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Pattern Winter outlook 2022/2023

iGRXY said:
I think those 2 tricky words we aren’t allowed to say here has played a big role into what normal drivers are suppose to do. As we have seen all it takes is one piece of the puzzle not to act correctly and the response down stream has been completely different.

For example we have been in a La Niña pattern for now 3 years which should tell you we should be front loaded and overall drier everywhere in the southeast with SER dominating by the time February roles around. That hasn’t been the case. Last December was brutally warm until a switch hit in January and we were extremely cold and active all the way through a good portion of February when the SER should be in full force.

The MJO plays the biggest role versus just the ENSO. You get a favorable MJO and the pattern is at your mercy. Biggest thing I’m looking for is if the NAO remains negative through a good portion of winter like the last couple years but can we just get even a neutral or slightly positive PNA. When those ingredients came together last year we got snow and several other opportunities.

Overall I think we end up with about a 6 week period of cold and active pattern wise but the rest of winter will be East Coast ridge dominated but will be fighting NAO a lot too so it may not be as stout. Likely the CAD areas of NC, SC, and NE Georgia end up getting a lot of cold rainy or dreary days from the East Coast ridge that’ll always happen forcing CAD’s to dominate. I think we can get 1-2 storms but the question is will it be snow or the widespread ice storm that we are way past due for around most places finally happens.
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Good thoughts on the upcoming winter that make a lot of sense.

For last winter, though, I never saw any "extremely cold" pattern; it never got below 20 at my house the entire winter, which is the first time that has ever happened IMBY, even with 2011-12. I'm hoping for some actual cold this year; most years I can count on at least one or two nights in the single digits, so it would be nice to at least go sub 15. I honestly don't hold out much hope for cold and snow any more, but we'll see. A +PNA and -EPO would be nice!
 
Hey guys. I told Larry in mid December last year that with the east based niña, that it will be colder than most people forecasted, which ended up correct. Pacific was in decent shape. Pattern changed and it turned out colder for jan-march. This winter we should have the +qbo with higher sunspots, which should lead to more blocking, if correct of course. The opposite is usually true with -qbo and lower or no sunspots. I believe December will be colder than jan-march next winter. Just my two cents. I moved to jackson tn in April from Jonesboro ar so I probably will see less winter weather than where I was before ?
 
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Yeah, no reason to look at the NAO until around Thanksgiving. More of a monthly check or even bi-weekly (sometimes) when it's close
 
iGRXY said:
It's lazy. Plus his maps don't make sense. How is the MA and Northeast in above average and below snowfall but going to get huge snows.
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I was coming to say the exact same thing. His Below average snowfall line different from his 'Tons of Snow' line by a few hundred miles. Look at Southern PA and WV.
 
whatalife said:
Yes. LOL!
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How does that knucklehead get thousands of views on all of his videos?! Extreme storms!!!!1! Serious storms!!!!111!1 Monster storms!!!!1!1!!111!!

All in a quiet and benign pattern. Who is watching that person?
 
severestorm said:
Ice coverage in the arctic is looking good going into the winter

View attachment 120627
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Still historically low. There is a study/theory that says more open (less ice) Arctic water promotes more blocking. But if that was true where was all our blocking these past 20 years.
 
FallsLake said:
Still historically low. There is a study/theory that says more open (less ice) Arctic water promotes more blocking. But if that was true where was all our blocking these past 20 years.
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This is where they come up with another 3 letter acronym to explain why their previous 3 letter acronym didn't pan out. IOD, PNA, PDO, MJO, SSW Etc etc.
 
SD said:
Man I'm not sure I buy a full torch winter but it's not off the table unfortunately
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You would have to bet for a warmer winter with the la nina still ongoing. I guess the one good aspect is we should see a better chance of very cold outbreaks (within the overall warm winter) that could also come with snow (..we can hope).

www.nature.com

Rare ‘triple’ La Niña climate event looks likely — what does the future hold?

Meteorologists are forecasting a third consecutive year of La Niña. Some researchers say similar conditions could become more common as the planet warms.
www.nature.com www.nature.com
 
SD said:
Man I'm not sure I buy a full torch winter but it's not off the table unfortunately
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I see no reason for anything but a 3peat here. Overall above average with a 2-3 very below average outbreak somewhere in January or early early February.

It's not a terrible pattern for cold for my location, but I could go for a good El Nino SSJ fire hose right about now.
 
Ben Knoll from twitter mentioned the euro and ukmet guidance going negative nao for at least first half of winter this upcoming winter. It would be nice to see that. Like I always say if we can get one winter storm, im content until the following winter. I feel that early if we are to see that scenario
 
Itryatgolf said:
Ben Knoll from twitter mentioned the euro and ukmet guidance going negative nao for at least first half of winter this upcoming winter. It would be nice to see that. Like I always say if we can get one winter storm, im content until the following winter. I feel that early if we are to see that scenario
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You would think with 3 Niñas in a row that one should behave like a traditional one with lot of cold and storm chances the first half and then a warmup and early spring arriving in February
 
Itryatgolf said:
Ben Knoll from twitter mentioned the euro and ukmet guidance going negative nao for at least first half of winter this upcoming winter. It would be nice to see that. Like I always say if we can get one winter storm, im content until the following winter. I feel that early if we are to see that scenario
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His model blend also shows well below normal snowfall for the winter.
 
MJO is still the biggest driver of the pattern IMO. You get into favorable phases in the MJO and you get a storm like last year where most people got above average snowfall. On top of that it was quite cold for a good 6 week span of January- Mid February. Not quite sure what that time span will be this year but even La Niña generally gets some really cold outbreaks so it won’t surprise me to see another 3-6 week stretch of really good temperatures and increased snowfall chances.
 
Hard to believe we go all winter without at least 1 favorable period of a few weeks of some good chances for winter precip. And honestly we usually have a period in any winter but if the last two years are any indication of what’s to come.. I would be at least a little excited for that possibility. But also don’t forget .. more than likely we will torch at some point as well.. but hey that’s the name of the game in the south. If we could get that NAO block earlier than we did last year that could bode well for more impactful winter weather. 5D7B7674-A0D3-4854-A5C0-E9816C426F5A.png
 
Lickwx said:
Yea winter hasn’t torched like a true nina really ! No 2012 yet .
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I would say last December was a torch. 3rd warmest on record for KCLT and the last week saw lows everyday 5-10 warmer than average highs. A true Niña though would have seen warmth like that in February and that cold period the last 3 weeks of January and first half of February would have been before.
 
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