Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[BullCityWx]

For those who dont remember February 2014(especially in the charlotte area):

I was in Fort Mill at the time. We started as heavy snow on the first morning around 23 or 24. We ended up getting about half a foot to eight inches before we changed to sleet and then to freezing rain. We changed back to snow on the way out the next morning.

It's still one of the best storms of my life and it had three different transitions.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

But I don't like the orientation of it

Miller B printer go brrrr, to me this is trending favorably for western NC/upstate including GSO/CLT/GSP/ASV, models are really trying to Miller B more now, I had a feeling we would see this eventually, a amped up trend

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Miller Bs are usually a slop fest for RDU. Initial thump of snow before a switch to sleet then zr then backside snow. Not as fun as all snow but usually sticks around longer

 

[NWMSGuy]

Ruh roh View attachment 103832

What does this mean in layman terms?

 

[mrdaddyman]

I like this track much better than the GFS track. This track actually makes sense unlike the wonky GFS track.

 

[jackendrickwx]

He Speaks

 

[weatherfide]

What does this mean in layman terms?

I think it means the GFS had data that the NAM did not. Not sure how much of a difference it makes, though.

 

[ncskywarn]

Does the ECMWF ever incorporate RAOB data in its modeling runs?

 

[Chazwin]

For those who dont remember February 2014(especially in the charlotte area):

I was in Fort Mill at the time. We started as heavy snow on the first morning around 23 or 24. We ended up getting about half a foot to eight inches before we changed to sleet and then to freezing rain. We changed back to snow on the way out the next morning.

It's still one of the best storms of my life and it had three different transitions.

I absolutely loved that storm… the sleet and ice we got during the middle of it really helped to keep the ground covered for a number of days afterwards despite the February sun angle and a fairly quick warm up after the storm. A storm similar to that right now at peak climo and below average temperatures after the storm could really stay on the ground for awhile.

 

[EastAtlwx]

Does the ECMWF ever incorporate RAOB data in its modeling runs?

check this out.. https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2021/20228-tropical-cyclone-activities-ecmwf.pdf

 

[packfan98]

Y'all are putting banter comments in the wrong thread and replying to the posts quicker than I can delete them. STOP!

 

[Chazwin]

One thing to keep in mind as this appears to be turning into a Miller B or Hybrid A/B set up is that often times you can get an area of overrunning snow that breaks out well ahead of the main system and the models often don’t pick up on it until inside 12 hours. The February 2014 storm was a great example of that here southern and eastern areas of CLT metro back into the eastern Upstate… the snow started about 6 hours ahead of forecast and got heavy very quickly

 

[SimeonNC]

He Speaks

Brad is a solid dude, and it's encouraging that he's getting more confident in at least some type of winter weather considering how conservative( and rightfully so) he is.

 

[olhausen]

Obviously still lots of changes to come before go time. That said if middle Tennessee gets anywhere near the snow that this run shows it will be some of the highest seasonal snow totals in many years with the snow that has already fallen.

 

[iGRXY]

More TPV = More colder air

 

[iGRXY]

Euro has the first wave that develops our 50/50 Low digging further SW in the short range. That is really telling for what we can expect our storm to potentially do as well.

Edit: It closes off right off the coast of NC which really helps for further development of the 50/50. Also the 850's are colder so far.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

View attachment 103839
More TPV = More colder air

As jon pointed out, we want to see blues on the se side of the vort. So far so good

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

I absolutely loved that storm… the sleet and ice we got during the middle of it really helped to keep the ground covered for a number of days afterwards despite the February sun angle and a fairly quick warm up after the storm. A storm similar to that right now at peak climo and below average temperatures after the storm could really stay on the ground for awhile.

And one of the biggest disappointments in my lifetime for most of the upstate. 8-14 inches predicted by local mets the morning of and 3 inches of slop for me.

 

[Chazwin]

Brad is a solid dude, and it's encouraging that he's getting more confident in at least some type of winter weather considering how conservative( and rightfully so) he is.

Good video as always from Brad. I wonder if he’ll be back from his vacation by the weekend. He’s such a weenie too, he’ll hate not being in town for a big storm

 

[Stormdoc]

Speaking of NW trend, the system on day 3 has moved waaay west. Not sure if good or bad, it could bring in more confluence and cold air for our storm