Geez, that’s a mostly IP storm around Charlotte-gso, even tho models show lots of ZR
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
No not at all
And then it barrows up into central Pa. JB will be sweating it out in State College.999mb over raleigh hahaha
I hate how those maps include ip. I know its to far out to really care about totals. Hopefully the foothills can hold that warm nose off for as long as possible.
Yeah we want to snow as much as quickly as possible Sunday morning and out perform model expectations. Only issue is locking in a colder sfc pool would mean more ice issues on the back
IF the GFS was to happen, this would be a ridiculous gradient. I have lived in the Carolinas all my life, but i have never seen anything like that. It's just hard to buy...
Nethertheless, the ole GFS says who cares what you think, i am trucking due North. Screw the haters.
SnowNiner
Member
Sadly, it's led the way on the amplification Miller B train and even the ensembles are ticking west now. I really wanted to see the gfs flatten a bit this run.
Fountainguy97
Member
Yes. The 06z GEFS does have several members with the first low up along the TN/KY border.
like it or not the GFS does have some support from its Ens.
Man this is just down right impressive .. I’ve seen cold insitu CAD hold on longer than the Gfs things this does.. something just don’t seem right with the quick erosion .. this is one of the most impressive CADS we’ve had in some time and it’s just going to get moved completely in 6 hours ?? I don’t think so
GFS has SC upstate (GSP) temperature of 32 at 4AM Sunday down to 24 at 11AM as the storm rolls thru
alfoman
Member
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Yeah, I can tell you, based off experience, that if you have a strong CAD, 58 is likely not going to be my high. Upper 40s maybe...but 58...nah.
But it isn't going to make a difference here it seems.
iGRXY
Member
850's warmer on the GEFS
We will finally get a clear picture of the NAM FGEN band with I believe the 00z run tonight .. the differences on models are already intriguing 
2m temps are slightly cooler on the gefs during the cad
Yeah CAD on the GEFS looks absolutely stout .. this will be a significant winter storm for most in the CAD region even if it switches to rain
Stout winter storm here 
ForsythSnow
Moderator
The GEFS mean seems to be a bit better than prior runs as there are higher means out and along AL and TN. While CAD regions are steady it is worse for NC and SC.
quite a spread.
SnowNiner
Member
You have the UK map you can share? If the Uk stays firm that would make many happy.
iGRXY
Member
Still a solid hit with 6" snow means along and north of 85 from NC through SC.
That's probably because it is showing a transfer of the lows
QPF is no joke here. GFS has over 2 inches in SC upstate to AVL to CLT. Major winter storm
iGRXY
Member
Looking at the individual member panels on weatherbell and it's really a pretty even split between colder and snowier memebers and icier members.
SnowNiner
Member
I think we've lost the GEFS. The primary lows are all amped and the transfers are all on shore. Just bad. Not what we want to see IMO. Only hope I think is that the GFS family is out to lunch, with Euro/Ukmet/Icon more correct.
NCSNOW
Member
Summary - Ice storm/sleet storm with the possibility of a SN FGEN band in the beginning ? CAD trended even colder in the NC Piedmont 
Stormlover
Member
gefs says the op is too far north
Cadi40
Member
Unfortunately any freezing rain that does fall will likely stay around for quite awhile given the low temperatures next week.
2" of qpf, just wild. praying for sleet and not frz rain.
You can watch it come in here. I could only see coarse panels earlier.
Models: UKMET - Pivotal Weather
View UKMET weather model forecast map image for 2 m AGL Temperature in Continental US on pivotalweather.com.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
I think highs in the 40s next week is plenty warm enough to melt ice.
NEGaweather
Member
CAD is a little stronger for NE GA Gainesville to Athens this run. Gonna be a mess IMO
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gefs members sunday morning 7am.
Flotown
Member
Starting to look pretty decent up here in nw bama...let's see how it goes