Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[Metwannabe]

So, we're losing the length of time the 50 /50 is hanging around, and allowing our high to make a beeline stage right. That's why the low is driving inland.

Basically, the energy is closing off sooner, slowing it down and thus allowing that to occur plus the more amped up solution more times than not trend poleward. I'm still not sold we don't see more ice, the HP getting a little stronger with a decent CAD setup, still plenty to sort out imho

 

[accu35]

These are increasing

 

[Rainforrest]

People familiar with western NC storm tracks, how comfortable would y’all be saying Maggie valley is a favorable spot to book a place and stay this weekend?

If the gfs track holds I would stay in highlands cashiers or lake toxaway.

 

[NCSNOW]

People familiar with western NC storm tracks, how comfortable would y’all be saying Maggie valley is a favorable spot to book a place and stay this weekend?

Go to Highlands/Cashiers. If you want ski,then hit up Maggie Valley, catalooche

 

[malak05]

Yeah the GEFS looks to have much more signals closer to 6z run/Euro run

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

Hard not to get excited after that GEFS look

 

[BelmontWX79]

So, we're losing the length of time the 50 /50 is hanging around, and allowing our high to make a beeline stage right. That's why the low is driving inland.

I thinks it's more the short wave is coming in more and more amped leading to a stronger and slightly more north solutions.

 

[Metwannabe]

It's my fault y'all, I renewed my Wxbell account, sorry but any who, this looks better

 

[iGRXY]

Based on weatherbell the GEFS actually keeps most of the northern upstate snow for almost all of the members. It even keeps the central and southern upstate all snow on some members as well.

 

[Broken024]

Is the GEFS worse than GFS at picking up warm nose?

 

[iGRXY]

I thinks it's more the short wave is coming in more and more amped leading to a stronger and slightly more north solutions.

It has nothing to do with the 50/50L really. It's the fact that the SW is stronger and stronger coming down.

 

[Chandler]

 

[Jrips2710]

I present to you.... the panels

 

[NCSNOW]

Basically, the energy is closing off sooner, slowing it down and thus allowing that to occur plus the more amped up solution more times than not trend poleward. I'm still not sold we don't see more ice, the HP getting a little stronger with a decent CAD setup, still plenty to sort out imho

That 12z gfs was the earliest of a close off yet,that ive seen. Why it ssw back towards kansas. Just needed it to hold its hoarses another 6hrs.

 

[Broken024]

There are going to be some monster totals on a lot of GEFS ensembles

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

View attachment 103798
These are increasing

Good to see quite a few members with the surface low along the gulf coast.

 

[jackendrickwx]

GEFS says ice as well tho.

 

[NCSNOW]

Good to see quite a few members with the surface low along the gulf coast.

This x 1000. Its great to close off deepen. Just do it a little latter.

 

[Jon]

I've seen comparisons like this a few times on here recently.. it is important not to compare an ensemble mean as a deterministic solution! The ensemble mean is NOT a forecast output and shouldn't be treated as one. Rather, there is usually clusters that ensemble members group into. It is much more useful to see how different clusters stack up over time, as ensemble means can be extraordinarily misleading.

While true at face value, 99% of people don’t have access to clusters so I don’t see the problem with using the mean when comparing to the deterministic. Are you arguing there’s zero use case for that output without clustering?

 

[packfan98]