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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th
- Thread starter whatalife
- Start date
packfan98
Moderator
Looking like the GEFS took a small step back on the 18z. Less high pressure to the north. Someone else can chime in with the 5H setup.
Jessy89
Member
Mix to rain for a lot of areas
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18z GFS and FV3 have northern stream diving in faster causing an early phase and more Northwest/amped track.
packfan98
Moderator
I know that potential phasing is usually the last thing to get sorted out for a storm. Yesterday there was almost no models showing stream interaction. Combine that with the gfs bias of being suppressed at this point in the game, do you think there’s a good chance of this one going north? It’s probably too early to say.
Do you think it's possible that the northern stream can press further south and the phase will be over the GOM?
Jessy89
Member
Well that is one way to get it north. The problem is like I said earlier, you need absolutely perfect timing. As modeled, phase and it goes north or if the southern wave is stronger and the northern stream is weaker, you get more separation then amplification and it goes north.
Besides the lucky mooks in NC who get the trump card of CAD, we need the southern wave to dig much farther south which is unlikely due to the ridge location or the northern stream to dig at the perfect time to shear the southern wave but not kill it. I believe most of us will be waiting until next time.
Besides the lucky mooks in NC who get the trump card of CAD, we need the southern wave to dig much farther south which is unlikely due to the ridge location or the northern stream to dig at the perfect time to shear the southern wave but not kill it. I believe most of us will be waiting until next time.
Really dramatic shifts just from 12z, so for now the ensembles are obviously the best bet but even they will be subject to big shifts the next couple days in this setup.
That scenario would require the western ridge to go up taller and farther west AND for the confluence over the norttheast to increase. And even that would probably only work for the Carolinas and maybe western GA. Not a likely scenario where a phase would be beneficial in this setup at the moment IMO.
If the track of low doesn't track further south (more snow if low tracks further south) this is an icy look for CAD areas if it was colder at surface. The 850 temps aren't even cold enough to support snow on the GFS. I'm not so sure how this system will turn out just yet. It could be all snow for some, all rain, ice, winter mix to rain, etc.
I may be wrong but I don't think the FV3 has that same bias and it (as you and others have posted) phases and amps way too soon for most on here.... we may have to sacrifice this one for what's to come next.
Jon
Member
Yeah I agree. A phase isn’t what we want here, although there’s a possibility it may work for us if there is one, I’d probably root against it for this system.
The 18z gfs/FV3 phasing isn’t really a trend, the model fluctuations are way too intense at this juncture and it could easily go the other way at 00z...but this is the interaction to watch before even talking temps. Long way to go.
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That would definitely be a better CAD setup for GA if that high verifies. Much colder air in the northeast to tap.If the track of low doesn't track further south (more snow if low tracks further south) this is an icy look for CAD areas if it was colder at surface. The 850 temps aren't even cold enough to support snow on the GFS. I'm not so sure how this system will turn out just yet. It could be all snow for some, all rain, ice, winter mix to rain, etc.
MA forum is licking their chops. They sat by painfully on the early december threat. Pains me to say this. and it’s EARLY, but it might be time for them to score. You couldn’t draw up the 18z runs any better for those guys. MA special
RollTide18
Member
Well I would hope that happens
That high not in an ideal spot for CAD, here is the FV3 and again that high is wrong spot for a CAD event, it's why it showed a brief mix to rain.......If the track of low doesn't track further south (more snow if low tracks further south) this is an icy look for CAD areas if it was colder at surface. The 850 temps aren't even cold enough to support snow on the GFS. I'm not so sure how this system will turn out just yet. It could be all snow for some, all rain, ice, winter mix to rain, etc.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
There is one thing for certain. There is a signal for a storm. It is also certain the models have jumped around so much this could become anything but a blizzard. That includes a clipper, a cutter, and a good snowstorm in the realm of possibilities. Let's all remember it's just a run and the same data package from 12Z. New data will be in at 0Z and new solutions too.
A very weak nonphasing Gulf low is almost always the best chance for south of the midsouth into the Deep South. This is a good example. A very strong phasing Gulf low like The Storm of the Century (1993) that gave snow pretty far south will only occur, well, maybe every 100 or more years. Don’t be greedy. Root for a very weak far south traveling GOM low that crosses central or N FL. S FL for Phil and myself.
pcbjr
Member
