North
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
It is reassuring to see there are hardly any solutions that go up towards the Northeast, a lot more west to east movement in the ensemblesIt's my fault y'all, I renewed my Wxbell account, sorry but any who, this looks better
LovingGulfLows
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 1,300
- Reaction score
- 3,299
It's my fault y'all, I renewed my Wxbell account, sorry but any who, this looks better
Does this include ice or not?
Just about every member got wintry precip for SC midlands.
iGRXY
Member
114:
120:
126:
132:
A lot of mostly all snow members for the upstate north.
120:
126:
132:
A lot of mostly all snow members for the upstate north.
No, definitely not. At least i am 95% sure it doesn't. From the panels, i'd say this would be a huge ice storm for SC.
That does not include ice but as you have probably seen the member panels shared show where there is ice.
SimeonNC
Member
What surface temps do the GEFS show.
packfan98
Moderator
Canadian
Wow….
iGRXY
Member
6-8" Means along 85 at 5 days is insane.
I certainly would give weight to the ensembles at this point, deterministic runs can and will change, ens means should smooth out the noise until we get inside 72hrs. This is gonna be fun and I am likely chasing, again.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Remember everyone, this is the dance we have to play in the South. We want it to amp a bit to help bring down more cold from the high and increase QPF but we definitely don't want it to amp too much b/c it tends to drive the low north and brings in ice or rain. We're going to see lots of different changes over the next couple of days, try not to get too worked up run to run, BUT the trends matter. Not a good change on this current GFS but it could easily be over amped. Other models are trending more positively. Also, don't forget, we'll be in range of the short range models soon and those will start to tell the tale. Just about anything is still in play right now.
We arent going to get close to locked in until we get this thing on shore.
iGRXY
Member
CMC has way more CAD and the upper air is colder out ahead of the system.
Exactly. We aren't going to know much until Thursday.
Sandbar
Member
Just some perspective since I don't have much to add weather wise. This thing is going to change "multiple times". I guess when everything gets onshore you start seeing the real solution unfold?