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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

FV3 looks like it's back to the OH Valley storm? Does have initial snow though in areas of NC/SC, probably goes from that to ice, then eventually rain.

Could be wrong of course though.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
MA forum is worried about this thing going south now
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I know the MA wants snow to. But come on they see snow a lot more then we do and more of it. Anyway the gefs is the most positive thing we have right now. Definitely looks like a miller Bish storm. Now just have to figure out how cold it will actually be


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Gfs- trended better and colder CaD areas do better

Gefs- better that snow line further south

Fv3- warmer further north nothing outside the mountains


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According to the other board because of the government shutdown the GFS isn't getting all its model data inputted. It doesn't mean it's wrong just having agreement from the Euro would be helpful.

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benjammin said:
According to the other board because of the government shutdown the GFS isn't getting all its model data inputted. It doesn't mean it's wrong just having agreement from the Euro would be helpful.

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Shutting the GFS down may be money well saved.
 
DarkKnight said:
Hate to say it. But this storm isn’t going to produce for north Alabama. Our system will be a couple weeks down the road.
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If you’re along I-20 and/or I-85 in AL or GA, we’ll need some serious help with this one. Not saying it ain’t possible, but do your damndest not to fall hard for the snow accumulation maps.

Edit- @DarkKnight, that wasn’t geared towards you- you’ve been around long enough - was mostly gearing that towards others who might be vulnerable to get sucked in
 
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benjammin said:
According to the other board because of the government shutdown the GFS isn't getting all its model data inputted. It doesn't mean it's wrong just having agreement from the Euro would be helpful.

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I thought accurate data input for weather modeling was essential for life saving purposes. This doesn’t make much sense...


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Jon said:
I thought accurate data input for weather modeling was essential for life saving purposes. This doesn’t make much sense...


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Perhaps off topic a bit, but not much yet this winter makes much sense ... now back to trial preparation ... and it'll snow up a blizzard down here in a bit while yours truly is locked in a room with no windows, inside a sterile courthouse ...
 
Showmeyourtds said:
If you’re along I-20 and/or I-85 in AL or GA, we’ll need some serious help with this one. Not saying it ain’t possible, but do your damndest not to fall hard for the snow accumulation maps.

Edit- @DarkKnight, that wasn’t geared towards you- you’ve been around long enough - was mostly gearing that towards others who might be vulnerable to get sucked in
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Nope, no offense taken. Just looked at it as your adding to the post. ???
 
Bsud said:
This looks like a repeat of the DEC storm, especially for the CAD regions of NC and Upstate.

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Stormdoc said:
Expect this to strengthen next few runs of course, just like the December storm.
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That is what I have been thinking, too. The way it is evolving on the model runs reminds me of the December storm.
 
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Showmeyourtds said:
If you’re along I-20 and/or I-85 in AL or GA, we’ll need some serious help with this one. Not saying it ain’t possible, but do your damndest not to fall hard for the snow accumulation maps.

Edit- @DarkKnight, that wasn’t geared towards you- you’ve been around long enough - was mostly gearing that towards others who might be vulnerable to get sucked in
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“Need some help” scenarios don’t work out for us. Maybe it’s my imagination but models usually sniff out an I-20 snow event well in advance. They may trend away from it but it’s there initially. This was never our storm.


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If this one doesnt pan out it's not all lost though..keep that in mind. I'm speaking for upstate SC and Ne Ga. Euro weeklies look awesome last week of Jan into Feb for some serious cold and -NAO. Better chance on the way if we dont go into suppression city.
 
Keep in mind this..... I know some are comparing this to dec and I see some similar things but also some not so much.

The good news is that TD’s are forecasted to be much lower before anything falls. We are not hoping and praying to see sub freezing dew points rushing in at last minute. That’s a good thing.

The high looks/forecasted to be stronger (yet to be determined) than the dec storm as well. Again good thing.

The only thing is, will it get into a “prime” position for the cad areas? Dec storm finally made it there but late.

All in all, this one has potential but for prob many areas that saw the dec storm. Outside those areas watch and see approach but we still might be waiting. (Hint pattern is forecasted to be much better soon)
 
ATLwxfan said:
“Need some help” scenarios don’t work out for us. Maybe it’s my imagination but models usually sniff out an I-20 snow event well in advance. They may trend away from it but it’s there initially. This was never our storm.


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I was speaking more delicately. I agree that I-20/85 specials thru GA/AL are normally modeled well in advance.


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SoutheastRidge said:
Please folks stop talking about TD's in the storm thread. The football talk goes in banter !
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All your posts belong there! I wonder if ATL goes the rest of the winter without going below 32?????????????
 
Arcc said:
Starting to become more interested in that second piece of energy.
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That 2nd piece of energy will be something to watch. The FV3 also has that 2nd piece of energy. There could be another system on the tail end of the first system.
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WxWatch said:
That 2nd piece of energy will be something to watch. The FV3 also has that 2nd piece of energy. There could be another system on the tail end of the first system.
396d07d9e9dd3444643979cf100ecb01.jpg
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But would there be cold air for that one


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