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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Key is to get enough interaction with the Baja low that it relaxes the vort enough while coming down the plains. But we also don’t want this thing to completely shear out either with too much interaction. We want a nice closed off ULL but we want it closing off in the southeast. Where in the southeast is really location dependent but for the 85 crowd realistically you want it closing off around Mississippi and Alabama and track around the 20 corridor or just south of there. That way we still get precip generating but not a really amped solution that tries to pull warm air north in the mid levels.
 
iGRXY said:
Key is to get enough interaction with the Baja low that it relaxes the vort enough while coming down the plains. But we also don’t want this thing to completely shear out either with too much interaction. We want a nice closed off ULL but we want it closing off in the southeast. Where in the southeast is really location dependent but for the 85 crowd realistically you want it closing off around Mississippi and Alabama and track around the 20 corridor or just south of there. That way we still get precip generating but not a really amped solution that tries to pull warm air north in the mid levels.
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Yep, 5 hrs ago and about 25k pages back I shared how the 18z ICON showed just that. I know it's the ICON but it was just what you said, more interaction with the baja ull, sheared, weaker
 
Compare the 84 he GFS to the 84 hr NAM and the differences are pretty noticeable. The NAM has a further south and stronger get 50/50, stronger HP over the Midwest and a better CAD push as well. Couple that with a flatter wave and you’re trending in the right direction if the NAM is to be believed
 
Those temps aren't going to do it on the ICON
icon_T2m_us_33.png

Last run we had this
icon_T2m_us_35.png
 
ICON is a step in the right direction. It closes off but just too late and a little too far north. Luckily the trend has continued to be ULL slowly shifting southwest with track the closer we get to verification.
 
The icon temps don’t add up though. The amount of CAD temps will be colder then what Icon shows


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Icon did however trend to a weaker 50/50. Granted this model is really bad but it has continued the less consolidated wave trend.
 
Catching up, not great to have the Euro overamped and the gfs so amped it straight Miller B'd straight to crap. Ensembles look great, so that dichotomy is unnerving, especially as the gfs and euro ops continue to trend worse every run imo. Hoping the ensemble means, especially at this lead hold serve and the ops flatten a bit and get reasonable, start to match up. Tonight's runs need to stop the op bleeding stat.
 
I was looking at the 18z the whole time lololol. 0z definitely closed off and took an awful track for everybody but the mountains
 
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