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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

Brick Tamland said:
So if it is wrong, do you think it will be more snow or just rain?
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I think we're looking at a nuisance/advisory level event here and a quick changeover to rain for numerous reasons. 1) The CAD is not being properly handled by the CMC/ICON or most who are looking at it on here. 2) The FV3 and Euro are basically in lockstep (and so is the CMC at H5 it just hasn't properly adjusted at the surface yet), all of which suggest a warmer outcome. I think the 12z GFS is a likely outcome, perhaps with just a brief onset of frozen as far east as CLT to Raleigh.
 
Here's a summary of the LP track and p-types from 12z runs so far.
GFS - LP track through central MS/AL then off the coast with good snows and some ice along and NW of I-85.
ICON - Similar LP track but icy for CAD regions of NC.
CMC - Similar LP track but quickly transfers off the NC coast, major ice storm for CAD regions of NC.
FV3 - TBD
UK - Don't have precip/temp maps but LP track is nearly identical to GFS/ICON.
NAM - Broad, diffuse low from LA to TN. Very dry with qpf and likely outside of it's useful range.

Overall I'd say we have good agreement on the LP track going through central MS/AL and then transferring off the NC coast. The only outlier is the 6z FV3 which is a bit further north; the 12z Euro remains TBD.
 
Then areas north of CLT will likely see longer periods of icing, seen it many times where we have gotten sleet/zr/snow around 29-32 and clt south sees a cold rain with temps near the mid 30s
 
1300m said:
I think we're looking at a nuisance/advisory level event here and a quick changeover to rain for numerous reasons. 1) The CAD is not being properly handled by the CMC/ICON or most who are looking at it on here. 2) The FV3 and Euro are basically in lockstep (and so is the CMC at H5 it just hasn't properly adjusted at the surface yet), all of which suggest a warmer outcome. I think the 12z GFS is a likely outcome, perhaps with just a brief onset of frozen as far east as CLT to Raleigh.
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To piggy back on that, I would say I’m less concerned after seeing a warmer euro and gfs last few runs for sure.
 
The 12z GFS snow line is much closer to RDU than 6z which had it at the border. Not done watching for RDU imo.
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Yeah I'm watching that, there might be a period right when the storm is offshore where CAA wraps behind due to the storm deepening, would produce a burst of snow, then change back to light rain
 
Jon said:
The 12z GFS snow line is much closer to RDU than 6z which had it at the border. Not done watching for RDU imo.
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Anyone who is 1-2 counties away from any of the frozen lines should still be watching. We haven't even reached the NAM range yet.

There's HP strength and placement, confluence impacting how far north or south the low goes, stream interaction with waves that haven't been sampled yet, etc... Lot of time left for changes good and bad. I know that the line about the energy "not being sampled yet" sometimes seems to be used by meteorologists to hedge their bets and not make a definitive forecast. I think it has merit with this storm. Any time there is potential phasing, it is extremely difficult to pin down. The energy won't be properly sampled until tomorrow around 12z, so I expect there to be changes on the modeling through 0z Friday's runs at least. We have seen models converge with this lead time and then differ again in the 2-3 day time frame when there is better data.

Just keep watching. I will...
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Honestly that would bring ice to Northern Midlands of SC it’s further south with snowfall line on the border of SC and NC so that would mean Ice further south right??
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Most likely yes, but we would need to see 2m temps to tell if the ice translates further south.

Not sure if anyone has access to 2m U.K. temps during this storm but it would be helpful to see who is seeing zr.
 
packfan98 said:
Anyone who is 1-2 counties away from any of the frozen lines should still be watching. We haven't even reached the NAM range yet.

There's HP strength and placement, confluence impacting how far north or south the low goes, stream interaction with waves that haven't been sampled yet, etc... Lot of time left for changes good and bad. I know that the line about the energy "not being sampled yet" sometimes seems to be used by meteorologists to hedge their bets and not make a definitive forecast. I think it has merit with this storm. Any time there is potential phasing, it is extremely difficult to pin down. The energy won't be properly sampled until tomorrow around 12z, so I expect there to be changes on the modeling through 0z Friday's runs at least. We have seen models converge with this lead time and then differ again in the 2-3 day time frame when there is better data.

Just keep watching. I will...
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Speaking of sampling, here’s the euro obs coverage map. Hardly anything off the coast. It should become evident like you said by tomorrow, even though a lot of data is satellite driven...nothing better than actual obs.
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Jon said:
Speaking of sampling, here’s the euro obs coverage map. Hardly anything off the coast. It should become evident like you said by tomorrow, even though a lot of data is satellite driven...nothing better than actual obs.
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Storm will be sampled 12z and 00z tmrw. This is one of those systems where you can sometimes see large shifts in models at the time of sampling. Until then chaos will likely ensue then a quick “snap” together tomorrow as models figure it out with obs.
 
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