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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

Man I was spoiled last year can't get a Miller A track or temps right in the SE for much of Alabama/GA it seems. I suppose still time but seen winters like this where can't get anything but clippers and semi-miller Bs
 
mrdaddyman said:
Bumped back North a bit from yesterday's 12Z which is just fine with me. Has me on the edge as usual, but if it's going to be freezing rain, I don't want anything to do with it. I like my power too much.

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It is hard for me to discount this just because of the Wake County gradient. A dusting to 4 inches, and that's how it usually ends up here. And I like the CMC idea of snow to ice to snow. Those are the classic winter storms we used to get all the time. A little bit of everything.
 
Euro has once again caved to the FV3 in the medium range (D3 to D7), which is supposed to be the Euro's strong suit.

00Z 1/8 FV3:
fv3p_z500_mslp_us_21.png


00Z 1/8 ECMWF:
ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_6.png


00Z 1/9 FV3:
fv3p_z500_mslp_us_17.png


00Z 1/9 ECMWF:
ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_5.png


EPS following the trend as well.
ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_us_fh96_trend.gif
 
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At this point I'd be happy to see any flakes at all this weekend. I tend to be a pessimist, but I think cold rain for the whole storm is becoming reality
 
I’d say it’s more like the ECMWF caved to the old GFS. The FV3 is still entirely too far north. The 6z euro also seemed to dip a tad south again with the LP although not as far south as it was. The LP at this time frame on the FV3 is over Kentucky....
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Fv3 is gonna do well with this storm I believe. We have a amped up north track unfortunately. This will be a good one for nc


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It won't be a good one for nc, a amped, north track means alot of ice north of 85
 
Jon said:
I’d say it’s more like the ECMWF caved to the old GFS. The FV3 is still entirely too far north. The 6z euro also seemed to dip a tad south again with the LP although not as far south as it was. The LP at this time frame on the FV3 is over Kentucky....
38a77b3665198d7293c8f26c3bd868e3.gif



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Here's the 00z operational GFS:
gfs_z500_mslp_us_17.png


00Z ECMWF:
ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_5.png


00Z FV3:
fv3p_z500_mslp_us_17.png


I don't think it takes a meteorologist to see which one of those three are the most different. Don't worry, the Euro likely isn't done trending yet. Even if the FV3 corrects south some, it won't change the fact it's had the correct idea for two days before the Euro caught on.
 
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1300m said:
I don't think it takes a meteorologist to see which one of those three are the most different. Don't worry, the Euro likely isn't done trending yet. Even if the FV3 corrects south some, it won't change the fact it's had the correct idea for two days before the Euro caught on.
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Fv3 also has NAM support. Even now at the 12z nam run.
7CEE4B2F-421C-41FA-A3A9-1482280EC275.png

It’s pretty clear the fv3 May have in fact nailed this one. This would be the 2nd time it led the way. And this time it was all alone.

Would be an epic start for the fv3 verification
 
To me it's pointless to debate on which model is correct when we are still 3-4 days out from verification of the storm... until then it's all speculation on which model is handling things the best. Having said that, if the FV3 does indeed verify with the LP track up in the TN region it would be an impressive feat and IMO the new model to follow inside 144 hours for any SE winter threats. There is still plenty of time for things to adjust back south, the new 12z NAM is south and very weak FWIW.
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For my money, the ICON is the one to watch. The 12Z remains rock steady with another potentially significant ice storm for the CAD regions of NC.
 
Poimen said:
For my money, the ICON is the one to watch. The 12Z remains rock steady with another potentially significant ice storm for the CAD regions of NC.
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I agree, honestly the ICON and CMC seem the most reasonable with their p-type showing the snow in VA and a significant ice storm for CAD regions. This makes a lot of sense as well given the 5H low moving to our north and a nice 1040HP building in with low dewpoints in advance of the storm.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
“Global models struggle with CAD. We will have a better idea when the 84hr NAM show a wedge down

To get frozen precip to fall on fringe areas I would like to see a much stronger wedge on the 84hr NAM. I want it bigly overdone. Not seeing it. That sucker is going to scour out in a flash
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I'd like to see winds out of the north over New England during the 12 hours leading up to the event. There really isn't any CAA leading up to the storm.

namconus_Td2m_us_fh72-84.gif
 
Yep, December storm had winds coming out of the NE, precip struggled to fall due to dry air/dry dp's being pumped in from the wind coming from the NE, this storm looks to not have that
 
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