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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

cyclogent said:
Unreal, our 2 best models go 2 completely different directions and both break continuity just as we reach their wheelhouses lol. Needless to say they are struggling with this pattern. I would guess middle of the road is pretty close to MJO8/COD climo?
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Tommrow will have different story lol.
 
GaWx said:
Euro has no GOM surface low this time unlike prior two runs.
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The wave gets flattened, that's why there's really nothing there on the Euro. The low may come back on the Euro, we'll just have to see what the updated ensemble shows.
 
cyclogent said:
Unreal, our 2 best models go 2 completely different directions and both break continuity just as we reach their wheelhouses lol. Needless to say they are struggling with this pattern. I would guess middle of the road is pretty close to MJO8/COD climo?
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MJO8/COD along with -2 AO, +0.75 PNA, and weak El Nino favors colder than normal SE late week/weekend/early next week. At least that's still there fwiw.
 
Even with a crappy storm track on the fv, cad areas get all precip types including some decent zr accums, we can never escape IP/ZR
 

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Didn’t look at the text but the 0z goofy says congrats VA/Ohio Valley. Or, just no for SE/ Carolinas.

Edit: just realized this is an off hour run, therefore, we toss
 
Gefs trended a bit north with the LP, would not suprise me if models shows a miller b solution out of nowhere if they are not before the storm arrives, but it would have to be bit more of a southern track
 
That high is just to far north into Canada to keep it on s southern track. Needs to be a little further south. We maybe losing this one


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Jessy89 said:
That high is just to far north into Canada to keep it on s southern track. Needs to be a little further south. We maybe losing this one


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Nah we ain't losing it, 6 days away and things will change. Keep the positive vibes going. For MBY a quick dusting or so would be great with that first wave before the main storm.
 
That’s what it’s looking most likely like. A front end thump. Washed away by rain. Lot can change though for better or worse just wish that big high was further south


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The only model that is amped out of the big 3 is the gfs. It’s good to have the Euro in our wheelhouse. We are 130-40 hours from storm onset and 120 hours from when the interactions occurs. Models continue to struggle with the energy and northern stream.




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Jon said:
The only model that is amped out of the big 3 is the gfs. It’s good to have the Euro in our wheelhouse. We are 130-40 hours from storm onset and 120 hours from when the interactions occurs. Models continue to struggle with the energy and northern stream.




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I heard euro was amped and north to maybe I’m wrong


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Jon said:
The only model that is amped out of the big 3 is the gfs. It’s good to have the Euro in our wheelhouse. We are 130-40 hours from storm onset and 120 hours from when the interactions occurs. Models continue to struggle with the energy and northern stream.




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I completely agree. Lots of time for models to change just like they have all week. Just checked the euro maps and honestly it's not a bad system. Sure it's not a big storm but it's still there. There's snow in N GA, NC, upstate SC, and TN.
 
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Jon said:
The only model that is amped out of the big 3 is the gfs. It’s good to have the Euro in our wheelhouse. We are 130-40 hours from storm onset and 120 hours from when the interactions occurs. Models continue to struggle with the energy and northern stream.




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Yep we are in good shape with the Euro holding steady. Gfs wants to amp the primary and roll it up through the KY coalfields. Its the new bias for it to over amp things and euro to under amp over the past 2 years per Grit. Use to be the opposite.
 
I would be very wary of discounting the fv3. Three runs now it has shown this solution. The December storm it basically nailed 120hrs out but was a touch too cold.

At hr 108 the euro and fv3 are both very far north with the low but the euro squashes it while fv3 Amps it.

So really the euro isn’t all that good either. It’s not a gulf low but a northern Texas low that gets crushed, then a secondary wave pops off the coast.

Fv3 was incredibly steady from 120hrs and closer with the December storm.

My money is on it.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
I would be very wary of discounting the fv3. Three runs now it has shown this solution. The December storm it basically nailed 120hrs out but was a touch too cold.

At hr 108 the euro and fv3 are both very far north with the low but the euro squashes it while fv3 Amps it.

So really the euro isn’t all that good either. It’s not a gulf low but a northern Texas low that gets crushed, then a secondary wave pops off the coast.

Fv3 was incredibly steady from 120hrs and closer with the December storm.

My money is on it.
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I agree with you. Especially if fv3 holds serve all day today. There maybe some front end snow or mix. But I don’t think this is a winter storm by any means. Hopefully at least a advisory event for some areas but you better take pictures fast


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Jon said:
The only model that is amped out of the big 3 is the gfs. It’s good to have the Euro in our wheelhouse. We are 130-40 hours from storm onset and 120 hours from when the interactions occurs. Models continue to struggle with the energy and northern stream.




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Not to mention you have a very meh looking 0z euro (wave strength) (vs last few runs, so I will call it a glitch for now) vs a northern stream progressive biased model in the GFS. I could see this going either way, but until we get a phased up bigger storm on the ENS or euro op, I’m not going to totally buy the gfs
 
Jessy89 said:
I agree with you. Especially if fv3 holds serve all day today. There maybe some front end snow or mix. But I don’t think this is a winter storm by any means. Hopefully at least a advisory event for some areas but you better take pictures fast


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This is the fv3 trend which is now at the 5 day point which is when it locks in. DA7676A6-C018-4EEB-943B-8F6775C77F41.gif

That is not the trend we want.

There is still a chance for Western NC to start as frozen but chances of a widespread full wintry event are very low for the south IMO
 
Fountainguy97 said:
I would be very wary of discounting the fv3. Three runs now it has shown this solution. The December storm it basically nailed 120hrs out but was a touch too cold.

At hr 108 the euro and fv3 are both very far north with the low but the euro squashes it while fv3 Amps it.

So really the euro isn’t all that good either. It’s not a gulf low but a northern Texas low that gets crushed, then a secondary wave pops off the coast.

Fv3 was incredibly steady from 120hrs and closer with the December storm.

My money is on it.
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That’s recency bias though. The GFS/FV3 is the only model that amps the low. That’s cause for concern and a reason not to trust it. Until the euro caves. The euro could become more amped, which I expect somewhat, but still be worlds apart than the FV3 and be just right for N.C.


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The odds of a miller A are very very low now


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Jon said:
That’s recency bias though. The GFS/FV3 is the only model that amps the low. That’s cause for concern and a reason not to trust it. Until the euro caves. The euro could become more amped, which I expect somewhat, but still be worlds apart than the FV3 and be just right for N.C.


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You are not wrong. And I always say to take the middle solution of the two models. That’s normally how it works out. If that’s the case then there is definite chance for Western NC areas to get some mix bag wintry precip for sure!

We will have to see if fv3 backs off today or holds serve.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
I would be very wary of discounting the fv3. Three runs now it has shown this solution. The December storm it basically nailed 120hrs out but was a touch too cold.

At hr 108 the euro and fv3 are both very far north with the low but the euro squashes it while fv3 Amps it.

So really the euro isn’t all that good either. It’s not a gulf low but a northern Texas low that gets crushed, then a secondary wave pops off the coast.

Fv3 was incredibly steady from 120hrs and closer with the December storm.

My money is on it.
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You are correct in the fv3 performance from Dec. But it wasnt on a hill all by itself , saying anything most other models werent from several days out. That storm was one of the best LR modeled storms Ive seen since March 1993 superstorm. So id be very cautious throwing all my eggs in the fv3 basket until it gets a few more at bats. Jury is still out on whether it just happened to connect on a pitch its first at bat and knock it out of the park by luck, seeing how all the batters (models) where hitting soft toss batting practice that day. Or do we truly have a legit new home run slugger who can challenge the greatest of all time (euro) as the new big boy/king. So this event will be its second at bat and we will find out over the next 5 days if if can go 2 for 2. I do know at the 5H score level its not doing so well. But honestly over the past 4 weeks all models have been taking to the woodshed.
 
Here's where the UKMET ended up at 0z. Not a bad look depending on where it would go next. I always think that this model does well with these types of systems. It will be interesting to see what it looks like over the next couple of days.
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Fountainguy97 said:
This is the fv3 trend which is now at the 5 day point which is when it locks in. View attachment 10175

That is not the trend we want.

There is still a chance for Western NC to start as frozen but chances of a widespread full wintry event are very low for the south IMO
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Interesting the slp trended north, so did our high but that high also much more expansive on the latest runs...... so many moving parts, lots to sort out. Maybe another good test for the FV3 to see how well it handles northern interaction/potential phaser systems
 
packfan98 said:
Here's where the UKMET ended up at 0z. Not a bad look depending on where it would go next. I always think that this model does well with these types of systems. It will be interesting to see what it looks like over the next couple of days.
View attachment 10176
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Slp much further south then the GFS duo and that high is in a much better spot.... I'm with you, Ukie has done well in situations like this, good to see, still gives hope
 
Euro doesn't quite phase the energy diving down the rockies with the ul in TX. GFS does, thus more amped. For us I think we would want to keep them separate.

9-km ECMWF Global Pressure United States 500 hPa Rel Vorticity 120.png
 
This is where I'd really like to see a much more expansive snow pack up to the north. Had we not endured such a mild period for so long, we may have had that. But alas. The air is quite cold up in Canada, but it will be important to see how strong the high ends up being. The usual trends that we see are to weaken highs through time and for the entire height field to be less suppressed as we close in. It's one of the main reasons I very much favor overwhelming suppression out at longer leads.

My guess is is that the the foothills and particularly the mountains have the best potential to see more than an advisory event. I would favor the Piedmont areas for some wintry weather before changing to rain. The good news is, if this one does amp up, it will have a good chance of laying down some important snow cover up north, which will have a good chance of sticking around, as it looks like we're moving into a better pattern, finally, for east coast cold.
 
1300m said:
As I had mentioned last night, continuing to see a trend stronger with the parent high. Would still like to see it further south, but not sure if that is in the cards with this setup. Also, GEFS low track much further south than last couple runs of the GFS/FV3.

View attachment 10180
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EPS has been consistent with that feature but hasn't been weakening the ebNAO as quick.

EPSnao.gif
 
Rain Cold said:
This is where I'd really like to see a much more expansive snow pack up to the north. Had we not endured such a mild period for so long, we may have had that. But alas. The air is quite cold up in Canada, but it will be important to see how strong the high ends up being. The usual trends that we see are to weaken highs through time and for the entire height field to be less suppressed as we close in. It's one of the main reasons I very much favor overwhelming suppression out at longer leads.

My guess is is that the the foothills and particularly the mountains have the best potential to see more than an advisory event. I would favor the Piedmont areas for some wintry weather before changing to rain. The good news is, if this one does amp up, it will have a good chance of laying down some important snow cover up north, which will have a good chance of sticking around, as it looks like we're moving into a better pattern, finally, for east coast cold.
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This right here..... may be a hard pill to swallow because it would mean we have to wait a little longer in an already impatient environment but this is important moving forward. I'd rather lose too amped then for it to be suppressed to oblivion (if we lose it at all)
 
The Nam should do better with the cold air. When we are in Nam range


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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
12Z ICON much snowier as it runs a weak low along the northern gulf with a big arctic high to the north. Really picking up on CAD now.
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Huge improvement and the ICON has been on the warmer side here lately so maybe the start of something good with today's 12z model suites

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_44.png
 
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