I'd take a December 2000 repeat. Solid snow cover for 2 weeks and epic sledding. Though I did tear my labrum.could look like this or could be totally different lol. guess depends on if this year's "triple dip Nina" behaves like the last two and what the NAO/AO decides to do.
can confidently say it will snow in Dubuque and not snow in Key West - everybody in between just wait and see lol
View attachment 120469
View attachment 120470
View attachment 120471
View attachment 120472
View attachment 120473
Good thoughts on the upcoming winter that make a lot of sense.I think those 2 tricky words we aren’t allowed to say here has played a big role into what normal drivers are suppose to do. As we have seen all it takes is one piece of the puzzle not to act correctly and the response down stream has been completely different.
For example we have been in a La Niña pattern for now 3 years which should tell you we should be front loaded and overall drier everywhere in the southeast with SER dominating by the time February roles around. That hasn’t been the case. Last December was brutally warm until a switch hit in January and we were extremely cold and active all the way through a good portion of February when the SER should be in full force.
The MJO plays the biggest role versus just the ENSO. You get a favorable MJO and the pattern is at your mercy. Biggest thing I’m looking for is if the NAO remains negative through a good portion of winter like the last couple years but can we just get even a neutral or slightly positive PNA. When those ingredients came together last year we got snow and several other opportunities.
Overall I think we end up with about a 6 week period of cold and active pattern wise but the rest of winter will be East Coast ridge dominated but will be fighting NAO a lot too so it may not be as stout. Likely the CAD areas of NC, SC, and NE Georgia end up getting a lot of cold rainy or dreary days from the East Coast ridge that’ll always happen forcing CAD’s to dominate. I think we can get 1-2 storms but the question is will it be snow or the widespread ice storm that we are way past due for around most places finally happens.
I was coming to say the exact same thing. His Below average snowfall line different from his 'Tons of Snow' line by a few hundred miles. Look at Southern PA and WV.It's lazy. Plus his maps don't make sense. How is the MA and Northeast in above average and below snowfall but going to get huge snows.