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Pattern October Thread

GaWx said:
Fro,
When you say phase 1 in Oct “isn’t great”, you mean from a cool pattern lover’s perspective rather than your own perspective, correct? I’d think you’d like those reds.
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It would be warm but I want some active weather, that look is one that leans to dry boring and warm, that’s what I mean by saying it isn’t great
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I have to respectfully disagree and say that's not just how it goes in Oct. Maybe it's true that's how it's been going for a decade or more now. But it's been ridiculously warm for what the past few October's except last year? Averages are just that, averages buy usually half the days are above average and half below to get the average. When 25 out of 30 days every month are above average it kind of gets old.
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Congrats you’ve joined the club of people who have figured out global warming is a thing and is effecting us and there’s nothing we single handedly can do about it except accept it as a new norm .. I’ve also only lived here for about a decade so yeah this is Normal October weather for me here
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Euro seems to cool per the EPS as usualView attachment 92839View attachment 92840
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At the end of the day the EPS are smoothed out averages and they are only slightly above normal there .. they are good for seeing the big time players off the west coast and up in Canada but there’s certainly room off the East coast for something to brew that could help our temps stay average to below average if we got some sort of big low pressure anomaly out there .. all models pick up on something like that which again probably give us that smoothed out look of maybe a bit above normal but I’m sure there’s members that go opposite and some that go full Torch .. we just gotta wait and see what comes of it
 
Gfs continues a trend to a meaty noteworthy CAD event early next week and by the time it wears away here comes a thick upper level low the models have been shuffling around with … a lot more unknowns right now other than a wild pattern is bound to ensue here shortly F45F71FF-6C89-4324-8AE8-4197B7881398.png5294344A-86D9-45FA-BF9D-AB0094992F3E.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
wonder what mr maxar is gonna say about this View attachment 92856View attachment 92857
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Warm bias. ;)

I hope not but I fear this neverending theme of correcting warmer due to cold bias/stubborn SER will persist. It has been happening like clockwork for a number of years now. Why should it end now? I think their theory is that it is partially related to the ridiculously warm and strong forcing from the Maritime Continent that the models don’t handle well. And of course La Niña loves the SER. And the +AMO probably plays into it, too. Today’s runs’ warming adjustments were ridiculous but the warm lovers must love them.

Meanwhile, I had 2 spectacular walks the prior two days! I love autumn when it acts like autumn!
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Torch View attachment 92864View attachment 92865
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Insane. Just insane how warm this October could be View attachment 92867View attachment 92868
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Myfrotho704_ said:
GEFS - even warmer with a bigger Ridge over the SEView attachment 92870View attachment 92871View attachment 92872
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michael-jackson-i-love-this-song.gif
 
I like seeing consistency in blocking on all models going forward .. this will help to set up stages where we get troughs stuck underneath which can cause lots of mischief in the weather underneath them. Wild rides in the models over the next few days is almost certain FD88E157-0092-449A-B6A6-EB483B40516A.png8865DD09-5059-450B-A189-F4BE2D22BFF8.png1BD6979F-B648-4949-9F6E-03BC3B674F74.pngBA52E07F-FF0A-409B-8524-3C451400237C.png
 
41.1 but the airport (which is only about 5 miles from me) had 37 and I saw some patches of frost on a few rooftops this morning. It's funny the WeatherFlow is in the exact location of previous sensors but on these cooler nights has run a few degrees warmer, it always seems to run a little high with the DP too. Any who, great fall morning!
 
metwannabe said:
41.1 but the airport (which is only about 5 miles from me) had 37 and I saw some patches of frost on a few rooftops this morning. It's funny the WeatherFlow is in the exact location of previous sensors but on these cooler nights has run a few degrees warmer, it always seems to run a little high with the DP too. Any who, great fall morning!
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Edit: Just double checked, actually 40.6, oh so close to that first sub 40 temp
 
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