snowlover91
Member
Here is CMC surface temps during the heaviest QPF that fountainguy97 posted. Upper 20s to 30F temps with zr falling would accrue very efficiently.
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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th
- Thread starter whatalife
- Start date
Last 4 runs of CMC at H5. Pretty obvious this is trending northward and the surface will eventually catch up. It'll take longer because it's the CMC.
Fountainguy97
Member
here is a graph made by NWS Wilmington office. Shows the relationship of ice to temp. Will be helpful if this becomes a monster ice storm. Wind also impacts ice but this storm will not have much wind thankfully.
snowlover91
Member
Here's a GIF from the GFS showing the piece of energy dropping down from Hudson Bay and forcing heights south over the past 3 runs. Look at how much this has changed. This is a big key and something that could actually force our system further south if trends continue.
06z FV3 and 12z CMC not that far off at H5. No chance CMC is handling the surface better.
snowlover91
Member
Only problem with this is the CMC runs on Tidbits are 00z and 12z so this seems a bit jumpier. The GFS over the past 4 runs has been fairly consistent with no significant shifts north or south.
This is very concerning to me. I know that it is the GEM and a lot of folks like to rag on it and it's late to the party most of the time, but once it figures out what a winter storm is going to do it is usually spot on with the p-types. This model has been spot on with every winter storm for my area that I can remember including the previous storm in December. As a matter of fact, it and the RGEM were the ONLY models that got that one right for MBY. Both forecasted a minimal amount of sleet with a heavy dose of cold rain and that's exactly what I got, while the FV3 was giving me 6+ inches of snow.
Fountainguy97
Member
This is very concerning to me. I know that it is the GEM and a lot of folks like to rag on it and it's late to the party most of the time, but once it figures out what a winter storm is going to do it is usually spot on with the p-types. This model has been spot on with every winter storm for my area that I can remember including the previous storm in December. As a matter of fact, it and the RGEM were the ONLY models that got that one right for MBY. Both forecasted a minimal amount of sleet with a heavy dose of cold rain and that's exactly what I got, while the FV3 was giving me 6+ inches of snow.
Yeah at this point it is an outlier. But that solution I guess is still on the table. Really the question is how strong is our CAD. Gfs, cmc, icon are all very close as far as track of LP.
We have two camps still for the track though. Fv3 is way north.
There is a ton of stuff to iron out first.
And right now I think the cmc is the last in the pack. But it’s on the table.
Canadian says lights out as well, massive swath of .6-.9 of zr
Doesn't matter how it got there, it's there. At H5 it's identical to the 06z FV3, which is in lockstep with the 00z Euro. Zero chance the CMC is going to handle the surface better than the FV3, Euro and even the operational GFS.
Fountainguy97
Member
wow. Most of this falls just at or below a .1 inch per hour rate. I'd say if this was real most areas would see .5-.7+ of zr. Its not extremely cold so there would be some runoff and melting.
It is the CMC and it is by itself. But this is on the table. Just not a very likely outcome at this time.
It is the CMC and it is by itself. But this is on the table. Just not a very likely outcome at this time.
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snowlover91
Member
Fwiw the 06z Euro shifted back south some as did the 06z FV3. I think the FV3 is a northern outlier at this point. CMC often does better in CAD setups as well, the op GFS has a warm bias in these setups. There are a lot of moving pieces right now especially in the northern stream and with how all the energy interacts. We will continue seeing various solutions the next 24-36 hours until the energy comes onshore and things settle down. The CMC p-type depiction is the most reasonable given the overall synoptic setup IMO, someone is going to get a nasty ice storm.
Jessy89
Member
Cmc is the only model giving upstate Sc a ice storm. But If it really verified we be in trouble. Power out
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Just for the record, the CMC p-type distribution is completely unrealistic and almost definitely erroneous as is it's surface low track given the H5 setup matches the FV3 and ECMWF. If I were working at a NWS office I wouldn't even consider it's solution.
During the early December winter storm, temperatures for us actually did end up slightly cooler during the event than predicted by the models. During most of the heaviest snowfall surface temperatures hovered at around 30-31°F. Models predicted temperatures would remain at or above freezing for the entire event. It's hard for me to discount the CMC at this time for that reason. Not looking like much of a snow event at all though if you live east of I-85 this time.
Fountainguy97
Member
GFS, CMC, ICON, and latest UK all have very similar LP track. Mostly west to east. NAM is actually not far from them and by 84 the lowest MB is down right where other models have it while the NAM's precip field is way north.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I wouldn’t toss the CMC until the RGEM and NAM are within their day 2 ish wheelhouses, and have provided their input and I’d concur the CMC is not bad with CAD once it has a pulse on the large scale pattern which is usually its downfall. I’ve seen cases where the GFS & Euro are equally bad with CAD events, but the CMC usually can’t get the synoptic pattern right so often misses badly.
snowlover91
Member
Fwiw the 00z CMC ensembles also supported a very icy scenario for CAD regions.
It does seem weird that the CMC shows rain northwest of sleet/ZR. Did not notice that. There could be a narrow icing corridor with cold rain to the south and east and sleet/snow to the north and west.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
So if it is wrong, do you think it will be more snow or just rain?