Winter Storm Warning !!! 4 to 7 inches.
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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th
- Thread starter whatalife
- Start date
Kylo
Member
The 18z RGEM is lunacy. Never seen freezing rain even modeled that severe.
Snownut
Member
Chris Justice just said not much in the upstate but a cold rain. They have to be hugging the GFS, EURO. Why? Those two are by themselves on this and we all know how bad they are in these type setups.
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D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Someone get the RGEM cured off the Wild Turkey, please.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Seems the local forecasters around here always go with the model showing the least impact, and then they increase things if they have to as the event unfolds.
So do we toss that run of the rgem? I’m pretty sure with precip that heavy that latent heat release from raindrops would warm it up quicker than modeled
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Only thing that worries me about the RGEM is that it’s a very good short range model.
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Deleted member 1449
Guest
The 18Z GFS looks like its going to be amped on the qpf, too.
SnowNiner
Member
Someone get the RGEM cured off the Wild Turkey, please.
Where is it coming up with that much qpf? This isn't the December storm here, it's a strung out Miller B.
I'm guessing the NAM 3k probably has a better handle on this. 
But what do I know.
If 18Z RGEM is right...uh oh
Lights out across NC
Lights out across NC
snowlover91
Member
IMO based on the synoptics here I would lean to the lower side of qpf guidance. You have a dry airmass in place, some weak reinforcement from the 1040HP and a miller B transferring energy to the coast. That's usually not a recipe for heavy precip anywhere except along the coastal areas when the low transfers. Perhaps the RGEM is right but I like the 3km NAM in this scenario, it seems a bit more realistic.
Having said that, the heavy precip shown by the RGEM would likely warm the surface if it's freezing rain due to the latent heat release mentioned.
Having said that, the heavy precip shown by the RGEM would likely warm the surface if it's freezing rain due to the latent heat release mentioned.
NCSNOW
Member
I have and I've seen it verify to. December 2002. Wiped out power 100% county
Kylo
Member
I don’t remember the forecast or models showing how bad 2002 ended up being. Though, maybe it was just Raleigh that over performed over rain.
NCSNOW
Member
It was a slam dunk from 5 days out. Super cold ,highs in low 20s and over a inch qpf. Warm nose for sleet was only thing we had to zero in on. Knew it was gonna be there and we git about 2 inches snow,hour sleet,the freezing rain for hours with temps hoovering around 23 to 26 before it ended.
Fountainguy97
Member
Temp nose dived down to 30 already here in SE Wake. Most guidance held me around 32 all night...
Will have to see if we continue to dive or level out.
Will have to see if we continue to dive or level out.
Yep only 6:49 and down to 32 with a forecasted low of 31, looks like radiational cooling may minimize the temps right when cloud cover arrives, step 1 for a stronger/colder wedge
If models only underestimated the wedge as much as they did radiational cooling we'd all be in trouble with this system lol.... down to 24, lowest modeled temp 31, that's laughable.
Fountainguy97
Member
Yeah thankfully this is simply radiational cooling. As soon as the sun rises tmrw we will skyrocket to what models show!
If precip was arriving this morning at 4-5am this would be a huge event for a lot of us.
drfranklin
Member
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38.2/21 - expecting some sleet tomorrow AM - then, a very cold rain
MichaelJ
Member
29temp DP 15 at 9:00pm
29 with a dp of 22.
NAM still lights out for y'all in WNC, might be a tick colder......
Definitely colder looks like a few more counties in upstate SC get in on the bad stuff this run
Definitely colder looks like a few more counties in upstate SC get in on the bad stuff this run
ForsythSnow
Moderator
41/24 here and temps are going down faster than expected.
NAM continues to trend more amped at H5 with less wedging.
35.4˚/15 DP right now.... not sure what to expect right now
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Literally feet away it looks. I'd interpret that as probably for all of N and E forsyth.
Has me around .25-.35 range
NAM is trying to juice up that backside snow....
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Hug the accuweather local forecast! Must be weighing heavily on the NAM!?
Wedge actually looks stronger. Safely into upstate sc with some wiggle room. If you like ice I guess
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Precip going up. I’m getting worried about keeping the lights on here.
Nomanslandva
Member
I know we have talked about the dry bias of the 3K but this is just a very strange looking splotchy solution for a winter event. 
RDPS still delivering insane totals at 0z
JHS
Member
This will probably be trouble for the northern 2/3 of Greenville and Spartanburg counties, even some areas south of I-85. Most of Cherokee county too and maybe down to my part of Union county. This one is tough because 1-2 degrees can make a WORLD of difference. I give a 10-25% chance that this gets down into Anderson and Laurens counties too.
Kylo
Member
RGEM with some light snow in northern NC tomorrow afternoon/evening.
Kylo
Member
Interesting see the RGEM shift south up in Va with heaviest precip.
Kylo
Member
And GFS gets precip in early tomorrow afternoon/evening and shows some light snow down I40.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Trend of the afternoon and now night runs: qpf up.