Agreed out to 54 still seeing some of it
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Snowflowxxl
Member
Brad Nitz is going to learn from this storm why Ken Cook and Glenn Burns used to call for a dusting even if the models were showing over 6 inches
My hope is we can get more of a Ukie like setup, from the past few runs. LP is in a good spot and we get a nice, entrenched cold air push locked in from the HP. You are right though, that energy out west has to get sheared more. Definitely don't want that 50/50 bolting on us too fast either.
alfoman
Member
12Z GFS through 60 hours is a tiny bit more strung out with our piece of energy and stronger with the one off the coast, similar trend to the NAM in that regard.
Edit: Still very amped at 72 hours
Edit: Still very amped at 72 hours
Jrips2710
Member
Pretty similar through 60 but a tick weaker
Warm biased Icon showing ice in the mid upper 20’s deep into SC... ?
iGRXY
Member
Definitely looks like its feeling the baja low more this run.iGRXY
Member
Still isn't closed off at 72
Don't see a ton of changes on the GFS, another amped up system inbound..... no denying that at this point. Gonna be a mess
ATLwxfan
Member
Yeah that’s a definite improvement for NGA. Would watch that trailing clipper too.
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SnowNiner
Member
Ukie and Icon now, can't forget that. Both I believe are now similar with the southern transfer. We're forming an alliance. Hopefully America joins the coalition today.
iGRXY
Member
Yep no real change in the surface at 87. Same placement as before.
alfoman
Member
Warmer 850s, surface low a tad NE and slower, just as amped as before, and the high retreating further into Canada. 12Z GFS continuing the trend, it will not back down
GFS out to 84 is a touch more suppressive with the heights along the east coast. Shouldn’t be worse this run at least
lp even further north than 06z lol
iGRXY
Member
LOL man this model is pitiful.
Downeastnc
Member
Not a great track through NC on the ICON. Still Yuck for lots of places.
Yep the trend has to go back to offshore for snow, storms that cut right up the coast or inland do not work out for NC.....well east if the Triad anyways.....that would be heavy rain rates into temps in the low 30's so the upside would be that it it would make it hard for the ice to build up quickly....the ICON actually curls the low WEST of my longitude over Virginia....
Really need this to start trending south, I was encouraged with the ICON shifted a lot south over the mid south.....but that did not really translate into the track up in NC......we need it to flatten out and for the low to move from the panhandle to off the NC capes.....
The latest run held the high better over NE even, but still ended up over eastern NC......hopefully this is the beginning of a trend though and we see this all move back to where it was a few days ago...
Lower heights in the NE
It'll still Miller B no doubt but likely more wedging and farther E with the secondary
It'll still Miller B no doubt but likely more wedging and farther E with the secondary
Finnaly a positive trend on the gfs 
alfoman
Member
Now the golden question the next hour or two will be: Do we see the UK, CMC, and Euro follow the NE trend further or can it be isolated to the GFS figuring out how to handle the energy?
rain line up past clt now.
iGRXY
Member
It's just funny to watch at this point. We now have a low transfer that is over Camden, SC.
The surface low is going up into Kentucky now on the GFS. Ugh.
Secondary taking shape in central GA warm front from that to CHS then up to near MYR then east into the ocean
Going to be hard to really pull that left with the CAD dome being reinforced. A lot of ip/zr with the mid level features way west
Going to be hard to really pull that left with the CAD dome being reinforced. A lot of ip/zr with the mid level features way west
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Are any other models doing that?
GFS similar evolution to 06z BUT the CAD is notably stronger this run for CAD areas .. I still like my idea that the CAD in place will be very hard to move and thus this could stay ice for longer for many areas .. right now from RAH to CLT it has at least 6 hours of freezing rain in the 20s
999mb over raleigh hahaha
iGRXY
Member
No lol. Not even the ensembles are doing that.
I don’t believe so.
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Well if the GFS is right on this I guess I'll just ignore all other models going forward lol
iGRXY
Member
Good news on the GEFS
Weatherheels
Member
Writing is on the wall for the Triad. If the GFS is correct we are in for a major ice storm after an initial bump of snow. Sleet or ZR, I’m not sure, but I do know with that lp track snow is highly unlikely for the Triad.
This isn't all snow of course but seeing it expand east some is indicative of the stronger CAD and more ice before the transition. For Central NC this is a slight shift but hopeful (if you like anything frozen) the beginning of a trend, still turns all rain but the initial wintry could still be significant. Something to watch
Man I’ll tell you what if the GFS is even slightly wrong on that LOW really pushing into the CAD like that and it ends up being further East .. those areas with ice are going to see a significant ice storm
iGRXY
Member
Weaker over the plains. You can see the tug on the energy more this run.
I’m sure as soon as we see the NAM we will toss the gfs all together. GFS always does this within 4 days. It can’t seem to handle energy transfers from the GOM to the Atlantic. Relax
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NCSNOW
Member
Been going up there since 0z last night on the GFS OP