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Pattern October Thread

Also that setup near the end of October near Halloween bears some watching. Very strong system fall tornado season is upon us

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Rain Cold said:
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I just can’t get over how insanely warm these runs are not just for us, but for NA as a whole, super impressive stuff and stuff that’s not seen often, if we indeed follow the models and get really warm again like they show, then some areas could break warm records for the month of October across the US
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I just can’t get over how insanely warm these runs are not just for us, but for NA as a whole, super impressive stuff and stuff that’s not seen often, if we indeed follow the models and get really warm again like they show, then some areas could break warm records for the month of October across the US
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I know it. I remember it from yesterday evening and from yesterday afternoon and from yesterday morning and from all weekend and last week and from several times this morning. It's crazy!
 
Rain Cold said:
I know it. I remember it from yesterday evening and from yesterday afternoon and from yesterday morning and from all weekend and last week and from several times this morning. It's crazy!
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Cmon you know if it was jan and we was seeing several snow and cold runs it would be just like that for that (which I would be a part of), I’m sick and off work so you already know them warm maps are gonna get posted up, it’s like how some view snow and record cold, except with me it’s warmth
 
Avalanche said:
We need a pattern soon that is condusive for rain. Too early for a noreaster, seemingly no tropical activity,
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I got a perfect pattern .
a56172179aaa45473598b1690956cda2.jpg


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Myfrotho704_ said:
Cmon you know if it was jan and we was seeing several snow and cold runs it would be just like that for that (which I would be a part of), I’m sick and off work so you already know them warm maps are gonna get posted up, it’s like how some view snow and record cold, except with me it’s warmth
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They'd be slipping and falling after drooling on the floor at their 2m temp maps.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Same model run of snow would be posted 40 times from TT/pivotal/wxbell/wxmodels, with half of them badly cropped
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It'd be 500 Mb, 700mb, 850Mb, wind Chill, individual soundings, tweets from #WXTw , Analogs... All 4 runs a day, of the top 5 models, then someone remembering the analog with their own personal story... Filling up a page in 30 minutes.

But heaven forbid you show the up coming warm pattern...
 
Cold patterns = more fun possible winter weather funny looking things fall from sky

warm patterns = sweat and rain we also see this for 8 of our 12 months

I think the excitement is for something different that we haven’t seen and been accustomed to for sooooo long

heck people get excited after a long winter when the first warm maps start showing up and show possible severe weather those are fun cause it’s a change of pace from the normal cold cold cold rain no snow pattern for several months .. I think that’s where it stems from
 
I could care less , it’s October I want it sunny and mild . I wouldn’t be hurt if it never rained another drop this month . Come November though I wouldn’t mind a few CAD days in the 50s and upper 40s with some steady rain . Still though, November is normally a mild month as well. The weather is amazing right now . Good crisp mornings clear crisp nights warm sunny days .
 
Lickwx said:
I could care less , it’s October I want it sunny and mild . I wouldn’t be hurt if it never rained another drop this month . Come November though I wouldn’t mind a few CAD days in the 50s and upper 40s with some steady rain . Still though, November is normally a mild month as well. The weather is amazing right now . Good crisp mornings clear crisp nights warm sunny days .
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Yeah certainly nothing out of the norm of our new norm
 
Lickwx said:
Ehh, our October norm is the same as it ever was . Tho that’s a debate for another thread …
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When the pv leaves the hemisphere or is parked in AK/Npac average or just below is going to be the best we can do. It's weird how that gets ignored and it's global warming and new norms
 
SD said:
When the pv leaves the hemisphere or is parked in AK/Npac average or just below is going to be the best we can do. It's weird how that gets ignored and it's global warming and new norms
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Yeah the PV at 10/30/50mb is on the other side with a dominating pacific trough, really isn’t global warming it’s just a combination of things that could allow for some really warm temps, I’ve been seeing GW being thrown around for the pattern but there’s something responsible for it (as there usually is)
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Looks like a average stale pattern to me, nothing going up in the pacific to deliver cold, just Canadian ridging, mostly cooler pacific origin stuff which isn’t great
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Yep I don't see what's interesting about it unless you live in the northern tier of the country which I think he is speaking for. Plus to be honest I wouldn't
trust a mean past D5 at the moment. There's too much volatility and smaller scale stuff that's going to drive our sensible weather that's going to get washed in the means right now. I mean look at the plumes and even the ops the gfs went from 50s to 80s over the weekend into early next week. The icon now has a closed low moving in early next week. The euro went from a big closed low sliding down the EC to a ridge.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Cold patterns = more fun possible winter weather funny looking things fall from sky

warm patterns = sweat and rain we also see this for 8 of our 12 months

I think the excitement is for something different that we haven’t seen and been accustomed to for sooooo long

heck people get excited after a long winter when the first warm maps start showing up and show possible severe weather those are fun cause it’s a change of pace from the normal cold cold cold rain no snow pattern for several months .. I think that’s where it stems from
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No, you see rain. Go west young man and you will find a Chatham County desert.
 
It's crazy how torchy this pattern really is. If we sneak enough energy down the eastern side of the ridge to at least see at least the wedge regions near normal that a big W to me it could be very very warm otherwise. This pattern is close to about as bad as it gets in the October through Feb season when you want cool to cold
 
SD said:
Yep I don't see what's interesting about it unless you live in the northern tier of the country which I think he is speaking for. Plus to be honest I wouldn't
trust a mean past D5 at the moment. There's too much volatility and smaller scale stuff that's going to drive our sensible weather that's going to get washed in the means right now. I mean look at the plumes and even the ops the gfs went from 50s to 80s over the weekend into early next week. The icon now has a closed low moving in early next week. The euro went from a big closed low sliding down the EC to a ridge.
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This is Lowkey one of the biggest flops since the feb fail2AA8C716-A928-44A3-BEB1-8C938FD62AED.gif17A4A3D6-B82C-4D2B-B52E-0989C6318418.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This is Lowkey one of the biggest flips since the feb failView attachment 92906View attachment 92907
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Yeah once the models ditched the idea of any ridging in the NAO region and tilted the ridge east with more pac influence it went from great to turd. It'll be interesting to see if we end up cooler than the gfs but there isn't a lot to propel any cold too far S in the wedge zones. It's really a hard pattern right now with the fight between the torch and whatever local cold there is
 
The averages now at DFW are now 77/56. So the next few days will actually be a few degrees above average.

Unfortunately, this past weekend has done a number on the October monthly average, back down to +2.7*F after yesterday.
 
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