so we have 2 options at this point, right? If the TPV is far enough south, this will get pushed further south for sure. If not....It's an I-40 System for TN and NC and northward from there.
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
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SimeonNC
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The windchills with this are in the low teens, holy ---- lol. Also it has sleet for me and Fro, imagine blowing sleet with windchills in the low teens-higher single digits.
Honestly, this seems more like a March 2009 setup, January edition than 93. 93 was a triple phaser with the surface low moving NE from the lower Texas coast to near Augusta. If Memory serves.
iGRXY
Member
That second option just doesn't look probable at all at this point.
accu35
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Wasn’t the 12z Nam pushing the low towards lower Texas coast?
iGRXY
Member
ICON is definitely going to be more like the GFS.
Avalanche
Member
We are getting the NW trend. Lets hope this afternoon delivers an alternate plan.
It could, but man, it is really hard to bet on a SE trend around here, especially when models start to latch onto an amped system. We're just going to have to wait and see, unfortunately. But when we seethe SE trend, it's usually because we have a big block in place near Greenland/eastern Canada. That's been my experience anyway.
A couple of things are possible for those rooting for the southern track:
1) The NAO ridge is legit and will keep the PV from scooting north too soon.
2) The models that are showing the amped/NW solutions are keying in on our wave but missing the strength of the wave behind it, which would act as a kicker and keep our wave moving along. If they're mishandling either or each (which they likely are), then volatility will continue until both are onshore.
NoSnowATL
Member
Lord have mercy why would you say that 5 days out lol? Tempting the snow gods right there.
NoSnowATL
Member
Well we got the 1st TGWWC fantasy forecast.
Are you saying that based on the ICON? The 06Z ICON run was a Virginia/MA special. It's already North with the system.
Stormlover
Member
A high-impact system to bring snow to a good chunk of the eastern United States | Firsthand Weather
Firsthand Weather provides short and long-range weather forecasts for the United States.
firsthandweather.com
Showmeyourtds
Member
The funny thing is that most ATL mets are very good at not doing this kinda stuff. I would at least wait until you get into NAM range if you're going to take stuff like this to social media. I personally like FFC's Swedish Chef tweet better.
Nah. The only similarity to the 93 storm is JB hype. This could be a big one, but its evolution is quite different.
Oh mannnnnn
LovingGulfLows
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Oh for sure....deifnitely not expecting a massive triple phaser here, but the track of the low is starting to get closer to the 93 one....I wouldn't compare this to 2009 either. This might be a storm that is quite unique in recent recorded history.
Good lord, that has to be 20" IMBY.
accu35
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What a run from the Icon. Much further SW as well.