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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

Kylo said:
Posting this to see if it's right. RGEM is a driving sleet storm for western NC.

Your right. But 10 minute drive east of that sleet line is an inch of freezing rain for my backyard. If I ever hope a model is wrong,its this one. Been getting drilled by it for the
Past 4 cycles.
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Here is latest FV...this is picking up anything frozen but it's gone up past 4 runs west of 85. Hope you don't lose power!

Latest 0z on top and 12z on bottom.

gfs_namer_036_snodpth_chng.gifgfs_namer_048_snodpth_chng.gif
 
One thing I’ve learned in this hobby is to “never say never.” And yet, I feel confident in saying that we aren’t getting anywhere close to 1” ice accrual tomorrow night. That’s not to say that we won’t have a good ice storm. But 1”? Never...at least not tomorrow. ;)
 
Poimen said:
One thing I’ve learned in this hobby is to “never say never.” And yet, I feel confident in saying that we aren’t getting anywhere close to 1” ice accrual tomorrow night. That’s not to say that we won’t have a good ice storm. But 1”? Never...at least not tomorrow. ;)
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Oh i agree. Had mby forecast out for 2 days. White mulch,roof, .25 -.30 freezing rain.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
What’s Euro show?
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The 0z run looks even warmer and less icy in the piedmont, tries to keep the precip even in much of the Triad largely liquid. We’ll see about that personally think it’s a bit overzealous but the timing and depth of the cold air with temps having to cool to freezing due to saturation and then have to contend with precip rates and latent heating due to freezing trying to bump the temps back up to freezing isn’t the best recipe for a big ice storm around here. Usually like to see dews down into the teens, some nice fresh, deep snow cover over most of the NE US and maybe into the mid Atlantic with cold air being in place before the precipitation starts, we will have none of these here. Blue ridge escarpment and areas near & NW of the Triad are most likely to see the greatest impacts overall.
 
JHS said:
This will probably be trouble for the northern 2/3 of Greenville and Spartanburg counties, even some areas south of I-85. Most of Cherokee county too and maybe down to my part of Union county. This one is tough because 1-2 degrees can make a WORLD of difference. I give a 10-25% chance that this gets down into Anderson and Laurens counties too.
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Well, I feel pretty safe down here! At 11pm it was 29.6 imby, now it’s 37.4@ 3:30 am! It can wetbulb it’s ass off, but warming today , the lowest we go is 35 after precip starts, that not a recipe for a screaming ice storm!? Rooting for my NC peeps tho!
 
That band looks good on radar. Would not be surprised to see some flakes here in the next hour.
 
I don't know how much of a difference it will make farther out in time, but as of 12Z, all of the higher-res short-range models (NAM; 3K NAM; HRRR; RGEM) are about 3-8 degrees too warm with their surface dew points. Of that group, the RGEM was the closest to reality and the HRRR the farthest away from reality.
 
Poimen said:
I don't know how much of a difference it will make farther out in time, but as of 12Z, all of the higher-res short-range models (NAM; 3K NAM; HRRR; RGEM) are about 3-8 degrees too warm with their surface dew points. Of that group, the RGEM was the closest to reality and the HRRR the farthest away from reality.
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I'm pretty sure that the HRRR has a known bias to be too warm in its longer range. You can drive yourself crazy looking at it every hour. (I'm speaking from experience here.)
 
In addition, the FV3 is verifying within a degree of the actual dew point as of 12Z from it's 6Z run. And the FV3 eventually puts down .4-.5" ice accrual in the NW Piedmont.
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An interesting piece of information on the Raleigh NWS discussion was that they were using a .4:1 ratio for ice accrual. .7” of qpf would result in .28” of ice accrual and meet the warning criteria threshold.
 
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