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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

Nam handles the mid-level thermals better than the globals do. That's been proven many times over. As for the boundary layer and cold air damming, that's still up for debate. Let the storm play out and we will see how it compares.
With those numbers it’s virtually impossible for me to reach the freezing mark. Speaking for mby only. 3k NAM now looks like no one in SC ever hits the freezing mark. Looks a lot like the HRRR
 
38.0/25 - temp very slowly falling this hour - winds from ENE, brisk at times - yes, live about 2 miles north of I-85 near DT Greenville
@Tarheel1 i just ran the numbers for TR. they will wet bulb at 32.72. This is essentially just a rainstorm st this point for SC
 
18z RGEM is still impressive.

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I’m having a hard tone trying to figure out how the RGEM is coming up with these ground temps. Looks like it has temps crashing in Upstate sc when the heaviest precip arrives tomorrow morning. Looks like rate driven ZR which doesn’t make the least bit of sense to me
 
I’m having a hard tone trying to figure out how the RGEM is coming up with these ground temps. Looks like it has temps crashing in Upstate sc when the heaviest precip arrives tomorrow morning. Looks like rate driven ZR which doesn’t make the least bit of sense to me

Wouldn’t heavy rain raise temps?


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I’m having a hard tone trying to figure out how the RGEM is coming up with these ground temps. Looks like it has temps crashing in Upstate sc when the heaviest precip arrives tomorrow morning. Looks like rate driven ZR which doesn’t make the least bit of sense to me

Good question, it’s probably a little biased cold. Though there is a strong hp to our north.

It’s sleeting at my house right now. Looks brief though based on radar.
 
I disagree but we will see
Well I hope I'm wrong and I know CAD events are known to be sneaky, but I just have a hunch that we won't see anything, especially since the upstate will even mainly be seeing rain. I always look upstream (wedges) to see what our weather could be like, and borderline for them usually doesn't bode well for us way down here.
 
A couple of observations regarding the HRRR and RAP. Both models have finally caught on to the ice storm for the WRN Piedmont tonight. Both models also want to switch the NW Piedmont back to snow/sleet Sunday morning. I doubt that will be the case...but I'd take it any day over additional ice accrual.

That said, I suspect this will be significant icing event for this area.
 
Good question, it’s probably a little biased cold. Though there is a strong hp to our north.

It’s sleeting at my house right now. Looks brief though based on radar.
Rgem flips winds in the western piedmont to north during the event and dew points never inch above freezing like they do here. Something interesting to watch for those areas.

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GFS has been more icy a few runs in a row now. Wonder how it handles low level temps in damming pattern.

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Can anyone post the RGEM ice total map?


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I think the activity is just too spotty to bring the temps down. Hard to even wet bulb down unless you have hard enough precip.

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It's publicly available on pivotalweather.com. You should go there and play around with the site. It's very user friendly.

Thank you for this info. I’ve been using tropical tidbits I’ll give that one a try


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Thank you for this info. I’ve been using tropical tidbits I’ll give that one a try


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Overall, I like it better than Tidbits. They also have the ice maps, snow depth maps, Kuchera snow maps, etc...
 
Radar has some mix on westside of town, they're not really colder over there so maybe something coming soon
 
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