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Pattern Fabulous February

Here you go @GaWx

Weeklies deliver, somewhat.
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Tell me if I’m wrong but I think all of u trying to wish away the south east ridge may wanna pump the breaks.. with this system the Gfs is showing it’s the gradient between the SER and the strong short wave with cold air that’s cresting such high snow amounts and lots of moisture.. if someone or everyone scores big here .. it would be because of the south east ridge
 
ForsythSnow said:
My bets would be on the Euro in terms of the high. We know the GFS always seems to overpower its high strengths. Maybe let's come back to this post in 5 days and see which was closer.
Click to expand...
So while we are all looking at the GFS, here's a look back at something I posted 5 days ago to study how the models were interacting with the idea about an icy system around this time.
So here are the GFS, Euro, and FV3 runs from 5 days ago depicting tomorrow night.
ecmwf_mslpa_us_7.png
fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png
So the test was to see which run set the stage properly. Here's the GFS for that time frame and the other models aren't that far off, so it is a good example I'd say as they are maybe 1 or 2 MBs weaker or stronger.
gfs_mslpa_us_6.png
Note the low is up in Michigan. Checking the Euro runs at 0Z of the same run on that Wednesday prior to the one further up showed very similar of a solution.
ecmwf_mslpa_us_8.png
My idea that the Euro would come out on top seemed to hold here, and it overall seemed to know what it was doing regarding pressures.

So what implications does that have now? I say we should use this as a good example of how the GFS and FV3 have biases in overdoing high pressures and also how the FV3 was consistently wrong and ended up going the way of the other models. With that said, I'd pay attention to what the Euro is doing with the pressures regarding this upcoming system. Of course H5 is a different ball game and not surface related, and the system the GFS is spitting out seems driven by that. If such wild solutions keep showing up, or show up on the Euro, I'd say it would be worth watching how each model handles the situation.
 

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ForsythSnow said:
So while we are all looking at the GFS, here's a look back at something I posted 5 days ago to study how the models were interacting with the idea about an icy system around this time.
So here are the GFS, Euro, and FV3 runs from 5 days ago depicting tomorrow night.
View attachment 15503
View attachment 15505View attachment 15504
So the test was to see which run set the stage properly. Here's the GFS for that time frame and the other models aren't that far off, so it is a good example I'd say as they are maybe 1 or 2 MBs weaker or stronger.
View attachment 15508
Note the low is up in Michigan. Checking the Euro runs at 0Z of the same run on that Wednesday prior to the one further up showed very similar of a solution.
View attachment 15509
My idea that the Euro would come out on top seemed to hold here, and it overall seemed to know what it was doing regarding pressures.

So what implications does that have now? I say we should use this as a good example of how the GFS and FV3 have biases in overdoing high pressures and also how the FV3 was consistently wrong and ended up going the way of the other models. With that said, I'd pay attention to what the Euro is doing with the pressures regarding this upcoming system. Of course H5 is a different ball game and not surface related, and the system the GFS is spitting out seems driven by that. If such wild solutions keep showing up, or show up on the Euro, I'd say it would be worth watching how each model handles the situation.
Click to expand...

FWIW, this is the sort of stuff we need lots more of ... Great job, FS!
And thanks!
Phil
 
I’d say if there is a real threat it’s for Arkansas tenn and NC with a flat ridge . The FV3 looks like many gefs and eps members which favors I40


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The 18z FV3 has a lead wave that brings snow to i40 then is gonna have an amped up system 24 hours later
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18z fv3 is 12+ across a good chunk of NC. Also has a big freezing Rain accum map. Cant post on phone. Long ways out to be riding american models but atleast its something to watch besides plants blooming outside the window in early Feb.
 
Needa watch southern central nc/areas near FAY tommorow and sc, wedge front is aiding helecity, around 750-1000 jkg of cape
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FV3 . Three different waves on the 18z run , this is not one big system . All waves go from frozen over to rain
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Storm5 said:
FV3 . Three different waves on the 18z run , this is not one big system . All waves go from frozen over to rain
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Click to expand...
Looks like I can add 5.4 more inches to my fantasy repertoire. That puts me at 1/234 of my forecasted snowfall for the season. Really not bad considering. Been a great winter imo
 
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