SnowNiner
Member
It's amazing how hard it is to get the 850 line into SC.
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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th
- Thread starter whatalife
- Start date
SnowNiner
Member
I think they're feeling the trend today of this thing being more amped and more precip going north. It may not be done, who knows?
packfan98
Moderator
EPS clown map:
EPS snow mean looks pretty good, improved over it's 0z run for sure...
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Looks like the Euro is catching on. Most of the models have been improving today for NC. Hope we see that continue like we did for the December storm.
packfan98
Moderator
Precip map from the EPS. Totals doubled. Getting juicy at the very least.
Wilkesboro Special. High probability this thing continues the north trend though. MA sitting pretty atm
I hope the Midlands of SC trend colder and colder.
man you know this isn't our storm. I wouldn't cling to any hope for that. We need that snowpack to the North to keep building. We normally have to go through a few near misses before one connects around here.
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Kylo
Member
My concern is growing that this may be more of a IP/ZR threat between I-85 and I-95 in NC (the RDU corridor). Today's 12z CMC and ECMWF are examples of that. Generally models are much lower with snow totals this time compared to the last event, but the ice threat may be greater. Will need to continue monitoring.
Southern Greenville county. Moving in the wrong direction though for us I’m afraid. Rarely do we move things south at this point in the game. CAD is usually underdone but at this point I would like to see the 32 degree line down around Atlanta. I know it’s a step down process though. Ours is coming
snowlover91
Member
Here's some pretty cool maps contrasting the GEFS low tracks with the GEPS. There is still considerable spread on how far north/south the low tracks which will have significant implications upstream.
Fountainguy97
Member
Hey guys I just noticed an interesting close range trend on NAM.
Check out our southern energy off the coast.
It may not mean anything at all but this is a very chaotic and sensitive storm at the 5H level. Some of these little ticks can make a big difference.
As far as what this trend does for us I have no clue. Maybe some can chime in on what a deeper souther piece would do?
Check out our southern energy off the coast.
It may not mean anything at all but this is a very chaotic and sensitive storm at the 5H level. Some of these little ticks can make a big difference.
As far as what this trend does for us I have no clue. Maybe some can chime in on what a deeper souther piece would do?
snowlover91
Member
Something interesting about this is how our trough has been nudging south/west some and then the Baja energy is consolidating to the south more. I would think consolidating it to the south further would be better for snow/ice since it will bring the 850 low track to the south and less WAA as well. Worth keeping an eye on for sure.
Avalanche
Member
LOL, 4 inches for Guilford County, and 3 for Alamance. Weenie map!!! However local mets are growing in confidence that some areas of north and western piedmont could see some wintry mix out of this.
snowlover91
Member
The key for many areas hoping to see snow is the track of the 850 low. Right now I don't see anything to push this south, even the Euro has this feature pretty far north in southern Kentucky. Ideally you want to be just north of this feature for the heaviest snows, the preferred track for NC would take this low through north/central GA off Wilmington. It needs to shift south a few hundred miles to keep the WAA at bay and take this track which I don't see happening... leaving us with a solid CAD setup featuring a burst of snow (overrunning precip) followed by a transition to sleet and freezing rain for CAD areas and plain rain along and east of the climo favored areas.
I know this has been talked about before, and def. needs too...NAM did have the lowest TD's, initially, with the DEC storm only to raise them all the way up to the global levels as we go closer. I will say though, they are a touch lower than the 12z run. If we sped this precipitation up even 6 hours, it would be a total ice fest (with the dry air around) for more people.. So, we see what happens with that.
I want to also say, I think this is more ICY vs the snow that many got last time. I would say WNC obviously has the best shot at the most snow with this, but I think the ICE threat is much more the main event vs snow this time.