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Pattern Winter outlook 2022/2023

I want to see how the high latitudes evolve this year. I believe there is a chance we could go big cold early with snow chances even as early as November. 11-12 lurks as a legit analog so dumpster fire is on the table.
 
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Same as every other year. Cold Midwest down into TX up through western TN and the Great Lakes. Warm in the SE and along the east coast up into the NE. Who cares about the west.

I'm thinking above average snowfall for a good chunk of SC and NC, due to a couple of La Nina coastals....probably N GA too. Trickier back in AL and MS, where it will probably be drier than normal. I will go near normal snowfall there.

Cold most likely in early December and late Jan/early Feb. Maybe a cold shot early March, but spring comes in quickly. NAO predominantly positive and the PNA averages near neutral for the winter. Meh.
 
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Rain Cold said:
Same as every other year. Cold Midwest down into TX up through western TN and the Great Lakes. Warm in the SE and along the east coast up into the NE. Who cares about the west.

I'm thinking above average snowfall for a good chunk of SC and NC, due to a couple of La Nina coastals....probably N GA too. Trickier back in AL and MS, where it will probably be drier than normal. I will go near normal snowfall there.

Cold most likely in early December and late Jan/early Feb. Maybe a cold shot early March, but spring comes in quickly. NAO predominantly positive and the PNA averages near neutral for the winter. Meh.
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I’m hoping for a lot of Lakes cutters and or Clippers! ⛄️
 
We still on track for a 3rd year Niña? I read an outlook that said a Nino would be showing yp in the fall? Which if that was correct, the affects wouldn’t be noticeable until spring. Thoughts??
 
My best guess is one of the three months will be close to normal, being slightly above because of warmer then average lows. The other two months will be our typical 1-3 degrees above average. Maybe we will actually get below 15 degrees this winter.
 
could look like this or could be totally different lol. guess depends on if this year's "triple dip Nina" behaves like the last two and what the NAO/AO decides to do.
can confidently say it will snow in Dubuque and not snow in Key West - everybody in between just wait and see lol

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I think the Pacific NW will fair very well this winter with Nina and the NPO inducing persistent troughs over the West. It's going to be threading needle again this year without a strong subtropical jet. Hopefully we get a good snow storm out of it though!

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severestorm said:
I think the Pacific NW will fair very well this winter with Nina and the NPO inducing persistent troughs over the West. It's going to be threading needle again this year without a strong subtropical jet. Hopefully we get a good snow storm out of it though!

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That would actually be ok with me, I’m now believing the SJ is much more hinders snow for the SE than helps.
 
I think those 2 tricky words we aren’t allowed to say here has played a big role into what normal drivers are suppose to do. As we have seen all it takes is one piece of the puzzle not to act correctly and the response down stream has been completely different.

For example we have been in a La Niña pattern for now 3 years which should tell you we should be front loaded and overall drier everywhere in the southeast with SER dominating by the time February roles around. That hasn’t been the case. Last December was brutally warm until a switch hit in January and we were extremely cold and active all the way through a good portion of February when the SER should be in full force.

The MJO plays the biggest role versus just the ENSO. You get a favorable MJO and the pattern is at your mercy. Biggest thing I’m looking for is if the NAO remains negative through a good portion of winter like the last couple years but can we just get even a neutral or slightly positive PNA. When those ingredients came together last year we got snow and several other opportunities.

Overall I think we end up with about a 6 week period of cold and active pattern wise but the rest of winter will be East Coast ridge dominated but will be fighting NAO a lot too so it may not be as stout. Likely the CAD areas of NC, SC, and NE Georgia end up getting a lot of cold rainy or dreary days from the East Coast ridge that’ll always happen forcing CAD’s to dominate. I think we can get 1-2 storms but the question is will it be snow or the widespread ice storm that we are way past due for around most places finally happens.
 
cyclogent said:
could look like this or could be totally different lol. guess depends on if this year's "triple dip Nina" behaves like the last two and what the NAO/AO decides to do.
can confidently say it will snow in Dubuque and not snow in Key West - everybody in between just wait and see lol

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I'd take a December 2000 repeat. Solid snow cover for 2 weeks and epic sledding. Though I did tear my labrum.
 
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