I really want to see how the pv is going to be honest. Gut feeling is chunks of torch and cold, cold November relaxing and warming for the first 2/3rds of December, back to cold for the end of Dec and first half of Jan with a relaxation to probably slightly AN for the 2nd half of January, solidly AN in Feb then cold sometime in mid March to early April. Globally things haven't changed much vs last winter so the expectation should be similar but the PV is a wild card and maybe we see a little more north Atlantic blocking this year vs last. It likely composites out at 2-4 AN for the season for most of the SE