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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

deltadog03 said:
I want to also say, I think this is more ICY vs the snow that many got last time. I would say WNC obviously has the best shot at the most snow with this, but I think the ICE threat is much more the main event vs snow this time.
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And the same holds true for TN also with ice being a bigger threat than snow ?
 
deltadog03 said:
I know this has been talked about before, and def. needs too...NAM did have the lowest TD's, initially, with the DEC storm only to raise them all the way up to the global levels as we go closer. I will say though, they are a touch lower than the 12z run. If we sped this precipitation up even 6 hours, it would be a total ice fest (with the dry air around) for more people.. So, we see what happens with that.
View attachment 10324
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The NAM really isn't that far off from the GFS, at least in NC where dp's are 14-18 range on the GFS and the NAM shows 10-16 so not much of a difference there. The bigger difference is in GA and other areas where it's a bit drier on the NAM vs the GFS. I definitely think this is a ice threat that will be a bit more widespread than modeled if the low travels along the Gulf Coast. A 1040+ HP building in with low teens for dewpoints will take a long time to scour out especially if the surface low travels along the Gulf Coast as modeled.
 
ICON seems farther south this run let’s see how it goes.
 
Something else to watch is where the 5H energy enters the US. This won't become clear for another 1-2 days as it splits off and enters the US but look at the differences only about 60 hours out on models. This will have significant downstream implications regarding the degree of northern stream interaction, WAA, etc.

ICON 18z run has northern Baja.
1546982179572.png

GFS has it hundreds of miles north.
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And CMC has a "middle ground" approach splitting the difference.
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snowlover91 said:
Something else to watch is where the 5H energy enters the US. This won't become clear for another 1-2 days as it splits off and enters the US but look at the differences only about 60 hours out on models. This will have significant downstream implications regarding the degree of northern stream interaction, WAA, etc.

ICON 18z run has northern Baja.
View attachment 10325

GFS has it hundreds of miles north.
View attachment 10326

And CMC has a "middle ground" approach splitting the difference.
View attachment 10327
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Good eye. This is a big factor as these things like to exit the country at the same latitude they entered
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Good eye. This is a big factor as these things like to exit the country at the same latitude they entered
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A track further south would be big for the initial overrunning precip, most of that stays just to the north in VA and bringing the entire system south some would limit the WAA and allow for more snow in NC and other places as well.
 
Even if they are different storms, I'm getting a winter storm Jonas vibe when it comes to us the the cad areas, sleet/Zr
 
Need to hope that this trends to more of a IP storm, many bigger mets aren't really talking about ice potential yet
 
Ethan80963 said:
Those boarderline temps are good since the ICON has a warm bias. Right?
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It depends on if a person likes being without power or not. Verbatim the ICON is light to moderate QPF which accrues more effectively if it is freezing rain with borderline 30-32 temps. It would be a pretty bad ice storm (assuming it's zr and not sleet) especially in the CAD regions where that will lock in.
 
metwannabe said:
That would be lights out right there.... I'd wager you could trim another degree or 2 off those numbers as well, not good not good at all
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Oh yeah my experience with ice storms is that when temps dewpoints are in the low teens with a 1040 HP in southern Canada the surface will usually drop to 27-30 and then slowly rise. It's tough without soundings to tell if this would be sleet or freezing rain on the ICON though, no way to really know. We will have to wait and see when we get in range of the 3km NAM and RGEM for p-type forecasts.
 
As things stand at the moment, there is no way of escape for some type of winter storm for the NC Piedmont. The near-surface cold seems like as much of a slam dunk as you can get at this point. So the main questions after that are 1) how much qpf and 2) how much warming aloft occurs to make the difference between sleet or freezing rain? Model soundings are showing a large warm nose Saturday night indicative of freezing rain. If the .5-.8 qpf totals are correct, that should yield a significant ice storm.
 
snowlover91 said:
It depends on if a person likes being without power or not. Verbatim the ICON is light to moderate QPF which accrues more effectively if it is freezing rain with borderline 30-32 temps. It would be a pretty bad ice storm (assuming it's zr and not sleet) especially in the CAD regions where that will lock in.
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But what are the chances of that whole area being ZR. I think it will be sleet but that’s my opinion. Not trying to lose power either and certainly not wishing it upon anyone else. Just didn’t know how extreme of a warm bias it has.
 
Ethan80963 said:
But what are the chances of that whole area being ZR. I think it will be sleet but that’s my opinion. Not trying to lose power either and certainly not wishing it upon anyone else. Just didn’t know how extreme of a warm bias it has.
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It's hard to know since the ICON doesn't have soundings we can check to see what the whole atmosphere is like. The CMC today indicated more of a freezing rain scenario as well but I wouldn't trust any global with the p-type... the 3km NAM is usually very good at this as is the RGEM. The signals and synoptic setup certainly argue for a big ice storm right now but determining if it's zr or ip is something the meso models should help with when in range.
 
Nice change on the GFS at 102, the 5h energy is south and looking more like an overrunning/weak Miller A setup.
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