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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

cyclogent said:
Unreal, our 2 best models go 2 completely different directions and both break continuity just as we reach their wheelhouses lol. Needless to say they are struggling with this pattern. I would guess middle of the road is pretty close to MJO8/COD climo?
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Tommrow will have different story lol.
 
GaWx said:
Euro has no GOM surface low this time unlike prior two runs.
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The wave gets flattened, that's why there's really nothing there on the Euro. The low may come back on the Euro, we'll just have to see what the updated ensemble shows.
 
cyclogent said:
Unreal, our 2 best models go 2 completely different directions and both break continuity just as we reach their wheelhouses lol. Needless to say they are struggling with this pattern. I would guess middle of the road is pretty close to MJO8/COD climo?
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MJO8/COD along with -2 AO, +0.75 PNA, and weak El Nino favors colder than normal SE late week/weekend/early next week. At least that's still there fwiw.
 
Even with a crappy storm track on the fv, cad areas get all precip types including some decent zr accums, we can never escape IP/ZR
 

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Didn’t look at the text but the 0z goofy says congrats VA/Ohio Valley. Or, just no for SE/ Carolinas.

Edit: just realized this is an off hour run, therefore, we toss
 
Gefs trended a bit north with the LP, would not suprise me if models shows a miller b solution out of nowhere if they are not before the storm arrives, but it would have to be bit more of a southern track
 
That high is just to far north into Canada to keep it on s southern track. Needs to be a little further south. We maybe losing this one


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Jessy89 said:
That high is just to far north into Canada to keep it on s southern track. Needs to be a little further south. We maybe losing this one


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Nah we ain't losing it, 6 days away and things will change. Keep the positive vibes going. For MBY a quick dusting or so would be great with that first wave before the main storm.
 
That’s what it’s looking most likely like. A front end thump. Washed away by rain. Lot can change though for better or worse just wish that big high was further south


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The only model that is amped out of the big 3 is the gfs. It’s good to have the Euro in our wheelhouse. We are 130-40 hours from storm onset and 120 hours from when the interactions occurs. Models continue to struggle with the energy and northern stream.




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Jon said:
The only model that is amped out of the big 3 is the gfs. It’s good to have the Euro in our wheelhouse. We are 130-40 hours from storm onset and 120 hours from when the interactions occurs. Models continue to struggle with the energy and northern stream.




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I heard euro was amped and north to maybe I’m wrong


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Jon said:
The only model that is amped out of the big 3 is the gfs. It’s good to have the Euro in our wheelhouse. We are 130-40 hours from storm onset and 120 hours from when the interactions occurs. Models continue to struggle with the energy and northern stream.




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I completely agree. Lots of time for models to change just like they have all week. Just checked the euro maps and honestly it's not a bad system. Sure it's not a big storm but it's still there. There's snow in N GA, NC, upstate SC, and TN.
 
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Jon said:
The only model that is amped out of the big 3 is the gfs. It’s good to have the Euro in our wheelhouse. We are 130-40 hours from storm onset and 120 hours from when the interactions occurs. Models continue to struggle with the energy and northern stream.




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Yep we are in good shape with the Euro holding steady. Gfs wants to amp the primary and roll it up through the KY coalfields. Its the new bias for it to over amp things and euro to under amp over the past 2 years per Grit. Use to be the opposite.
 
I would be very wary of discounting the fv3. Three runs now it has shown this solution. The December storm it basically nailed 120hrs out but was a touch too cold.

At hr 108 the euro and fv3 are both very far north with the low but the euro squashes it while fv3 Amps it.

So really the euro isn’t all that good either. It’s not a gulf low but a northern Texas low that gets crushed, then a secondary wave pops off the coast.

Fv3 was incredibly steady from 120hrs and closer with the December storm.

My money is on it.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
I would be very wary of discounting the fv3. Three runs now it has shown this solution. The December storm it basically nailed 120hrs out but was a touch too cold.

At hr 108 the euro and fv3 are both very far north with the low but the euro squashes it while fv3 Amps it.

So really the euro isn’t all that good either. It’s not a gulf low but a northern Texas low that gets crushed, then a secondary wave pops off the coast.

Fv3 was incredibly steady from 120hrs and closer with the December storm.

My money is on it.
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I agree with you. Especially if fv3 holds serve all day today. There maybe some front end snow or mix. But I don’t think this is a winter storm by any means. Hopefully at least a advisory event for some areas but you better take pictures fast


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Jon said:
The only model that is amped out of the big 3 is the gfs. It’s good to have the Euro in our wheelhouse. We are 130-40 hours from storm onset and 120 hours from when the interactions occurs. Models continue to struggle with the energy and northern stream.




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Not to mention you have a very meh looking 0z euro (wave strength) (vs last few runs, so I will call it a glitch for now) vs a northern stream progressive biased model in the GFS. I could see this going either way, but until we get a phased up bigger storm on the ENS or euro op, I’m not going to totally buy the gfs
 
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