WXinCanton
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UKMET
Vs 0Z
Vs 0Z
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
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Avalanche
Member
What are the chances that the CAD will get scoured out with the HP sliding off into the Atlantic?
Clem282340
Member
Does this count freezing rain sleet as snow or is that all snowUKMET
The storm 12-18 hours before it helped with that also. Enhanced the cold air with that wedge. We were supposed to get devestating ice totals in Columbia from that, instead got 8 hours of straight sleet.
Losing the Ukie hurts
UK basically is a destructive ice storm/sleet storm from Charlotte through GSO, it warms to 32 by the time the mid level dry slot enters, looks like we’re getting agreement on what’s more likely
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Yeah, bad news
Last thing we need is hope....atleast all the globals are mostly in line. Looks like snow to ice for 85 corridor.
I know some might not want to hear this, JB was/is right...as we have been talking about before this week.....we need that confluence to stick in there and keep the block in enough or this would eventually cut inland and......we are starting to see the models cutting inland now.
WXinCanton
Member
Sucks because more times than not it seems the Euro follows suit.
NEGaweather
Member
In Georgia 85N and East from Gainesville North look to be in line for a pretty good Winter storm
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NoSnowATL
Member
Yea I would go even farther into Gwinnett. Cad tends to move down to that Snellville/ Norcross ish area
The tend to move into Atl popular too!
NoSnowATL
Member
It’s can if the CAD stays strong.
NEGaweather
Member
I do agree that that is entirely possible just think the best chance it’s locked in is say Lake Lanier north.
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Agree on the UKMet, but in fairness, I think we all saw where the UKMet was trending. It's like it has reverted back to its southern bias from yester-year. It was southern biased in the old days, then it got good in the mid-late 2010's, and now it's back to not being so good and southern biased
MichaelJ
Member
The North and West movement was always likely as is the case the majority of the time in the SE
Snowflowxxl
Member
For Georgia I think anybody from Gainesville and NE will get in in the action. Everyone else will be sitting at 34 and rain.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
It's gonna be a nasty weekend any way you slice it.
While I think the chances of snow are decreasing rapidly, the chances of ice/sleet have significant increased along the 85 corridor from GSP/CLT/RDU, but the UK has a bad bias of scouring out damming events to quick, I’d imagine many CAD areas barely get close to 32 thru the whole storm once the fgen generated precip startsLosing the Ukie hurts
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If FGEN/initial snow knocks you down to 22-23 like many models are showing, it’s a wrap. It’s a matter if it’s sleet or freezing rain.
Nerman
Member
Not this time. CAD will be stronger
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It's basically a fool's errand hoping a storm comes back from the west. Coming back from suppressed or OTS is almost always doable, but as I said from the get-go, without a strong, west-based -NAO to keep the 50/50 from scooting out, you need perfect timing.
This wave has gotten stronger and slowed down. With is no good NAO in place, the northern stream progresses and we're left with the upcoming debacle.
I still have difficulty believing that the low is going to track through Raleigh, but we're going to change to rain here almost certainly, the way it looks at this point, hopefully in time to avoid the major icing that areas to the west will see.
Unless the models are missing something really significant here, we know pretty much what we've got now.
One more thing, this is a good illustration into ensemble value. When you have one or two outlier runs of an operational, and the ensembles remain steadfast, you should give a nod to the ensembles. But when you see run after run of a certain trend, and the ensembles are slowly following, and other model trends are in the same direction, it is usually inaccurate to say "ignore the ops; let's go with the ensembles".
The ensembles provide a great deal of value, but we have to use them correctly and situationally. We can't use them for wishcasting or as evidence of what we hope will come true.
It has been clear since pretty much the beginning that the ensembles suites have been following the operational models. Givin the lack of a mechanism to hold the 50/50 in place, this was somewhat predictable. Trends across all guidance are just as, if not more, important to forecasting as the specific solutions themselves.
We will see some oscillations yet. But unless something big is being missed, we are starting to get a really good idea how this one will play out.
This wave has gotten stronger and slowed down. With is no good NAO in place, the northern stream progresses and we're left with the upcoming debacle.
I still have difficulty believing that the low is going to track through Raleigh, but we're going to change to rain here almost certainly, the way it looks at this point, hopefully in time to avoid the major icing that areas to the west will see.
Unless the models are missing something really significant here, we know pretty much what we've got now.
One more thing, this is a good illustration into ensemble value. When you have one or two outlier runs of an operational, and the ensembles remain steadfast, you should give a nod to the ensembles. But when you see run after run of a certain trend, and the ensembles are slowly following, and other model trends are in the same direction, it is usually inaccurate to say "ignore the ops; let's go with the ensembles".
The ensembles provide a great deal of value, but we have to use them correctly and situationally. We can't use them for wishcasting or as evidence of what we hope will come true.
It has been clear since pretty much the beginning that the ensembles suites have been following the operational models. Givin the lack of a mechanism to hold the 50/50 in place, this was somewhat predictable. Trends across all guidance are just as, if not more, important to forecasting as the specific solutions themselves.
We will see some oscillations yet. But unless something big is being missed, we are starting to get a really good idea how this one will play out.
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For comparisons sake, freezing rain started at 28 degrees in the 2002 event. You’re telling me that freezing rain could potentially start 3 or 4 degrees colder than that? 2+2 ain’t that hard if you’ve been through enough of these.
NCSNOW
Member
This is the biggest alarm for me with temps in low 20's. If we get overrun up top with waa. It'll rival/pass the Dec 2002 catastrophe. Never want to live an see/expierencing an ice event like that again, especilly with 15 days of BN temps in the heart of winter to follow.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
I mean even if the CAD is this strong it's still very borderline (31-32) for Atlanta. To feel comfortable with more wintry precip, you'd like to see it a little colder than that.
Depending on if there is a warm nose, yes. The colder sfc temps would only make the potential ice worse.
To be honest, you can shave about 2 to 3 degrees off since most models underestimate wedges.
You can wishcast ice away all you want but the dews tell the story. Low teens into SW VA with teens extending deep into NC. This is shouting trouble from the rooftop. This is NOT a borderline CAD event at this juncture.
NCSNOW
Member
Yep, this was a Saturday deal a few days ago and its gonna be 24 hrs latter. which means Our homemade 50/50 that takes shape tommorrow and heads NE will have another day to move out. Why we will see an inland track now. Gonna get hammered here with 1.0+ of freezing rain with low 20 surface temps. Lived that exact scenerio before and its devastating.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Big trends from a lot of snow on the 85 corridor yesterday, to now sloppy ice storm, could easily trend to just rain! 3-4 days is an eternity in tracking winter storms
Pretty serious threat, if any thing has had some threat of rivaling 2002, this is the one, we’re not getting rid of the CAD, maybe the snow, but not the CAD, this thing could cut and it’s still gonna be a nasty ice storm
Anybody have surface maps for 02’? Did we have negative dews into central VA? I seriously doubt it.
BHS1975
Member
You know it's bad when folks start posting this model.
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Jimmy, you speaking ice for the highlands, cashiers areas? I clearly have no idea the history of this area. I don’t mind some Ice, but definitely want primarily snow.
I see mixed bag potential at times but I don’t believe we’ll see a full fledged ice storm up that way. I’m watching though. Still a lot of time.
BHS1975
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