Looks just like the GFS...tucks it into Delmarva....like old times Grit. It's never easy and usually rains. I blame RainCold for this.?
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
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Looks just like the GFS...tucks it into Delmarva....like old times Grit. It's never easy and usually rains. I blame RainCold for this.?
griteater
Member
It'll be a lot worse than that once the NAM gets a hold of it
This is strange…one heck of a warm nose
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Justin Buchinsky
Member
I've seen comparisons like this a few times on here recently.. it is important not to compare an ensemble mean as a deterministic solution! The ensemble mean is NOT a forecast output and shouldn't be treated as one. Rather, there is usually clusters that ensemble members group into. It is much more useful to see how different clusters stack up over time, as ensemble means can be extraordinarily misleading.GFS verse The Gefs at Hr 96. Makes a big difference
Oh man what a pretty big jump north on the GEFS
Oconeexman
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Man thats throwback stuff there. Imagine some folks today without clown maps...lol
Honestly we're gonna see the extremes of potential here for another day or so. And then hone in on a track and strength. The consistency this far out is a rarity. Appreciate the analysis as always brother...carry on
From what i remember, this is what the 2014 storm looked a few days out. Showed a massive ice storm for SC. Then inside 36 hours, trends began to show more cold air entrenched in the CAD shifting the freezing rain threat further South and giving areas that were supposed to see a huge ice storm a ton of sleet.
Geez 
NoSnowATL
Member
I see a classic CAD ice storm set up,
Those maps come with a free pair of vintage bell bottom pants and big white belt you know
MichaelJ
Member
The trend is to go a little North and amplify more so a lot of people who were in the all snow line will now be sleet and some snow. Further east and South toward Raleigh and Greenville SC, sleet and zr will be predominate if this north push holds up, the EURO will give us a better idea if it trends towards the GFS. Remember the GFS giveth and the GFS takith away
Broken024
Member
GEFS seems to have more snow south
Parker
Member
People familiar with western NC storm tracks, how comfortable would y’all be saying Maggie valley is a favorable spot to book a place and stay this weekend?
smast16
Member
So, we're losing the length of time the 50 /50 is hanging around, and allowing our high to make a beeline stage right. That's why the low is driving inland.
Huge increase on gefs incoming for NC/SC upstate
Literally everyone on the board could pick a GEFs member that works for their backyard
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Cary_Snow95
Member
Someone mentioned it yesterday but unfortunately 50/50 seemingly always move out faster than modeled
GEFS is gonna make a lot of folks happy that were upset with the Op run
Based on that how cold that ICON run was even with it’s known warm bias at this range, I give this map some validity… it’s also one of the reasons why I’m still not sold on this highly amped system the GFS is showing… I have a feeling the end result is gonna be somewhere in the middle between the GFS and EURO/UK… even if it’s closer to the GFS, I think with that strong of a CAD we could see a good bit more overrunning snowfall breakout earlier ahead of the system.. much like February 2014
I think ANYWHERE in the NC mountains will be good...