Looks like there were a few more members that went toward a full miller b look with the primary heading toward Chattanooga before the secondary got going off of the nc coast.
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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th
- Thread starter whatalife
- Start date
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Yes
Snownut
Member
That would be a safe bet right now. I think it looks like a mix due to tad warmer temps in upstate. But if we get a more southerly track then of course that would change to more snow/sleet.
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The FV3 is still in it's experimental stage, so it won't be available at times.
The hp has been retreating on the gfs, something to watch
Yes, that is a meso high, there is a wedge there. Icy conditions for western NC to central NC, and maybe extreme upstate SC.
I'm looking at that too.18z GFS tried to reignite precip just too positively tilted. I could see that trending better.
accu35
Member
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I notice that to yesterday on the FV3, it started showing some extra energy before the gfs did. Something to watch indeed
Last time we saw that I'm pretty sure north GA saw some ice as well.
Nomanslandva
Member
FV3 is still running here: https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model...p=Model Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&ps=area
At least I think that is it. Looking at the products available there though, it is a little harder to tell trends. It does look to be the farthest north of all the models though.
I also tried to go back and look at the Dec system to see if the FV3 was ever over amped compared to the others at this range but could not really find what I was looking for. Limited time and the thing is going to do what it does
At least I think that is it. Looking at the products available there though, it is a little harder to tell trends. It does look to be the farthest north of all the models though.
I also tried to go back and look at the Dec system to see if the FV3 was ever over amped compared to the others at this range but could not really find what I was looking for. Limited time and the thing is going to do what it does
packfan98
Moderator
I think far NE GA will receive a winter mix at the onset, changing over to a cold rain.
Kylo
Member
CAD has steadily trending stronger on all guidance
packfan98
Moderator
Thanks, I think. Seems to continue the trend of the day. I hope tomorrow we can push this thing back south a bit. I’m fine with more HP if it results in a sleet fest or snow. No thanks on the ice storm, but it looks more probable that someone will get one. #lightsout
What is the name of it in there? I don’t see it name fv3 in there.FV3 is still running here: https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php?group=Model Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&ps=area
At least I think that is it. Looking at the products available there though, it is a little harder to tell trends. It does look to be the farthest north of all the models though.
I also tried to go back and look at the Dec system to see if the FV3 was ever over amped compared to the others at this range but could not really find what I was looking for. Limited time and the thing is going to do what it does
SnowNiner
Member
Just keeps amping up more and more. Not a fan of Miller b's. Unless this trends a good bit colder or south, which I guess it could, I think this would just be an advisory level front end ice glaze that's gone and melts Sunday afternoon imby.
Really would love to get a miller A to come through with the 850s in Columbia, sc at some point in Feb.
Really would love to get a miller A to come through with the 850s in Columbia, sc at some point in Feb.
Nomanslandva
Member
I believe it is just GFS on the eval site. It does look a bit different than the prod GFS on TT
Jon
Member
It will probably go back and forth.
12z Euro Vort shows how amplification (NE low track) is hard for this system. Energy digs, but ridge ends up cutting off and loses the true +PNA form. Energy over Cali adds insult to injury and further disrupts amplification. Waves flatten across SE and ride off coast, leading to a suppressed system (unable to amplify too much if at all)
This is on our side. Small “trends” or wobbles in track will happen, like today, but we are basically asking do we want snow or a bad ice storm? All rain to me seems unlikely, at least for CAD areas.
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