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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

I think it’s trending towards a ice storm vs snow storm


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Something else to keep an eye on but the 00z NAM has that southern wave significantly further south than the FV3-GFS. The NAM is often subject to some pretty big shifts outside of 60 hours so nothing to hang our hats on yet, but yet another thing to keep an eye on.

namconus_z500_vort_us_53.png


fv3p_z500_vort_us_16.png


Edit: The 18z GFS actually is much more similar to the NAM, so it'll be interesting to see if the further south track continues to hold.

gfs_z500_vort_us_16.png
 
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1300m said:
Something else to keep an eye on but the 00z NAM has that southern wave WAY further south than the GFS. The NAM is often subject to some pretty big shifts outside of 60 hours so nothing to hang our hats on yet, but yet another thing to keep an eye on.

namconus_z500_vort_us_53.png


fv3p_z500_vort_us_16.png


Edit: The 18z GFS actually is much more similar to the NAM, so it'll be interesting to see if the further south track continues to hold.

gfs_z500_vort_us_16.png
Click to expand...
Confluence is South also! Just give me stronger confluence, I’ll take my chances with precip!
 
The 0Z ICON looks like a significant ice storm for the NW Piedmont of NC.
 
1300m said:
Something else to keep an eye on but the 00z NAM has that southern wave significantly further south than the FV3-GFS. The NAM is often subject to some pretty big shifts outside of 60 hours so nothing to hang our hats on yet, but yet another thing to keep an eye on.

namconus_z500_vort_us_53.png


fv3p_z500_vort_us_16.png


Edit: The 18z GFS actually is much more similar to the NAM, so it'll be interesting to see if the further south track continues to hold.

gfs_z500_vort_us_16.png
Click to expand...
Also notice how nam is dropping heights out in front over the GOM. Noise for now since it’s the NAM, but something to watch
 
1012 mb low on Tx La border Sat, on 0z GFS! High strong, but in a bad spot. Could get messy in CAD
 
Low going through ATL, much more robust, not much wintry outside the mountains! We toss
 
Yeah, this storm is looking more and more likely a Mid-Atlantic/Northeastern storm. The only place that does get winter weather further south is western NC.
 
As stated above, there is a second piece of energy at the tail end of the fv3, I notice with every run the energy has came north. Second energy showed snow around Brent neck of woods, something to keep watch for sure
 
WxWatch said:
That 2nd piece of energy will be something to watch. The FV3 also has that 2nd piece of energy. There could be another system on the tail end of the first system.
396d07d9e9dd3444643979cf100ecb01.jpg
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I've been watching this to as well, each run moisture is coming north. Some gefs members show this kind of solution, not strong signal but it's there.
 
Still some sexy DP’s out ahead. This thing may come down to how fast we can get precip to start falling DBEE8803-7881-4670-9AA0-BBCD02545ABB.png
 
I still think front in snow or sleet possible but definitely not a lot especially outside mountains


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DarkKnight said:
Hate to say it. But this storm isn’t going to produce for north Alabama. Our system will be a couple weeks down the road.
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How can you say definitively what will and won't happen in the next week ?


We all know how inconsistent the models are. They can lose a system only to bring it back a few days later.
 
Some gefs members have a second energy of some what trying set in behind this storm
 
Arjen Robben said:
How can you say definitively what will and won't happen in the next week ?


We all know how inconsistent the models are. They can lose a system only to bring it back a few days later.
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Not enough cold air is established for us to have a snow for this on the 2m temps and on the 850’s.

We need a more established cold air mass to the north/northwest of us to score. I put 2 pictures of what it needs to look like for us to score.

The reason why North Carolina gets snow and not Alabama they have the CAD (Cold Air Damming) effect going for them. 93B83E69-175F-463C-9CD7-182DF22B96AF.jpeg0CD874FA-8A30-4B6D-A5B4-95E7C4637106.png
 
Euro continues to keep a more strung out/sheared wave, could this be right ? Gfs tends to overamp but pattern does support more amplified storms with a east based -nao, but we've seen things unexpectedly happen
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Euro continues to keep a more strung out/sheared wave, could this be right ? Gfs tends to overamp but pattern does support more amplified storms with a east based -nao, but we've seen things unexpectedly happen
Click to expand...

The Euro Op is more likely to be correct as it has much better support from the ensembles, both GEFS and EPS.
 
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