Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[BirdManDoomW]

ICON is carbon copy of CIPS and analogs. I would put a lot of weight into it IMO.

 

[jrips27]

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

I assume this data would be used in 00z guidance or maybe morning guidance?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

ICON still a significant ice storm for the CAD areas of NC .. Raleigh goes to 36 eventually but places west stay below freezing the whole way … deed will be done by the time it’s just plain rain .. verbatim ICON

 

[TheBatman]

I assume this data would be used in 00z guidance or maybe morning guidance?

0z or the 12z. I believe the 6z guidance runs off what the 0z has.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Is this data incorporated into the 00z suites?

 

[accu35]

Winds on the ULL on the 0z RGEM

 

[ncskywarn]

I assume this data would be used in 00z guidance or maybe morning guidance?

That mission was actually yesterday.

 

[ForsythSnow]

That mission was actually yesterday.

I'd re-check those timestamps, they're today.

 

[jrips27]

That mission was actually yesterday.

No it wasn’t

 

[Somosdel]

I wouldn’t put much stock in any ICON run. Our important runs are tonight. 0z suites of the GFS and the Doctor.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

 

[iGRXY]

GFS looks like it’s getting pulled on by the Baja low at 69.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

0z less amped than 18z by a little, but much less amped than 12z

 

[griteater]

New UKMet tracks if from New Orleans to off Savannah...a bit north from last run

 

[iGRXY]

Definitely less amped through 78. But is closed off

 

[jrips27]

GFS looks weaker with the vort but it’s digging a bit more at 81

 

[Cary_Snow95]

 

[ncskywarn]

I'd re-check those timestamps, they're today.

Sorry I looked at it wrong. Thanks

 

[iGRXY]

More confluence over the 50/50 region

 

[NCSNOW]

Ukmet track NO to Sav is the benchmark track for Triad.

 

[ATLwxfan]

A tick colder at the surface


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[tractor girl]

What's Atlanta/Athens GA best hope as far as track goes?

 

[Chandler]

Looks like another nw move on the gfs

 

[DopplerWx]

Similar to 18z so far

 

[Cary_Snow95]

GFS gonna be another amped inland runner

 

[iGRXY]

Yeah this isn’t going to end well from what I can see

 

[ATLwxfan]

Here comes the rain


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[DopplerWx]

This model sucks. Last 5 runs.

 

[brendan123]

Eventually the GFS will have to change its solution or the GEFS will, it's a matter of when... something has to give

 

[DopplerWx]

Pitiful

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Major ice at the surface too cold low 20s no way it recovers

 

[iGRXY]

Ice storm

 

[DopplerWx]

Low in freaking western tenn

 

[Chandler]

CLT now with even just an hour or two of some light snow before a very quick changeover

 

[TheBatman]

View attachment 104170This model sucks. Last 5 runs.

It was like it wants to do a U-turn. Straight from North Dakota to Arkansas back to Chicago with that low... What a freaking mess.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Catastrophic Ice Storm Warning run

 

[LukeBarrette]

GFS is a full on Miller-B now

 

[RBR71]

Bruh

 

[NCSNOW]

Lows in ky , western ky at that almost. Unreal 1500 mile shift in 30 hrs