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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

Webberweather53 said:
I mentioned this earlier either here or on the Jan blog, most near the I-20 corridor will have to wait for the EPO to tank before getting a really good sniff of the action.
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Webber, at what time frame are you looking for this to happen? I believe I seen deltadog post daily epo drops right??
 
DarkKnight said:
Webber, at what time frame are you looking for this to happen? I believe I seen deltadog post daily epo drops right??
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I believe he was posting the SOI numbers. I'm not webber but synoptically I would look for the EPO to tank end of January into early February.
 
Rain Cold said:
So far, this hasn't looked like a setup synoptically where a large portion of the SE gets a winter storm. We're at virtually the inception of a potential pattern change from crap to non-crap. Once we get deeper into a better pattern, I would expect many more areas will be looking at the threat of wintry weather.
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Exactly. It might hurt, but most models have shown this to be a northern fringe of NC and triad/foothills/mountains event. The pattern change with blocking over the top and super tall +PNA will help force cold and storms south.
 
RollTide18 said:
Yeah another NC event but our time will come.
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Not sure its much of a NC threat. WRAL has said today that colder air is coming in, but by the time the moisture arrives this weekend the atmosphere would be too warm to support anything frozen in the Triangle area. Maybe the mountains...
 
Avalanche said:
Not sure its much of a NC threat. WRAL has said today that colder air is coming in, but by the time the moisture arrives this weekend the atmosphere would be too warm to support anything frozen in the Triangle area. Maybe the mountains...
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It might end up like that, but I would not take stock in what WRAL is saying now. They always say the same thing this far out no matter what. They had me with 1 to 2 inches of snow to start with the last storm and ended up getting close to 10.
 
Brick Tamland said:
It might end up like that, but I would not take stock in what WRAL is saying now. They always say the same thing this far out no matter what. They had me with 1 to 2 inches of snow to start with the last storm and ended up getting close to 10.
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I usually do when it comes to snow totals and storm impact. However, when it comes to temps supporting a winter storm, they are usually fair with the public about that....nevermind they've messed that up before too.
 
ILN has introduced a chance of snow here on Sat. I may get lucky after all ! And if you are in the south and want snow, you should be rooting for me since a snowpack here would help you guys later !
 
I don't think we can be too sure about anything until we see how far southwest the cold air at 850 to the surface drives with the frontal passage on tuesday and wednsday...I know it will be on our doorstep then, but I believe that system will lay the ground work for the weekend.
 
FV3 is having another crazy high totals party all by itself. 2 feet in western Arkansas, 6-8 inches in Upstate SC, etc.
 
Bsud said:
This looks like a repeat of the DEC storm, especially for the CAD regions of NC and Upstate.

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You think upstate sc gets this one?


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Yeah FWIW 18Z has a stronger cold press (1046! High that is further south), less of a Great Lakes low to mess up confluence, and a further south low. Starting to slowly march towards the Euro
 
I guess something to remember is the gfs has a warm bias. Fv3 probably has the right idea


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Yep, gfs brings higher mslp anomalies further south, slightly less amped lp. hp near the GL's, that cad signature is stronger on the 18z aswell, cad areas get hammered with all modes of wintry precip with that look, oof the ice it shows
 
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18z running off old 12z data. 0z will be very interesting tonight, not for my area but for my chasing
 
Jessy89 said:
Probably a mix to rain. Question his how long the mixed stuff last


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I can count on both hands and feet, how many times this forecast was given( changeover) , and it stayed all frozen. I think the ultimate track will be a blend of 12z Euro and 18Z GFS. Not as amped as GFS and not as suppressed as Euro! Mix line along and N/NW of 85
 
Tarheel1 said:
I can count on both hands and feet, how many times this forecast was given( changeover) , and it stayed all frozen. I think the ultimate track will be a blend of 12z Euro and 18Z GFS. Not as amped as GFS and not as suppressed as Euro! Mix line along and N/NW of 85
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I sure hope this is the case. I’m looking forward to see the fv3 I think that has a better handle then the gfs.


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Yep, many times when mets like brad p says it will turn to rain at the end of the event, it stays frozen, he said that would happen the last storm and it never changed over to rain, just sleet/zr
 
Tarheel1 said:
I can count on both hands and feet, how many times this forecast was given( changeover) , and it stayed all frozen. I think the ultimate track will be a blend of 12z Euro and 18Z GFS. Not as amped as GFS and not as suppressed as Euro! Mix line along and N/NW of 85
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You nailed it. It’s really not a hard forecast when models are already flirting with 85 at this lead. CAD may be stronger but 32 degree heavy rain still equals rain. We’ll see where things go from here. It could be a sleetfest to ZR but for now I will reluctantly lean towards 33 degree rain here in the southern part of the upstate
 
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
You nailed it. It’s really not a hard forecast when models are already flirting with 85 at this lead. CAD may be stronger but 32 degree heavy rain still equals rain. We’ll see where things go from here. It could be a sleetfest to ZR but for now I will reluctantly lean towards 33 degree rain here in the upstate
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Bingo for now that’s the best guess


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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
You nailed it. It’s really not a hard forecast when models are already flirting with 85 at this lead. CAD may be stronger but 32 degree heavy rain still equals rain. We’ll see where things go from here. It could be a sleetfest to ZR but for now I will reluctantly lean towards 33 degree rain here in the upstate
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But you are speaking specifically of your location correct? Because North of 85 through places like TR, Pickens, Easley, downtown Greenville, places like that looks frozen precip



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Also, while we can’t completely ignore a major global model’s output, we have to be wary of one that’s spitting out a 1046/1047 highs. I think the EPS earlier had it somewhere in the mid 1030’s which to me is more realistic. WNC/MA slopfest is my early call with this one. Hopeful for some major changes though
 
Bsud said:
But you are speaking specifically of your location correct? Because North of 85 through places like TR, Pickens, Easley, downtown Greenville, places like that looks frozen precip



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Yes I’m just south by a hair. North of 85 always with a better shot. IMO no one in he CAD region is out of it right now though. Need the less amp’d solution to maximize our potential down this way
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Also, while we can’t completely ignore a major global model’s output, we have to be wary of one that’s spitting out a 1046/1047 highs. I think the EPS earlier had it somewhere in the mid 1030’s which to me is more realistic. WNC/MA slopfest is my early call with this one. Hopeful for some major changes though
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The euro op has from what I can see a 1038, but it could be stronger at other parts of the run. The GEFS has a 1040 and the EPS is around 1037 max.
 
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