt stronger than modeled.
I know the models are going to change, but for the I-85 corridor up through NC, I can't imagine it's going to be rain, at least not the non frozen kind.
This is actually a pretty solid setup with the CAD. Sfc high to the north tucks in behind the trough / low in SE Canada with -20C 850mb source region temps over Maine (bottom right). The strong southern wave going negative tilt actually adds additional confluent flow running into New England, holding the sfc high in there a little longer than would otherwise be the case.
To add to this another aspect is just how robust that initial FGEN band is… a solid enough thump that puts down a quick 2-4 inches of snow and drops the temps back into the low 20s with undoubtedly help to hold CAD in stronger and longer… it’s just a matter of are the 925s supportive of keeping things mainly sleet and just how much ZR is there. As for freezing rain being a self limiting process, that’s true but if your in the 22-25 degree range when the ZR starts it’s gonna take a while to make it above 32. I can still remember in the December 2002 storm in Concord where I was living at the time, the sleet and snow switched over to freezing rain when the temp was 25 degrees… it wasn’t until
I don’t think so.
Thank you
Northern Randolph County. Packfan 98, Ollie should have memory of this one if they where around back then
Laughable model. Pittsburgh goes from zilch to 18” in one run. Are you kidding me???
Yes, I suspect icing will overperform the modeling. I’m becoming less and less optimistic about our snow chances, but I think this could be a major pinger and/or ZR storm, even out our way.
I would be very surprised if those areas doesn’t stay predominantly Snow
I think it's a given it being in west Georgia. But also depends on the exact track of the low. CAD is just winds flowing backwards down the apps causing more shallow cold air. Which is hard to pick up nonetheless by models. But from what I've experienced typically it'll get Around to the Northeast side of Birmingham on the edge of the apps. But the more serious CAD is in the Northeast portion of Alabama.
I know some say CAD is always underestimated, but I have also seen times when it ended up being warmer than forecast when there's CAD.
I hear ya, but up this way the trees where bare bones then, save a few brown oak tree leaves that hang on till spring. The surface temps in low 20s coupled with 1.5 of qpf is a bad recipe. Espeacilly if we lose sleet sounding early in the game.
Born and raised in Birmingham so just my .02.....You are more likely to get CAD into East Central AL than you are in the NE part of the state. I am talking about areas like Scottsboro, Guntersville, down to Gadsden are less likely to see CAD than Anniston. It used to happen a lot in the 80's.
Thank you I know it times past in some winter situations locally we were colder and in some thunderstorm situations we also colder due to the E or NE winds. That’s why I was asking.
I don't think so...once the CAD locks in and temps in the 20s it will most likely stay put. So, snow to sleet to fzrn.
I wasn't wishcasting and agree we need to get closer. I was pointing to the map showing the stronger cad. Like this one. That's all we have.
