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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

metwannabe said:
Definitely better than the GFS

500hv.conus.png
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sn10_acc.us_ma.png


Compared to the GFS

500hv.us_ma.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
In all honesty, this setup ain’t really warming up at the SFC, just aloft, this looks like a pretty classic trend to a dominant Miller B setup, vs a flat/snow setup View attachment 103827
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Correct me if I am wrong, but doesn't our area tend to do better with Miller B setups and opposed to Miller A. Flat/Snow setups? Aka Feb 2014.
 
iGRXY said:
Ehhh. Canadian is used for CAD out of the globals as it gets a better feel for it due to its cold bias. This is a legit CAD that we probably haven't seen since Feb 2014 so it's pretty realistic in my opinion.
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Agreed… and it has support on it from its ensembles and GFS/GEFS
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
In all honesty, this setup ain’t really warming up at the SFC, just aloft, this looks like a pretty classic trend to a dominant Miller B setup, vs a flat/snow setup View attachment 103827
Click to expand...
Agree, you could already see the GFS came in with stronger HP and colder surface temps, transferring energy off the coast, problem I have with that run it then drives it straight north up I-95. I have my doubts about that track but we will see, sure seems we have a significant Miller B wintry threat evolving
 
The 12z GFS,Can, Ukmet are all almost identical on the 500 vort map at hr 96. By hour 108 The ukmet goes to the GOM shoreline and the 12zgfs stays up in northern MS. Cant figure out why each does what it does. We all prefer the dive down to the GOM and not a northern AL/MS path.

Eitheir way you slice the pie its gonna be all frozen in Triad NC with surface temps 20-22 whole event. That we can be very confident of.


500hv.conus.png
 
metwannabe said:
Agree, you could already see the GFS came in with stronger HP and colder surface temps, transferring energy off the coast, problem I have with that run it then drives it straight north up I-95. I have my doubts about that track but we will see, sure seems we have a significant Miller B wintry threat evolving
Click to expand...
Not often you get a Miller B with a +PNA, the H5 pattern for this possible Miller B is pretty different then the Miller B composite
 
NCSNOW said:
The 12z GFS,Can, Ukmet are all almost identical on the 500 vort map at hr 96. By hour 108 The ukmet goes to the GOM shoreline and the 12zgfs stays up in northern MS. Cant figure out why each does what it does. We all prefer the dive down to the GOM and not a northern AL/MS path.

Eitheir way you slice the pie its gonna be all frozen in Triad NC with surface temps 20-22 whole event. That we can be very confident of.


500hv.conus.png
Click to expand...
Unfortunately though if memory serves me correct, the UK has a overamping tendency and a southern track bias.

Maybe the Euro will get onboard.
 
In all honesty wait a couple of more days then use a blend of the GFS and ECMWF and you'll have a pretty good idea on the final solution. Instead of these run to run differences. :)
 
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