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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

Also, I’m no expert, but that precip barrier to our north can’t help our situation of trying to get cold air to pull south. Maybe someone can explain why this would or wouldn’t hurt us in this situation?E3F9FBDE-84AF-4DB5-9DB2-BF56A0F89F79.jpeg
 
1300m said:
Here's the 00z operational GFS:
gfs_z500_mslp_us_17.png


00Z ECMWF:
ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_5.png


00Z FV3:
fv3p_z500_mslp_us_17.png


I don't think it takes a meteorologist to see which one of those three are the most different. Don't worry, the Euro likely isn't done trending yet. Even if the FV3 corrects south some, it won't change the fact it's had the correct idea for two days before the Euro caught on.
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The euro may trend more, but it took a step back and/or just wobbled at 6z, so for now it’s staying put...I mean it might continue and amp up to Kentucky like the FV3 but I’m not so sure.

In my opinion, the euro was always in the too suppressed camp (we knew this because there was literally no moisture when all other models were screaming it, including euro ensembles) while the FV3 was in the too amped camp. A middle of the road solution seemed likely and that’s what we are seeing here. I know we won’t get some amazing crushing snow for RDU, but I’m worried about ice more than anything atm. Still several days away and models should correct more, the energy isn’t even over land yet.


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1300m said:
I'd like to see winds out of the north over New England during the 12 hours leading up to the event. There really isn't any CAA leading up to the storm.

View attachment 10397
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I would agree with that as the CAA does get cut pretty quickly from NE in the cad areas. I do think the cad should be enough for mainly WNC and maybe your area as well. If precip can make it in fast enough, northern upstate and into NGA could see some freezing at the onset.

I still think this is really only a WNC system, with a shot for y’all as well.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Also, I’m no expert, but that precip barrier to our north can’t help our situation of trying to get cold air to pull south. Maybe someone can explain why this would or wouldn’t hurt us in this situation?View attachment 10398
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A few things here. The NAM was upgraded in the last year or two and one of the known biases it has is the extended range where it is too dry at times. This appears to be the case as no global supports a precip shield that meager. I expect it will adjust that as we get closer to the 48-60 hour mark where it does better. It also has been trending a bit south with the LP track and is very weak with it. Overall I wouldn't utilize the NAM outside 60 hours because it's not going to do well with a storm like this and complex 5h interactions with the energy. Once the energy is onshore it should do a bit better and be useful then.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
To get frozen precip to fall on fringe areas I would like to see a much stronger wedge on the 84hr NAM. I want it bigly overdone. Not seeing it. That sucker is going to scour out in a flash
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I agree it will fairly quickly as what 1300 said, the wedge source cuts out quickly. I do think this one starts better tho vs dec storm.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Probably mostly because of where our low is spinning?
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No, primarily because the parent high is so far north. The NAM (and most guidance) also develops a secondary center of high pressure over New York in response to increasing confluence that then slides offshore, which is why you see southerly winds as far south as VA, and it also effectively shuts off the feed of dry air from southern Canada associated with the parent high. So effectively, that big 1038+mb high in Canada is just there for looks as it isn't doing anything for the storm.

namconus_mslpaNorm_us_fh72-84.gif
 
Through HR69 on the GFS, it looks a little flatter with a weaker surface depiction than 6z. Minor changes thus far.
 
IMO one of the keys to watch is how the energy consolidates and comes together. I haven't seen much change in our ridge or the confluence but the one piece that is still constantly changing in globals and meso models is how all this energy consolidates. Look at the mess over the Central US. IMO that is going to be very tough for models to resolve how all these pieces of energy interact with each other and is why we are seeing various solutions like the amped up FV3 vs suppressed UK idea.
1547048999669.png
 
The Canadian is another big winter storm for CAD areas...snow to ice.
 
I hope the gfs is right, but it lost the sleet/zr last storm and just more of a rain/snow line, and I ended up with 0.5 of ice and alot of sleet, it does that for some reason
 
GFS with a potentially significant change in the northern stream to watch. Notice the piece of energy over Hudson Bay.
1547049944710.png
Now notice on the newest run it is pressing down on the height field forcing our energy south and delivering a nice snow to portions of Western NC. In three runs this piece of energy has shifted south a good bit and worth watching going forward as the northern stream is always VERY poorly modeled outside 72 hours.
1547049994039.png
 
If I remember correctly, the Canadian suite performed really well during the Super Bowl day ice storm/event that we had here last winter. Temps were borderline/marginal...and the GGEM/RGEM outperformed the American models. For days they screamed 'ice storm' while much of the other guidance suggested primarily rain. All of this may not mean a hill of beans, of course, but something to keep in mind.
 
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