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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

BINGO. I should have been clearer.


Atleast not for the areas on the outter edge of the CAD region. Maybe it’s a different story for areas in the center of the CAD region.


I think too we are confusing strength of wedge versus the extent. I don’t think a colder wedge necessarily translates to a larger wedge.

We can see very cold but small wedges and very very large but warm wedges.

I think a lot of us (atleast myself) unconsciously tend to tie a colder wedge to a more widespread wedge which isnt the case.
 
If you’re on the fringe of this thing and want to see a little bit of frozen precip you need to hope the wedge is down into Atlanta when the NAM comes into range. That has been my experience
 
To add to the wedge always stronger talk, I would argue that the wedge really didn’t take shape until the event started or a bit later in December. This is forecasted to different. As Shane said, the wedge will be in place for a number of hours well before precipitation comes in. That’s a HUGE difference.

Agreed, timing was an issue with last month's storm. Comparing this storm's CAD setup to last month is apples and oranges. Plus you have much lower dewpoint temps to work with than last month's storm. (low to mid teens vs low 20s to 30s) I still wouldn't rule out NE GA (Gainesville north and east) getting some snow/ice on the front end assuming the precip moves in fast enough to take full advantage of the CAD.
 
How is this looking for extreme NM Tennessee? Say, from Clarksville toward the MS river?
 
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The GFS looks like a step in the right direction. IMO In terms of it being farther south.
 
00z GFS with a lot more ZR as opposed to
snow for favored areas in NC at 18z. Maybe snow at the onset then over to ZR and a lot of it. No thanks
 
I love how snow makes it all the way to the cost in the Mid Atlantic before precip even begins to fall in SC. That’s part of the problem I would think as far as cold air transport is concerned
 
snow for favored areas in NC at 18z. Maybe snow at the onset then over to ZR and a lot of it. No thanks[/QUOTE]

Yep this has high impact ice storm written all over it. Been down this road many a time, and h5 set up is lined up perfect to drive a thorn in alot of folks side... no power...
 
I honestly think CAD areas of NC and Upstate (N of 85) can start thinking about an Ice storm. This has Miller B written all over it.

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