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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Just looking at the the individual members at 102 and a ton are still mostly snow for a good portion of 85.
 
At some point we need to take the possibility of a dangerous Ice storm in the Carolinas and NE Georgia seriously. Not ready to just yet though but this time tomorrow?


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NWMSGuy said:
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Closer to reality. I mentioned earlier this evening about how the warm nose can surge out of Statesville NC to Danville VA but struggle going west into Sparta/Wilkes counties. I think the snow maps were outrageously too high prior runs but now match what I said earlier exactly for the Charlotte metro region. Totals will pick up northern Mecklenburg back north west. Maybe 3-6” along i40 and 6-12” west of i77. Mixing could alter this by 2-4”.
 
I don’t think a transfer to the coastal plain makes much sense like the GFS depicts (transfer would be offshore or right on it, IMO), though it could still be on the mark with the warmer thermals still.
 
Miller B support but the progression is much more believable with some of the individual members. You still get a Miller B but it doesn’t penetrate through the CAD dome before transfer to … shocker … off the coast instead of 95 corridor … which means there was still a ton of members with mostly snow solutions.
 
The OP GFS doing GFS things again WRT to the first SFC low... some things never change with whatever version of it that's run.

Why in the hell does it take the first SFC low on a cyclonic trip directly to the mid/upper low and even ends up NW of its upper parent (*cough* BS *cough*) .. it shouldn't... but as GFS is as GFS does... already with that, it snowball effects and basically derails the rest of its prog...

cold air damming is extremely stubborn to scour, especially when it's reinforced with precip, latent heat aloft or not...

The parent high appears to be more or less in a really primed spot to stay entrenched for quite awhile ahead of the storm and the SFC low will still likely follow the wedge boundary... still be it, may Miller B but SFC lows don't bust through entrenched wedges quite so readily and the GFS is notorious for scouring wedges out too quickly..
 
After reviewing 0z I’m ready to book my travel to Mount Rogers, Virginia. More ensemble support there and displayed away from the warm nose that will impact all of North Carolina save 2-3 mountain counties. This setup would not favor south-west NC imo although it’s still solid warning criteria there.
 
DarkKnight said:
How in the heck. It actually did better for North Alabama. There must be one skewed member in there.
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Even if this takes a track up through TN, Alabama still does well especially if you have a ULL wraparound swinging south before shooting north. I think east of the apps would hurt if the gfs OP verified. That’s my 2 cents tho.
 
CMS coming around...
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