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Pattern October Thread

GaWx said:
As an avid watcher of models and follower of the never wrong Maxar ;), it is quite obvious that we’re headed for a much colder pattern within a week or so. A near to BN nov is very much on the table in much if the US.
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I saw an article a few weeks back talking about the temperatures of last few falls. September and October have been well above normal but November below normal. Sad thing is November below temps haven't correlated to winter temps; at least for the last couple of years.
 
Rain Cold said:
1/1 is not really statistically significant. But, how does he usually do? I do enjoy reading his stuff every winter.
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I dont know everyone Was ratting on him after I posted his tweet and I said we should keep track of how his calls go throughout the season and see how reliable the calls were by the end
 
Tarheel1 said:
November of 2000, was amazeballs in Greenville! 3 or 4 events or flurries, iirc! Spring from late December on tho!
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It was actually right after the first week of January 2001 that the pattern flipped that year… there was a snow event across the Deep South on New Year Eve and Day (the Independence Bowl was played in a snowstorm). The cold from November through New Year’s was very impressive indeed. The CLT area had that 2-4” snow a few days before Thanksgiving and despite the HUGE bust in early December, there were a couple of light dustings in the week before Christmas. When the pattern flipped though, it flipped!! Full on SER for basically the rest of the winter. That was a 2nd year Niña
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Still not exactly the best way for legitimate cold but it’s certainly not bad either, I’m honestly wanting to chase the first legit mountain snow this year so I’m needing some legitimate cold airmass to enter and drop some. Still waiting on a -EPO/-WPO driven stuff
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Have a feeling this is the best we’re going to get for November certainly enough for some mountain stuff I would assume
 
Chazwin said:
It was actually right after the first week of January 2001 that the pattern flipped that year… there was a snow event across the Deep South on New Year Eve and Day (the Independence Bowl was played in a snowstorm). The cold from November through New Year’s was very impressive indeed. The CLT area had that 2-4” snow a few days before Thanksgiving and despite the HUGE bust in early December, there were a couple of light dustings in the week before Christmas. When the pattern flipped though, it flipped!! Full on SER for basically the rest of the winter. That was a 2nd year Niña
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There was a pretty good snow in Mid December 2000. 3-4" in the northern Atl suburbs. And then in late December 2000 I remember watching the Independence Bowl and it was snowing like crazy in Shreveport !
 
By far the most impressive look for cold this fall (it’s still not great for legitimate cold), retrogression into a Aleutian low which will help drive a western US ridge, this is sort of a evolution you’d see with a +EAMT but the SFC pattern isn’t to reminiscent of one at all, this look in winter if I saw it would make me a little excited A9C71268-8DE5-4507-ABC8-1111473F16E5.png68B731FC-DFD3-4C57-A716-70E5C1F96D99.pngD2AE2E4E-FD3F-428C-BBA1-674517A7D690.png79CBFF16-44DE-4E78-9670-4CF58C698AEE.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
By far the most impressive look for cold this fall (it’s still not great for legitimate cold), retrogression into a Aleutian low which will help drive a western US ridge, this is sort of a evolution you’d see with a +EAMT but the SFC pattern isn’t to reminiscent of one at all, this look in winter if I saw it would make me a little excited View attachment 93360View attachment 93357View attachment 93358View attachment 93359
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Also finally looks like we got the first legitimate -WPO starting to get going here in a while which will help shuffle some of the cold from the other side/Alaska and bring it our way, a actual legitimate Arctic feed and not just polar pac garbage. just need a ridge to go up towards AK and we can dislodge some of that air towards us if we retrograde enough
 
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Keep an eye on Rick in the E Pacific as well as 98W in the West Pac.

Certainly would be a record breaking storm for the Gulf of Alaska if the Euro is correct. Downstream wave pattern emanating from a trough like this would send a motherload of arctic air down the spine of the Rockies to kickoff November.

ecmwf_mslpa_npac_10.png of
 
Bonjourno! ??????☃️8A889891-2D39-4552-88E2-18224178AD75.png39E5C2F2-FB77-471F-AE4D-BA1846475E8E.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Keep an eye on Rick in the E Pacific as well as 98W in the West Pac.

Certainly would be a record breaking storm for the Gulf of Alaska if the Euro is correct. Downstream wave pattern emanating from a trough like this would send a motherload of arctic air down the spine of the Rockies to kickoff November.

View attachment 93363 of
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BOMB CYCLONE per accuweather. 8 feet of accum snow on mtn passes.
 
When the Pacific jet finally decides to relax/retract & the strong planetary-scale trough retrogrades from the Gulf of Alaska, that'll be when it gets legitimately cold in the east-central CONUS as the amount of cross-polar flow will start to increase into N America & heights begin to rise over NW N America w/ the mean trough pulling back towards the Aleutians.

We're still on track to see this occur sometime in early Nov. Hard to get into too much detail this far out, but the overall planetary-scale wave behavior is pointing towards an anomalously cooler stretch of weather along/east of the Rockies after Halloween.
 
I do have a question. Is this pattern evolution tied in to mainly the -MT event shaping up and phase 1 of mjo or does it have to do with something else? I think I mentioned this earlier this week.
 
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Mr. Golf said:
I do have a question. Is this pattern evolution tied in to mainly the -MT event shaping up and phase 1 of mjo or does it have to do with something else? I think I mentioned this earlier this week.
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Less E Asia positive torque still can have a similar effect as negative mountain torque because relatively speaking both instances will favor a retreat of the N Pacific jet as the downstream baroclinicity decreases. In any case, planetary waves often retrograde westward under their own power irrespective of what the MJO, etc are doing due to planetary vorticity advection (difference in coriolis w/ latitude causes very large + strong troughs to retrograde west against the mean flow). This mechanism is definitely at play here and 98W is also contributing to what the height field looks like over N America in early Nov.
 
Webberweather53 said:
When the Pacific jet finally decides to relax/retract & the strong planetary-scale trough retrogrades from the Gulf of Alaska, that'll be when it gets legitimately cold in the east-central CONUS as the amount of cross-polar flow will start to increase into N America & heights begin to rise over NW N America w/ the mean trough pulling back towards the Aleutians.

We're still on track to see this occur sometime in early Nov. Hard to get into too much detail this far out, but the overall planetary-scale wave behavior is pointing towards an anomalously cooler stretch of weather along/east of the Rockies after Halloween.
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I will say one of our TV mets has been hyping November for awhile. We'll see ? he thinks we see a snow before Thanksgiving
 
Webberweather53 said:
Less E Asia positive torque still can have a similar effect as negative mountain torque because relatively speaking both instances will favor a retreat of the N Pacific jet as the downstream baroclinicity decreases. In any case, planetary waves often retrograde westward under their own power irrespective of what the MJO, etc are doing due to planetary vorticity advection (difference in coriolis w/ latitude causes very large + strong troughs to retrograde west against the mean flow). This mechanism is definitely at play here and 98W is also contributing to what the height field looks like over N America in early Nov.
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Thanks webber. Hopefully it's a pattern change that has some legs because outside of higher elevations in the south, it's rather difficult to see a good winter storm unless a very anomalous pattern ensues imo
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Less E Asia positive torque still can have a similar effect as negative mountain torque because relatively speaking both instances will favor a retreat of the N Pacific jet as the downstream baroclinicity decreases. In any case, planetary waves often retrograde westward under their own power irrespective of what the MJO, etc are doing due to planetary vorticity advection (difference in coriolis w/ latitude causes very large + strong troughs to retrograde west against the mean flow). This mechanism is definitely at play here and 98W is also contributing to what the height field looks like over N America in early Nov.
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I know JB likes to hype stuff, but he posted the euro ensembles showing the epo/wpo trending negative
 
Brent said:
I will say one of our TV mets has been hyping November for awhile. We'll see ? he thinks we see a snow before Thanksgiving
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It does seem like the further west you are the better odds you have of seeing ice/snow in November historically. I'm pretty sure Dallas has seen more winter events in November than Atlanta has.
 
Brent said:
I'm tempted to laugh too because he predicted the end of the 90s like a month before they actually ended

But it wouldn't be unheard of either especially with talk of the pattern change. Heck last year had an ice storm at the end of October in most of the state
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I'm ready for a midsouth ice storm ??
 
Chazwin said:
Is it just me or are there a lot of areas in the south that are way overdue for a major ice storm? I know the NC southern Piedmont and SC Upstate haven’t had a big one since December 2005
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We had 3/4- 1in inch ice in December 2018 and they didnt issue a ISW until the event was about done.
 
Chazwin said:
Is it just me or are there a lot of areas in the south that are way overdue for a major ice storm? I know the NC southern Piedmont and SC Upstate haven’t had a big one since December 2005
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Yeah I never saw one the last few winters in Alabama or any of the 6 years I was in Dallas(they had a big one in 2013 though)
 
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