Pattern October Thread

[Arcc]

Getting to that time of year where we start seeing long duration rain events for whenever we do see rain .. depression season lol

Wait, this is just starting?

 

[cd2play]

Getting to that time of year where we start seeing long duration rain events for whenever we do see rain .. depression season lol

Getting to time of year where we get more stratiform rains.

 

[Avalanche]

Meh View attachment 92490View attachment 92491View attachment 92492

Time for a mile wide broken band to come through and deliver hope for rain that wont come to fruition.

 

[Rain Cold]

All but the 0z gfs keeps the LR rather transient. Seeing a lot of 50/50 low-type activity, which should promote some occasional wedging. But the big stable west cost ridging pattern seems to take a break for a while.

The 0z gfs would give me confidence that we would be more below normal than above, once the pattern changes. The rest of the guidance seems variable, but at least the big heat and high dew points look to be gone....if it holds.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Tarheel1]

The front has all the makings of one of those pencil thin lines with some trailing showers as the 85-7 trough lags behind the sfc front/pft. Probably only a .05-.2 type event. If we get the deeper trough next week we get a more significant rain event

Y’all might get the moisture from Pamela at the end of the week??

 

[SD]

Y’all might get the moisture from Pamela at the end of the week??

Maybe western parts of the region. That stuff gets really strung out and diffuse but the time it gets here

 

[Arcc]

View attachment 92493View attachment 92494View attachment 92495

Cant get anymore amazing for Oct than that.

 

[jackendrickwx]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

View attachment 92502View attachment 92503View attachment 92504

Still solid fall weather with maybe a couple mid 70 days but even that is a relief from mid 80s at this time of year .. few points should be lower .. I think we can kiss the super uncomfortable days goodbye for now

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[SD]

Op gfs is looking too progressive with next weeks trough as usual

 

[Zander98al]

Do I see a shortwave ??? Time to get my tornado chasing gear ready ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Euro trying to find a way to find a warmer period, noticed this on the 12Z EPS yesterday but didn’t think much of it, per this look it would be transient tho

 

[SD]

Euro trying to find a way to find a warmer period, noticed this on the 12Z EPS yesterday but didn’t think much of it, per this look it would be transient tho View attachment 92508View attachment 92509View attachment 92510

I do like the big high on the euro spreading into the plains. Don't like the big ridge Amp from the rockies into Canada and the fractured trough... that's a recipe for a cutoff and warm/muggy if we didn't wedge or get a clean trough

 

[SD]

It'll be interesting to see if the means are still washing the D7 and particularly D10 pattern too much and we stay more wavy and amped through at least the next 14 days.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Feels like we’re seeing this look for a reason repeatedly pop up

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Feels like we’re seeing this look for a reason repeatedly pop up View attachment 92515View attachment 92516

A little back and forth classic fall time weather. About time we get back to normal around here. That cold shot behind this will probably be more intense then our first one