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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
This is the setup in a Snow back in 2017. Snow on the ground from West Texas until Al/MS state line, then nothing, then snow on the ground from Georgia to Carolinas. I quit watching boards for 2 years because of that one. Hope that’s not where we’re headed againvery odd
Yeah, speaks for itself
Snowflowxxl
Member
I’m sure somebody will try to spin this disaster in a positive direction with the EPS ?
It does look like a Miller B, but this solution at least makes sense given that the GFS made absolutely none. The EURO transfers to a new low very close to Savannah… not right into the CAD like the GFS did. One thing other to note is that this was not as an amped a solution as the 12z Euro as the warmer 850s looked to be the result of a weaker high to the north… something to watch for future runs. Verbatim this solution would give a heavy front end thump of snow from NE GA to Upstate SC, to central NC and points north before turning into IP/ZR and then back to snow on the backside…. Very similar to what the UK showed.
Total blend I created:
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Euro has a classic 85 special N and W.
NorthGaWinter4
Member
How is this run a disaster?
BufordWX
Member
The Euro was still a very big deal with snow for those in NE GA up into upstate SC. It will be important to see where things will go in coming runs. For all we know we could see a trend southward again or it could go further northward.
Snowflowxxl
Member
It continued the horrible trends and we are still 5 days out. The GFS solution is leading the way which is rain for 95% of GA
This run was absolutely not a disaster, but I’ve not expected this to be an all snow event outside the mountains. The biggest takeaway from it for me is that this wasn’t as amped up as the 12z Euro and not even close to what the GFS just showed. I’m not saying the less amped up is the start of a trend, but it’s definitely something to watch for.
Thinking a more impactful front thump .. but when you change over it’s ice from then on .. they are notorious for being very efficient (front end thumps)but this is going to be another game of us dodging the mix line
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Dewpoint Dan
Member
I'm starting to think the Atlanta airport won't get that elusive 6" snow after all.
If you look at were it transfers the energy, which is very key, it actually took a step away from the GFS
Getting that HP a bit stronger and that LP further south would do wonders for a lot of folks.
I’d expect quite a bit of NW members with this look 
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Snowflowxxl
Member
EPS not as nice as 12z
Whats the HP trending on the Euro ? Weaker ?
Dialing in 
There really hasn’t been a trend on the strength of the high as it’s been up and down from run to run.
I'm essentially basing it off of this Euro run.
There has not been really any consistency. It has varied from run to run. It never hurts to have firmly entrenched cold air feed in place here in the SE though! Esp. when dealing with a situation like this one.
For CLT metro folks this run of the EPS has the most members with snowfall of any run yet. This is definitely taking on that look of Miller B where the Triad, down to CLT metro west and down into the SC Upstate are the favored climo areas.
Euro control at 00z. Every piece of guidance trended more amplified/north. Hoping that slows down or even reverses some as we close in. GFS seems a bit extreme, but it has preformed well this winter.
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Those panels do not include ice correct?
No they don’t. Also it matches up quite well with what the Euro just showed in terms of track and that front end portion of overrunning.
Yeah it looks like a pretty solid storm for a lot of areas. Even down to ATL over to CAE will get wintry weather it seems. It's just not the all snow event some models lead us to believe it was.
SimeonNC
Member
I wanna see the EPS mean, did it go up or down?
Oconeexman
Member
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Beauty of a run for nw sc and ne ga and the eps mean keeps creeping up. Ill gladly ride with the King on this one. Hopefully gfs comes back some but still a long way to go.
BufordWX
Member
Certainly looks like FFC is going more in on this thing now. This is for my area (Buford).
Well that’s a little breath of fresh air 
Eh nvm, it looks colder but looks like a much more classic Miller B now given the more neutral tilt, still further south tho at H5
Looks like a stronger low but transfer much more east, this results In slightly more snow and a colder CAD
I really don’t see anyway this trends away from a Miller B at this point or at least an A/B Hybrid. The key now is just were that transfer occurs… with the strength of the CAD being shown, I still believe that will be much further south than what the 12z GFS showed, and more in line with the 12z EURO and UK
This run was better hopefully the GFS can follow shortly 