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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

Their is a lot of difference between the models of where they place the parent high. All have a high strong enough to get it done (1040 +), but FV3 has it way up in Canada and not settled into New England prior to the low sliding in. Euro and old GFS have the high further south and more established. That and the northern stream wave as has been pointed out are 2 things to watch.
 
I still think the initial onset will start off as snow pretty decent for central/MS as model has been consistent on. Plenty of time for this to change. Thing I like is the gefs has the low further south, probably reason for some members to have snow further south.
 
Last 8 GEFS runs has steadily deepened low over New England. This is getting close to having big implications on the northern stream later on as it is close to phasing up on tonight's run, which could result in a longer-lasting 50/50 low and more confluence further south which should result in the surface high being further south for the period we are watching if this trend continues. Definitely something to watch.

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1300m said:
Last 8 GEFS runs has steadily deepened low over New England. This is getting close to having big implications on the northern stream later on as it is close to phasing up on tonight's run, which could result in a longer-lasting 50/50 low and more confluence further south which should result in the surface high being further south for the period we are watching if this trend continues. Definitely something to watch.

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Would that mean more snow outside the mountains?


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Jessy89 said:
Would that mean more snow outside the mountains?


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Would potentially result in a stronger CAD and push of dry air, but this is just one piece of the puzzle. Northern stream interaction with southern wave and strength and track of southern wave equally important.
 
1300m said:
Last 8 GEFS runs has steadily deepened low over New England. This is getting close to having big implications on the northern stream later on as it is close to phasing up on tonight's run, which could result in a longer-lasting 50/50 low and more confluence further south which should result in the surface high being further south for the period we are watching if this trend continues. Definitely something to watch.

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I agree this big low should help in a few different ways.
 
The icon is north and gives most people rain. Not sure the mountains would even see much from the icon.


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This needs to be a miller A but it’s looking like it won’t be. Let’s see


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0z GFS, the northern stream is pressing down slightly further due to the trof digging deeper that is off of the coast of CA.
 
With a low that's deep as advertised, you would think the moisture ahead would be richer.
 
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