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Pattern October Thread

Rain Cold said:
Will be good to see Siberia get some snowpack going. H5 is fine. Hopefully will flip when December gets here.
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Agreed. Also Alaska and the northwest Canada are starting to build snowpack as well. I’m not looking for anything from the Arctic this early… I just wanna see some lower dews so we can cool off at night
 
Enhanced outlook issued for North Texas and SE Oklahoma on Sunday by the SPC.

Sod's law...

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I think if November still advertises a warm pattern, then it may be time to give up the ghost. It's a second year niña. I will stay positive for a week of cold with enough moisture for a ice/sleet event for everyone, especially my area. ?
 
Mr. Golf said:
I think if November still advertises a warm pattern, then it may be time to give up the ghost. It's a second year niña. I will stay positive for a week of cold with enough moisture for a ice/sleet event for everyone, especially my area. ?
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I've been alive a decent number of years and I have been through a lot of first and 2nd year Ninas. I have never seen a blowtorch pattern set in and sustain itself nonstop from September through March. That simply isn't going to happen. But it is frustrating to go through this much of Autumn so far with dew points in the upper 60s and low 70s for most of it.
 
Rain Cold said:
I've been alive a decent number of years and I have been through a lot of first and 2nd year Ninas. I have never seen a blowtorch pattern set in and sustain itself nonstop from September through March. That simply isn't going to happen. But it is frustrating to go through this much of Autumn so far with dew points in the upper 60s and low 70s for most of it.
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You are correct...I always tell my friends/family, "mother nature likes to balance" so I fully expect these warm temps will be counterbalanced by much cooler temps sometime. It might be a month from now, but mother nature will balance us out.
 
This weather and now the forecast warmth maybe into November reminds me of 1985. November was warm that year and then things flipped completely for Dec and Jan. to a much colder but VERY DRY pattern. Not much precip at all that winter and little if any snow for most of us outside of the NC and Tenn mountains.
 
Another thing to remember is these models are garbage outside of at most 5 days. The GFS is still trying to forecast near 90 degrees into the middle of and late october and that isn't going to happen no matter how much wishcasting you see here. That model has been TOO warm in the medium and extended ranges especially over in the western carolinas. Odds are it'll be above average but the "Hottest" days will be in the upper 70's and maybe low 80's for those in the eastern carolinas and south of I20. And a lot of these above average maps are due to the night time lows being well above average right now. Wall to wall cold or warmth isn't going to happen. Models keep pushing for around 10/17-10/18 when we get back to average with much lower DPs.
 
iGRXY said:
Another thing to remember is these models are garbage outside of at most 5 days. The GFS is still trying to forecast near 90 degrees into the middle of and late october and that isn't going to happen no matter how much wishcasting you see here. That model has been TOO warm in the medium and extended ranges especially over in the western carolinas. Odds are it'll be above average but the "Hottest" days will be in the upper 70's and maybe low 80's for those in the eastern carolinas and south of I20. And a lot of these above average maps are due to the night time lows being well above average right now. Wall to wall cold or warmth isn't going to happen. Models keep pushing for around 10/17-10/18 when we get back to average with much lower DPs.
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I can only speak for my area but the above has not been true so far at all. Think we got up to 88 a few days ago.
 
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