Brick Tamland
Member
Over a foot of snow at my house this winter. Bank on it.
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Pattern Winter outlook 2022/2023
- Thread starter whatalife
- Start date
J1C1111
Member
I'm going with 12-18 inches of snow for the nc southern foothills this upcoming winter.
Some interesting stuff…
I’m intrigued by this ! Maybe if we have polar vortex disruption in Septic and October, it’ll actually happen befor March for a change! 
What worries me most is all that warm air over Siberia. We need that region of the world to build snowpack to become the cold source for later in the winter. Hopefully the above normal temps can still get below freezing and drop snow (in Siberia that's possible).
Itryatgolf
Member
I will say some of those guys in Europe are really smart, and some are total wishcasters. I guess if that happens, would probably be an early start to winter, possibly front loaded
CanSIP looks good for the first part of the year. Typical Nina look.
Itryatgolf
Member
Ollie, how did the CanSip do last year?
I'd be more interested to know how it's doing at 1 month and 3 month leads so far this year.
EURO seasonal outlooks (remember that they had a warm October just a month ago so grains of salt obviously) show a cooler than average beginning to winter (November and December) and a warmer look for January and February.. maybe a December to remember ??
Perhaps one of these La Niñas will actually look like a La Niña with a front loaded cold first half of winter and early spring the 2nd halfEURO seasonal outlooks (remember that they had a warm October just a month ago so grains of salt obviously) show a cooler than average beginning to winter (November and December) and a warmer look for January and February.. maybe a December to remember ??
iGRXY
Member
November- probably the 3rd week of January will be cold if we get a traditional La Niña.
Don't these seasonal models rely pretty heavily on climo as you get toward the longer leads? I don't know their algorithms, but I think I remember hearing that.EURO seasonal outlooks (remember that they had a warm October just a month ago so grains of salt obviously) show a cooler than average beginning to winter (November and December) and a warmer look for January and February.. maybe a December to remember ??
There are some hints on the seasonal models that are encouraging with the pv possibly residing on our side of the pole for once, a big pac ridge, and -nao. My biggest fear for this winter is slowly going away from a big SER to a strong TPV in Canada with mediocre ridging in both oceans with a zonal flow across the conus
severestorm
Member
hot dang! -NAO! Looking forward to a 2 foot snowstorm this winter!
Avalanche
Member
Yes, I have been looking at areas like Omsk, Khatanga, Yakutsk in Siberia and Im amazed at the warmth. I bet residents (what few there are) are thankful, but will tell you in a heartbeat that its not like it once was. Maybe cold air will be transient and well distributed this year, but I'm like you, I'd rather see a good snowpack and cold build there first and foremost.
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Let’s just get that look in the winter months! I wonder what kind of winters we had while being in that kind of pattern in October and November in the past
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Can’t wait for another Halloween snowstorm for SC! That kickstarted the best winter ever!