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Pattern October Thread

GaWx said:
And now the 18Z GEFS is, like the 12Z EPS and GEPS, showing a sharper trough incoming and thus cooler potential for the SE for on and after 10/20.
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Just to confirm: ensemble support of a reinforcing cold shot around day 10 or so, like the 18z op GFS shows?
 
NoSnowATL said:
Not really that cold.
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It isn't that it is "that cold". It is much more about the cooler and drier trends vs the near wall to wall warmth that models were showing as recently as late last week. Verbatim for most SE members, this run has quite cool lows in the 30s-40s, highs mainly in the near ideal 60s to 70s, and dews in the 20s to low 40s......in other words near ideal autumn weather that will be great for outdoor activities and a marked contrast to the recent dews in the 60s for most. Like night and day, but, of course, this is the natural progression for this time of year and is why I love this time of year. Now the leaves in lower elevations will finally get a push to start turning.
 
Looks like at least RDU and FAY will make a run at record highs Thursday through Saturday as records start to decline a bit more this time of year. An outside shot at 90 at both locations but 86-88 seems more likely. On the back side of the front Sunday morning some 30s look possible in parts of Tn/NAl/NMs/NGa Sunday (low to mid 40s more likely) then again on Monday with NC and NSC added in. If the models aren't being too aggressive with the following front mid next week that could bring a legitimate chance of frost to the region.
 
GaWx said:
It isn't that it is "that cold". It is much more about the cooler and drier trends vs the near wall to wall warmth that models were showing as recently as late last week. Verbatim for most SE members, this run has quite cool lows in the 30s-40s, highs mainly in the near ideal 60s to 70s, and dews in the 20s to low 40s......in other words near ideal autumn weather that will be great for outdoor activities and a marked contrast to the recent dews in the 60s for most. Like night and day, but, of course, this is the natural progression for this time of year and is why I love this time of year. Now the leaves in lower elevations will finally get a push to start turning.
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No step down with it either, so makes the change seem more drastic than it is. When you go from above-average to below-average without the in-between the change is big! I'm looking forward to the sunny 70s!
 
Still well into the extended (~D10) but GFS does have that secondary cold push.

More importantly, a Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning cold front continues to show.
 
smast16 said:
But any rain?

@SD Do you have any hope for a few drops?
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The front has all the makings of one of those pencil thin lines with some trailing showers as the 85-7 trough lags behind the sfc front/pft. Probably only a .05-.2 type event. If we get the deeper trough next week we get a more significant rain event
 
SD said:
The front has all the makings of one of those pencil thin lines with some trailing showers as the 85-7 trough lags behind the sfc front/pft. Probably only a .05-.2 type event. If we get the deeper trough next week we get a more significant rain event
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Getting to that time of year where we start seeing long duration rain events for whenever we do see rain .. depression season lol
 
I think it is interesting to note it looks like the euro was headed for more of a deeper trough heading towards us vs what the Gfs is showing as of right now. Euro would have more potential to bring more rain if it can back up far enough
 
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