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Pattern Winter outlook 2022/2023

iGRXY

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I think those 2 tricky words we aren’t allowed to say here has played a big role into what normal drivers are suppose to do. As we have seen all it takes is one piece of the puzzle not to act correctly and the response down stream has been completely different.

For example we have been in a La Niña pattern for now 3 years which should tell you we should be front loaded and overall drier everywhere in the southeast with SER dominating by the time February roles around. That hasn’t been the case. Last December was brutally warm until a switch hit in January and we were extremely cold and active all the way through a good portion of February when the SER should be in full force.

The MJO plays the biggest role versus just the ENSO. You get a favorable MJO and the pattern is at your mercy. Biggest thing I’m looking for is if the NAO remains negative through a good portion of winter like the last couple years but can we just get even a neutral or slightly positive PNA. When those ingredients came together last year we got snow and several other opportunities.

Overall I think we end up with about a 6 week period of cold and active pattern wise but the rest of winter will be East Coast ridge dominated but will be fighting NAO a lot too so it may not be as stout. Likely the CAD areas of NC, SC, and NE Georgia end up getting a lot of cold rainy or dreary days from the East Coast ridge that’ll always happen forcing CAD’s to dominate. I think we can get 1-2 storms but the question is will it be snow or the widespread ice storm that we are way past due for around most places finally happens.
 

EmersonGA

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could look like this or could be totally different lol. guess depends on if this year's "triple dip Nina" behaves like the last two and what the NAO/AO decides to do.
can confidently say it will snow in Dubuque and not snow in Key West - everybody in between just wait and see lol

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I'd take a December 2000 repeat. Solid snow cover for 2 weeks and epic sledding. Though I did tear my labrum.
 

CaryWx

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Farmers Almanac out. Not bad really...if to be believed.

Farmers-Almanac-Winter-Weather-Forecast-2023-675.jpg
 
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I think those 2 tricky words we aren’t allowed to say here has played a big role into what normal drivers are suppose to do. As we have seen all it takes is one piece of the puzzle not to act correctly and the response down stream has been completely different.

For example we have been in a La Niña pattern for now 3 years which should tell you we should be front loaded and overall drier everywhere in the southeast with SER dominating by the time February roles around. That hasn’t been the case. Last December was brutally warm until a switch hit in January and we were extremely cold and active all the way through a good portion of February when the SER should be in full force.

The MJO plays the biggest role versus just the ENSO. You get a favorable MJO and the pattern is at your mercy. Biggest thing I’m looking for is if the NAO remains negative through a good portion of winter like the last couple years but can we just get even a neutral or slightly positive PNA. When those ingredients came together last year we got snow and several other opportunities.

Overall I think we end up with about a 6 week period of cold and active pattern wise but the rest of winter will be East Coast ridge dominated but will be fighting NAO a lot too so it may not be as stout. Likely the CAD areas of NC, SC, and NE Georgia end up getting a lot of cold rainy or dreary days from the East Coast ridge that’ll always happen forcing CAD’s to dominate. I think we can get 1-2 storms but the question is will it be snow or the widespread ice storm that we are way past due for around most places finally happens.
Good thoughts on the upcoming winter that make a lot of sense.

For last winter, though, I never saw any "extremely cold" pattern; it never got below 20 at my house the entire winter, which is the first time that has ever happened IMBY, even with 2011-12. I'm hoping for some actual cold this year; most years I can count on at least one or two nights in the single digits, so it would be nice to at least go sub 15. I honestly don't hold out much hope for cold and snow any more, but we'll see. A +PNA and -EPO would be nice!
 

Itryatgolf

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Hey guys. I told Larry in mid December last year that with the east based niña, that it will be colder than most people forecasted, which ended up correct. Pacific was in decent shape. Pattern changed and it turned out colder for jan-march. This winter we should have the +qbo with higher sunspots, which should lead to more blocking, if correct of course. The opposite is usually true with -qbo and lower or no sunspots. I believe December will be colder than jan-march next winter. Just my two cents. I moved to jackson tn in April from Jonesboro ar so I probably will see less winter weather than where I was before 🙃
 
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CaryWx

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Yeah, no reason to look at the NAO until around Thanksgiving. More of a monthly check or even bi-weekly (sometimes) when it's close
 

smast16

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It's lazy. Plus his maps don't make sense. How is the MA and Northeast in above average and below snowfall but going to get huge snows.
I was coming to say the exact same thing. His Below average snowfall line different from his 'Tons of Snow' line by a few hundred miles. Look at Southern PA and WV.
 

Rain Cold

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Yes. LOL!
How does that knucklehead get thousands of views on all of his videos?! Extreme storms!!!!1! Serious storms!!!!111!1 Monster storms!!!!1!1!!111!!

All in a quiet and benign pattern. Who is watching that person?
 
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