I wish you had just said no lol that's ugly Siberia--->WC
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Pattern October Thread
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Ugly 
B
Brick Tamland
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Why does it matter if it's warm in October?
Because some prefer it warm in October and some prefer it not be warm in October. And then others don't give a crap. Different strokes for different folks. It is an Oct thread on a weather board. Why wouldn't the warmth in October be discussed? Or the warmth in any month? Or the lack of warmth in any month? It is weather.
In the meantime, I'm enjoying the current lack of warmth and humidity. Awesome for outdoors with dewpoints still in the 40s.
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Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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The average here is like 59/39 or close! This relentless heat, really sucks
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Bathtub slosh theory, gonna hit in January! Line January 88 style!
?cd2play
Member
Fixed
JHS
Member
If it is like Jan 1988 you will miss it up in Iowa. Will have to come back to SC to get in on it.
Ugly. Going to be warm.
Certainly there’s gotta be some severe weather implications with this GFS run with that cut off? Or maybe more of a flooding threat
Yeah, the Halloween storm from hell (almost all this falls in a 72 hour period):
Dewpoint Dan
Member
I think this is the 30 year anniversary of the infamous Halloween blizzard !
Guys we just have to wait 300+ hours for the pacific and west coast to look good ?????
B
Brick Tamland
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
Hopefully not. I'm fine with it being above average now as it's too late to be truly oppressive, but I was disappointed when I looked at the temperatures on the 12z GFS (was a bit more OK with what the Euro said).
Lazy to just look at temps...I know.
Correct me if I'm wrong but don't a good number of winters that produce something good for us have warm falls? Maybe this is good since the pattern has time to change and recent Ninas haven't followed the typical cookie cutter outlook either.
Temps and dews
Brent
Member
I don't remember that snow in Dallas ? fake snow
I need to research the frequency of that when I have time to be able to answer you.
The only thing that can save us is SSWE ???
I didn’t know there was going to be upper 30s over there tonight 
Read the thread, while I think tropical SSTs have more of a impact, there’s some sort of loop happening in the NPAC
I love where the overnight models headed ??
smast16
Member
NCSNOW
Member
First Digital snowfall of the season for NC. Off the Lakes Cutter,swings a small pocket of cold enough 850's over the high peaks to spit wet flakes. Day or two before the trick or treaters hit the front porches.
I remember all of the attention the warm blob got. Wasn't it there for a few years? I do remember one winter where there was a ridge there that was attributed to it. And then I remember hype about subsequent winters where it was going to cause a but western ridge/eastern trough, which didn't quite pan out.
Tis the season for everything to get nitpicked to death regarding winter.
Yep. I don't doubt that a big pool of anomalously cold or warm water up there exerts some influence on the pattern. But I guarantee you there are a lot of other forcing mechanisms that can and will override it. But who knows, maybe everything will align for a big -PNA and raging Pac jet (which begins way upstream of the cold pool) to become the dominant winter pattern. I guess we'll see.
Agreed. I bet the next thing will be the strat warming on the gfs
I don't follow the SSTs enough to know so maybe someone can chime in but was that cold pool there before we started dropping troughs down the west coast or no? It looks like over the last 7 days that cool pool has warmed slightly
smast16
Member
But that wasn't there at 12Z yesterday, which was my point. Halloween wasn't in jeopardy because the Gfs threw out one wet solution at 300+ hrs.
Now if we can get a similar solution to 0z for more than a single run, and inside 144 hrs, then I'll begin to get excited.
Till then, business as usual
Yeah I understand what you are saying I just thought it was funny the gfs/euro switched places with almost the same result. I think we might be looking at at least out first widespread decent rain event in a while leading up to Halloween but I question these big bowling balls
I’m still always gonna be way more convinced/agree that SST temps in the tropics are far more a bigger factor then the mid latitudes, but I still wonder if mid latitude SSTs do have little effect and help lock something in time to time
That’s interesting wonder if we can get some sort of boundary setup with this look with actual convection 
smast16
Member
I bring this up as a novice, so feel free to correct me, but could the actual impact of that warm blob be that it's nearby the cold blob leading to increased low pressure systems generating along the temperature difference.
And as a result the Lows keep wanting to set the trough in Eastern Pac?